Next Year's Royals: Punt 2011...and Then We'll Do It Live!

My 2011 Royals Organization:

Below, I've provided a combination of my predictions as well as what I believe each Minor League affiliate would look like as of Opening Day next year. I understand that some players, like Yuniesky Betancourt, have probably guaranteed at least another majority of a season with the ballclub. Therefore, this is merely a *combination* of what *will* happen and what I believe *should* happen. If I were Assistant General Manager to Dayton Moore and had autonomy on farm direction, here is how I believe our organization should be comprised on Opening Day 2011. Keep in mind the trade offers are hypothetical scenarios. I do believe they fall somewhere on the realm of reality, though. So no Teahen for A-Rod scenarios.

- Trade Zack Greinke to NYA for Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, Slade Heathcott, and DJ Mitchell (as mostly mentioned in my 2013 Royals thread)

- Trade David DeJesus and Joakim Soria to BOS for Ryan Kalish, Yamaico Navarro, and Reymond Fuentes (as mentioned in my 2013 Royals thread)

Trade Josh Fields for a player to be named

With this roster, I'm operating under the assumption that we should punt 2011 and go for broke with 2012 and beyond. This involves trading our household commodities at the Major League level for prospects and establishing one of the best farm systems in the history of baseball. I would advocate limiting our Free Agent spending money in the 2010-11 offseason to less than ~$10 million. With many of our current prospects, even prospects prior to 2010 who are currently on our Major League roster, I would hold them back to preserve their arbitration clock and service time, overall.

Also, keep in mind that the list - particularly in the Minors - might not be complete. I might be forgetting an injured player or two. Hopefully no more, though. Yes, this is probably a 100-loss team. To Hell with it. Punt 2011 and go for broke with a world class farm system. Also, some of these Minor League rosters are over the 24 (or 25-man) limit. That will work itself out...some players will get injured.

MLB Kansas City:

C Jason Kendall

C Brayan Pena

1B Billy Butler

1B Kila Ka'aihue

2B Mike Aviles

2B Chris Getz

SS Yuniesky Betancourt

3B Wilson Betemit

3B Ed Lucas

LF Alex Gordon

CF Gregor Blanco

RF Jai Miller

RF Gabe Gross (Free Agent)

SP Luke Hochevar

SP Bryan Bullington

SP Kyle Davies

SP Bruce Chen

SP Philip Humber

RP Federico Castaneda

RP Gil Meche

RP Robinson Tejeda

RP Kanekoa Texeira

RP Dusty Hughes

RP Jesse Chavez

CP J.J. Putz (Free Agent)

DL Erik Bedard (Free Agent)

AAA Omaha:

C Jesus Montero

C Lucas May (I would wait until Kendall is traded to promote him to MLB. He needs to play everyday. If this means either of him or Montero are given spot-duty at DH in Omaha, then so be it).

1B Clint Robinson

1B Ernesto Mejia

2B Johnny Giavotella

2B Marc Maddox

3B Mike Moustakas

SS Yamaico Navarro

LF Ryan Kalish

LF Paulo Orlando

CF David Lough

CF Derrick Robinson

RF Jordan Parraz

SP Edgar Osuna

SP Everett Teaford

SP Mario Santiago

SP Blaine Hardy

SP D.J. Mitchell

RP Greg Holland

RP Blake Wood

RP Louis Coleman

RP Tim Collins

RP Brian Anderson

RP Patrick Keating

RP Aaron Hartsock

AA Northwest Arkansas:

C Manny Pina

C Salvador Perez

1B Eric Hosmer

2B Kurt Mertins

3B Jamie Romak

SS Jeff Bianchi

SS Chris McConnell

LF Tim Smith

CF Jarrod Dyson

CF Adrian Ortiz

RF Nick Van Stratten

RF Nick Francis

SP Mike Montgomery

SP John Lamb

SP Chris Dwyer

SP Will Smith

SP Manny Banuelos

PB Buddy Baumann

PB Alex Caldera

RP Eduardo Paulino

RP Blake Johnson

RP Barry Bowden

RP Brandon Sisk

RP Henry Barrera

RP Brendan Lafferty

A+ Wilmington:

C Ben Theriot

C Jose Bonilla

1B Joey Lewis

2B Rey Navarro

SS Christian Colon

3B Ryan Stovall

3B Adam Frost

LF Carlo Testa

CF Patrick Norris

CF Slade Heathcott

CF Reymond Fuentes

RF Wil Myers

SP Aaron Crow

SP Tim Melville

SP Bryan Paukovits

SP Elisaul Pimentel

SP Tyler Sample

RP Kevin Chapman

RP Ryan Dennick

RP Josh Worrell

RP Manauris Baez

RP Ivor Hodgson

RP Eric Basurto

RP Scott Kelley

A Burlington:

C Travis Jones

C Juan Graterol

C Kevin David

1B Jacob Kuebler

1B Murray Watts

2B Deivy Batista

2B Yowill Espinal

SS Alex McClure

SS Gerard Hall

LF Tim Ferguson

CF Whit Merrifield

CF Hilton Richardson

CF Cameron Monger

SP Tyler Sample

SP Keaton Hayenga

SP Kelvin Herrera

SP Crawford Simmons

SP Mike Mariot

SP Greg Billo

RP Dusty Odenbach

RP Matt Mitchell

RP Brandon Barrow

RP Matt Morizio

RP Chas Byrne

RP Brennon Martin

RP Nick Graffeo

RP Robert Penny

Source: Royals, Grandal Have Pre-Draft Agreement, Will Select Him Fourth Overall on Monday

According to Frankie Piliere at MLB Fanhouse and “multiple industry sources”, the Royals have made a pre-draft agreement with University of Miami catcher Yasmani Grandal and will select him as the fourth overall draft pick in the first round of Monday’s amateur draft. The Royals had been high on the catcher from the get-go. Industry sources are “confident” that the deal has agreed to, though details of this contract are not yet available and likely will not be available until after the draft.

Read more at Royals Prospects (writing courtesy of yours truly).

My Favorite Statistics

I posted this over on Royals Talk but I thought I'd share here, as well.

By the way, if you can't tell, Royals Prospects and the 610 official site consume almost all of my available time "baseballing" it on the webospheres. (Oh, yeah, Royals Nation Fantasy Baseball also plays a prolific role in my America's pastime dorkdom). Although I don't post nearly as often on sites like Royals Review, I read and frequent those sites like it's my job. I will continue to be extremely busy this summer, but know that I post rather rigidly detailed, daily Minor League reports over on Royals Prospects, the unofficial site of the Royals Minor League developments. On an unrelated note, though, there is one website in particular that has gone decidedly downhill due to shortsighted, in my opinion, business decisions by the powers in charge have made, resulting in discussion on the site plumbing the depths, shall we say. It has also gone downhill for other reasons but of course...for every man or woman his or her own.

Anyway, here is the post entailing some of my favorite modern-day baseball statistics:

Some of my favorite stats include....but are not necessarily limited to these. I am a stat-junkie so I find these fascinating and perhaps the best statistical evaluators of talent, though I'm not prone to using these in everyday speech or even writing.

For pitchers:

xFIP
FIP
tRA
K:BB
WAR
LOB%
HR/FB
$-Value (per Fangraphs)
BABIP
LD%
Pitch Type (and % used)
pLI (for relievers)

For offense:

wOBA
LD%
BABIP
LD% vs. GB% vs. FB%
HR/FB
WAR
$-Value
(I also like the basic AVG/OBP/SLG)

For fielding:

+ / -
Total Zone
UZR/150
OOZ

For baserunning:

Net SB
CS% or SB%
+ / - (you know, runs cost or added on basepaths)

Tools also play a prolific role in my player evaluations. But this post doesn't encompass pure scouting data, it encompasses something that would make Dr. Thunder proud. Am I right or am I right?

Top 50 Royals Prospects

Top 50 Royals Prospects

I intended to post this list prior to the season starting so my apologies on being late to the party. Here is my top 50 Royals prospects list for 2010. Keep in mind that I tend to be lenient with my perceptions of pure upside. In other words, I tend to rank 17- or 18-year olds with tremendous potential but little results higher than most sports writers. I also tend to be a bit harsh on players in the upper minors who I feel have more limited potential. I'll also include brief predictions at a later date. (I refuse to call Minor League conjectures "projections" as tools and development generate so much Minor League production, thus making sound "projections" difficult to make). Keep in mind that I'll try to prevent biases in terms of how these players have produced in roughly the first week and a half of Minor League contests. Keep in mind the player comparisons provided are the versions of that player in 2010, not in general.

***** = Perennial MVP candidate/Ace starter (Comparison: Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Zack Greinke)
****1/2 = Perennial all-star and occasional MVP candidate/#2 starter (Comp.: Dustin Pedroia, Matt Holliday, Josh Beckett)
**** = Occasional all-star and occasional MVP candidate/#2 or #3 starter (Comp.: Carl Crawford, Ian Kinsler, Javier Vazquez)
***1/2 = Above average player/#3 starter (Comp.: David DeJesus, Michael Young, Andy Pettitte)
*** = Average player/#3 starter (Comp.: Carlos Lee, Adam LaRoche, Bronson Arroyo)
**1/2 = Platoon player/part-time player/#4 starter (Comp.: Luke Scott, Jhonny Peralta, Jon Garland)
** = Bench player/reserve/#4 starter (Comp.: Mitch Maier, Nick Punto, Brian Bannister)
*1/2 = 24th & 25th roster men/#5 starter (Comp.: Scott Thorman, Emilio Bonifacio, Brandon Duckworth, )

Keep in mind that relief pitchers will naturally receive higher stars. Here are their rankings.

***** = Relief ace (Comp.: Joakim Soria circa 2009)
****1/2 = Excellent reliever (Comp.: Scot Shields circa 2006)
**** = Very good reliever (Comp.: Octavio Dotel circa 2004)
***1/2 = Above average reliever (Comp.: David Riske circa 2007)
*** = Average reliever (Comp.: Ron Mahay circa 2005)

Anything below three star relievers will very likely will not appear on my top 50 list.

1. Mike Montgomery (****1/2)
2. Aaron Crow (****1/2)
3. Wil Myers (****)
4. Eric Hosmer (****)
5. Noel Arguelles (****)
6. Dan Duffy (****)
7. John Lamb (****)
8. David Lough (***1/2)
9. Chris Dwyer (***1/2)
10. Mike Moustakas (***1/2)
11. Tim Melville (***1/2)
12. Cheslor Cuthbert (***)
13. Kila Ka'aihue (***)
14. Jordan Parraz (***)
15. Kelvin Herrera (***)
16. Johnny Giavotella (***)
17. Jeff Bianchi (***)
18. Carlos Rosa [****]
19. Tyler Sample (***)
20. Matt Mitchell (***)
21. Crawford Simmons (***)
22. Tim Smith (**1/2)
23. Keaton Hayenga (**1/2)
24. Louis Coleman [****]
25. Hilton Richardson (**1/2)
26. Carlos Fortuna (**1/2)
27. Carlo Testa (**1/2)
28. Clint Robinson (**)
29. Patrick Keating [****]
30. Justin Trapp (**)
31. Salvador Perez (**)
32. Jason Taylor (**)
33. Manny Pina (**)
34. Chris Hayes [***1/2]
35. Joey Lewis (**)
36. Brandon Sisk [***1/2]
37. Mario Santiago (**)
38. Greg Billo (**)
39. Irving Falu (**)
40. Victor Marte [***]
41. Jose Bonilla (**)
42. Alex Caldera (**)
43. Dusty Odenbach [***]
44. Yowill Espinal (**)
45. Greg Holland [***]
46. Edgar Osuna [***]
47. Blaine Hardy [***]
48. Eric Basurto [***]
49. Ben Theriot (**)
50. Scott Kelley [***]

Soria waits until the stars align...Royals lose

I discussed the latest Royals game briefly today with someone I work with. Someone who possesses barely a passing interest and limited knowledge for the sport of baseball. Oh, sure, he has watched and attended sports games in his life but he really knows very little about the game....or rather, The Game.

After the Royals bullpen promptly and predictably gave away the game on a most joyous of Tuesday afternoon, he turned his head to my general direction and muttered (and I'm paraphrasing), "you know, I want to like baseball, but I don't understand some of the tactics. Why are closers almost never used? You'd think that since teams pay them so much money, they would be used more often."

Later, he exclaimed (and again I'm paraphrasing), "certain elements of baseball strategy I just don't understand. Much of the conventional wisdom in baseball today...is just inherently flawed."

We could have delved into more specific issues, particularly regarding our Royals ballclub, but in my opinion, he's merely a rational mortal who possesses very little knowledge about the game. In this instance, though.....he did possess knowledge. He hasn't been bred to believe RBI are the end-all, be-all offensive statistic and that saves are reserved only for the ninth inning but then again he hasn't been bred to believe anything at all regarding the sport. Sometimes, a fresh perspective coupled with an ability to think critically and independently......helps.

Peruse this boxscore and perhaps you'll find what I'm talking about.