Below is a compilation - or average - of four projection systems for our beloved Kansas City Royals in 2009. Later, I might use advanced statistics such as wOBP or FIP. I want to link this project, which I worked on earlier today. Hope you enjoy. Contrast these with my projections, which I compiled months ago.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS - Probable 25-Man Roster Candidates
2009 Projection Averages
Using CHONE, ZiPS, Marcel, and Bill James
In my opinion, and in the opinions of bloggers I read from daily over at Royals Review, CHONE is probably the most accurate. Bill James, for whatever reason, is usually the most optimistic of the four. Marcel is the most pitcher-friendly, from what I have seen.
- Regarding the "percentages", I did the process scientifically. For example, I added up the average at-bat total and divided by 4....I didn't simply add the average total and then divide by 4.
Not all projections use games total, and none use 'games started' total. So that has been negated. Because sacrifice flies (necessary for the OBP calculation) were not given for several of these, I decided to simply take the averages of on-base percentage and slugging percentage directly. In other words, I simply added up the four percentages and divided by 4.
- Players with no options remaining - Brayan Pena, Ryan Shealy, and Shane Costa, have not been included. These players have little or no chance of making the roster, in my opinion. Tony Pena, on the other hands, stands a realistic chance, as he remained on the roster last year.
POS PLAYER AB H HR RBI SB/CS AVG OBP SLG
C Miguel Olivo 401 99 14 54 6/3 .247 .277 .418
C John Buck 368 86 13 49 1/2 .234 .308 .398
1B Mike Jacobs 468 123 24 79 2/1 .263 .318 .490
1B Billy Butler 520 151 15 78 1/1 .290 .351 .443
1B Ross Gload 291 82 5 36 3/2 .282 .328 .403
2B Alberto Callaspo 342 96 3 34 4/3 .281 .337 .377
2B Willie Bloom... 234 63 2 19 12/4 .269 .337 .332
SS Mike Aviles 532 154 12 66 9/4 .289 .327 .441
SS Tony Pena 325 78 3 27 5/3 .240 .267 .323
3B Alex Gordon 507 134 17 65 11/3 .266 .348 .445
LF David DeJesus 515 146 10 60 8/5 .283 .357 .417
CF Coco Crisp 452 122 8 49 20/7 .270 .332 .391
CF Mitch Maier 361 99 7 42 7/3 .274 .320 .399
RF Jose Guillen 536 144 19 84 3/1 .269 .319 .437
RF Mark Teahen 523 142 13 63 8/3 .272 .340 .427
*For ERA, the earned runs total wasn't available for the Bill James projection system. Therefore, I decided to add the ERA totals and then divide them by 4 to get the average ERA. Also, for ERA, the ZiPS projections gave partial innings (example: 194 1/3 IP) for pitchers. I simply added the IP totals and then divided by 4, and rounded to the nearest 1/3 inning.
*I omitted saves, as it was only available on the James and Marcel projection systems.
^Also, note that John Bale's projection does *not* include the Bill James projections. I looked on the Internet and tried to find the James projection for Bale, but could not find it. It's in the handbook, I know, but I would have to order it.
*Sidney Ponson has not been included, as he isn't on the 40-man roster.
POS PLAYER W L IP ERA BB K
SP Gil Meche 11 11 194.1 4.13 69 154
SP Zack Greinke 10 9 165.0 4.01 48 140
SP Kyle Davies 7 11 133.2 5.15 59 90
SP Luke Hochevar 6 9 131.2 5.00 48 83
SP Brian Bannister 8 11 159.1 4.80 51 95
^RP John Bale 2 3 42.1 4.33 14 31
RP Horacio Ramirez3 4 59 4.83 21 28
RP Doug Waechter 3 3 55 5.09 18 33
RP Joel Peralta 3 3 63 4.44 18 48
RP Robinson Tejeda4 5 72 4.62 40 59
RP Kyle Farnsworth 3 3 59 4.60 25 55
RP Ron Mahay 3 3 61.2 4.17 30 49
RP Juan Cruz 4 3 63 3.51 32 74
CP Joakim Soria 4 2 63.1 2.57 18 64
- The projections for certain players, like Juan Cruz or Willie Bloomquist, might be slightly different if every projection system projected these players as *Royals* rather than their old teams.
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