Tuesday, December 30, 2008

The 2009 Dempsey Projections

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls of all ages....

The 2009 first annual 'Dempsey' projections are now in. Below are my projections for every Royals player in 2009. My apologies to fellow family message boarders lelandinkc and RoyalLoyal, who (ironically?) share the same last name.

Keep in mind that this list isn't strictly scientific. I incorporated a number of elements in my nonscientific projections - age, body type, BABIP/LD% (or general luck) from the previous year, as well as other important factors like league and ballpark switching, and protection in the lineup.

I'm not pretending the accuracy of this list will mirror that of B.P. or Bill James. I maintain what some fans may regard as pessimism or optimism with certain players.

Anyway, you get the idea. Here are my projections for 2009, adjusted for playing time allocation.

C - John Buck .232/.297/.386, 189 AB, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS
C - Brayan Pena .275/.339/.408, 315 AB, 3 HR, 37 RBI, 2/1 SB/CS
C - Miguel Olivo (traded in June) .261/.283/.395, 102 AB, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 3/1 SB/CS
C - J.R. House .287/.361/.409, 52 AB, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS
1B - Mike Jacobs .271/.329/.476, 497 AB, 22 HR, 87 RBI, 1/0 SB/CS
1B - Kila Kaaihue .266/.367/.472, 162 AB, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS
1B - Ross Gload .291/.318/.377, 85 AB, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS
1B - Mike Stodolka .375/.444/.375, 7 AB, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS
2B - Alberto Callaspo .289/.347/.362, 523 AB, 2 HR, 47 RBI, 2/3 SB/CS
2B - Esteban German .276/.349/.389, 140 AB, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 2/0 SB/CS
2B - Jerry Hairston (F.A. acquisition) .250/.322/.395, 127 AB, 0 HR, 12 RBI, 2/1 SB/CS
SS - Mike Aviles .281/.324/.446, 560 AB, 12 HR, 59 RBI, 6/3 SB/CS
SS - Tony Pena .218/.237/.286, 72 AB, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1/0 SB/CS
3B - Alex Gordon .267/.361/.469, 601 AB, 23 HR, 87 RBI, 13/3 SB/CS
3B - Ed Lucas (LONG shot, but I'm daring here) .250/.297/.412, 17 AB, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS
LF - David DeJesus .290/.367/.408, 553 AB, 8 HR, 71 RBI, 7/3 SB/CS
LF - Chris Lubanski .182/.182/.273, 11 AB, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS
CF - Coco Crisp .262/.329/.386, 576 AB, 8 HR, 56 RBI, 26/10 SB/CS
CF - Mitch Maier .271/.322/.390, 152 AB, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3/2 SB/CS
RF - Jose Guillen .274/.325/.462, 429 AB, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 3/4 SB/CS
RF - Shane Costa .283/.349/.417, 182 AB, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 2/0 SB/CS
DH - Billy Butler .285/.351/.433, 490 AB, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS

SP - Zack Greinke 33 GS/33 G, 16-10, 3.25 ERA, 216.1 IP, 56 BB, 172 K
SP - Gil Meche 29 GS/29 G, 11-12, 4.36 ERA, 172.0 IP, 52 BB, 123 K
SP - Luke Hochevar 28 GS/28 G, 9-11, 4.69 ERA, 183.2 IP, 62 BB, 110 K
SP - Kyle Davies 26 GS/30 G, 12-7, 4.77 ERA, 165.0 IP, 67 BB, 113 K
SP - Brian Bannister 15 GS/16 G, 6-9, 5.18 ERA, 92.2 IP, 29 BB, 49 K
SP - Sean Marshall (why not? - acquired midseason) 17 GS/17 G, 4-6, 4.60 ERA, 102.0 IP, 43 BB, 76 K
RP - John Bale 43 G, 5-5, 4.30 ERA, 52.1 IP, 23 BB, 40 K
RP - Carlos Rosa 6 GS, 41 G, 4-2, 3.18 ERA, 45.1 IP, 14 BB, 33 K
RP - Robinson Tejeda 50 G, 3-4, 3.85 ERA, 61.0 IP, 29 BB, 50 K
RP - Kyle Farnsworth 61 G, 5-2, 4.52 ERA, 67.2 IP, 35 BB, 60 K
RP - Ron Mahay 53 G, 2-1, 3.86 ERA, 57.0 IP, 22 BB, 36 K
RP - Jimmy Gobble 9 G, 1-0, 4.85 ERA, 19.2 IP, 8 BB, 12 K
RP - Horacio Ramirez 6 GS/41 G, 2-1, 5.31 ERA, 32.1 IP, 16 BB, 19 K
RP - Julio Cesar Pimentel 5 G, 1-0, 3.88 ERA, 6.2 IP, 3 BB, 3 K
RP - Devon Lowery 33 G, 2-2, 5.63 ERA, 35.2 IP, 14 BB, 23 K
RP - Doug Waechter 26 G, 1-3, 6.13 ERA, 23.0 IP, 11 BB, 14 K
RP - Franquelis Osoria 15 G, 0-0, 7.20 ERA, 22.1 IP, 14 BB, 14 K
RP - Joakim Soria 61 G, 2-4, 2.39 ERA, 66.2 IP, 15 BB, 72 K, 45 SV/51 SVOPP
RP - Dusty Hughes 4 G, 0-0, 7.25 ERA, 3.2 IP, 1 BB, 3 K
RP - Yasuhiko Yabuta 9 G, 1-0, 5.43 ERA, 16.0 IP, 4 BB, 7 K

*Ryan Shealy claimed off waivers in Spring Training, and traded for a Player to be Named.
*Jerry Hairston, Jr. signed as Free Agent - short 1-year, $2MM or so signing.
*Joel Peralta traded for a Minor Leaguer during Spring Training.
*Mark Teahen traded for Minor League pitcher in Spring Training.

2 comments:

Ray W said...

I say Gil gets 200 Innings pitched again in 09'
You think Soria will blow 6 SV opps ?

Royals Nation said...

Yeah...they'll bring him into some tight situations. I also realized I had some math wrong (specifically, the #s for Lucas and Lubanski, which I later edited). Ah, well. I probably should have 'pooled' those numbers, instead of assigned them to individual players. Also, might Hairston have to be replaced with Bloomquist?