Monday, April 6, 2009

TRT 2009 MLB Predictions

Below are predictions for each team, preceeding (well, by two days) the 2009 season. My postseason and award predictions are below. In the parentheses, I've provided my prediction for "Team Most Valuable Player (M.V.P.)", or the top Dempsey-predicted WAR player and pitcher for 2009. Also, I've provided predictions for my awardees, including basic statistics and sabermetrics alike.

* = Wildcard Team

AL West:
1. Los Angeles 92-70, - (Vladimir Guerrero, John Lackey)
2. Texas 84-78, 8 GB (Josh Hamilton, Kevin Millwood)
3. Oakland 78-84, 14 (Eric Chavez, Joey Devine)
4. Seattle 71-91, 21 (Ichiro Suzuki, Felix Hernandez)

AL Central:
1. Minnesota 86-76, - (Joe Mauer, Scott Baker)
2. Cleveland 84-78, 2 (Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee)
3. Kansas City 79-83, 7 (David DeJesus, Zack Greinke)
4. Detroit 77-85, 9 (Curtis Granderson, Justin Verlander)
5. Chicago 76-86, 10 (Carlos Quentin, Mark Buehrle)

AL East:
1. Boston 95-67, - (Kevin Youkilis, Josh Beckett)
*2. New York 93-69, 2 (Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia)
3. Tampa Bay 89-73, 6 (B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir)
4. Toronto 80-82, 15 (Vernon Wells, Roy Halladay)
5. Baltimore 69-93, 16 (Nick Markakis, Jeremy Guthrie)

League Record: 1153-1115

NL West:
1. Los Angeles 92-70, - (Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley)
*2. Arizona 90-72, 2 (Justin Upton, Brandon Webb)
3. San Diego 78-84, 14 (Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young - Peavy gets traded mid-season)
4. Colorado 74-88, 18 (Chris Iannetta, Ubaldo Jimenez)
5. San Francisco 73-89, 19 (Aaron Rowand, Tim Lincecum)

NL Central:
1. Chicago 93-69, - (Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano)
2. Cincinnati 83-79, 10 (Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez)
3. Milwaukee 79-83, 14 (Ryan Braun, Yovany Gallardo)
4. St. Louis 73-89, 20 (Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright)
5. Houston 72-90, 21 (Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt)
6. Pittsburgh 69-93, 24 (Ryan Doumit, Paul Maholm)

NL East:
1. New York 94-68, - (David Wright, Johan Santana)
2. Atlanta 87-75, 7 (Chipper Jones, Derek Lowe)
3. Philadelphia 85-77, 9 (Chase Utley, Cole Hamels)
4. Washington 70-92, 24 (Elijah Dukes, John Lannan)
5. Florida 66-96, 28 (Hanley Ramirez, Ricky Nolasco)

League Record: 1278 - 1314

ALDS: Minnesota over New York (in 5)
ALDS: Los Angeles over Boston (in 5)
NLDS: Arizona over Chicago (in 4)
NLDS: New York over Los Angeles (in 4)
ALCS: Los Angeles over Minnesota (in 5)
NLCS: Arizona over New York (in 7)
WS: Los Angeles over Arizona (in 6)

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (Prediction: .285/.372/.501/.873, 30 HR, 84 RBI, 31/7 SB/CS, 128 OPS+, +7 defender, 6.0 WAR)
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis (Prediction: .336/.440/.615/1.055, 40 HR, 112 RBI, 4/3 SB/CS, 164 OPS+, +8 defender, 9.4 WAR)
(for the first time in a long time [it seems, I think], two MVP's for non-playoff clubs in the same season....I think Pujols is hands down THE best player in MLB).
AL Cy: Felix Hernandez, Seattle (stretch, I know - Prediction: 15-11, 3.27 ERA, 211.2 IP, 74 BB, 179 K, 33 GS, 130 ERA+, 4.1 WAR, 3.66 FIP)
NL Cy: Brandon Webb, Arizona (Prediction: 18-9, 3.22 ERA, 231.0 IP, 63 BB, 186 K, 34 GS, 141 ERA+, 5.6 WAR, 3.73 FIP)
AL ROY: Matt Wieters, Baltimore (Prediction: .276/.345/.446/.791, 13 HR, 67 RBI, 2/1 SB/CS, 107 OPS+, +1 defender, 2.3 WAR)
NL ROY: Dexter Fowler, Colorado (Prediction: .283/.351/.412/.763, 8 HR, 63 RBI, 23/11 SB/CS, 102 OPS+, +0 defender, 1.9 WAR)
AL Manager: Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota (Twins exceed many expectations again, riding an excellent pitching staff to another October)
NL Manager: Bobby Cox, Atlanta (Bobby Cox, former G.M., works the magic again)
AL Fireman: Mariano Rivera, New York (Prediction: 5-3, 2.17 ERA, 67.2 IP, 13 BB, 51 K, 67 G, 42/46 SV/SVO, 155 ERA+, 2.9 WAR, 2.75 FIP)
NL Fireman: Francisco Rodriguez, New York (Prediction: 3-4, 2.65 ERA, 74.2 IP, 23 BB, 77 K, 70 G, 46/51 SV/SVO, 148 ERA+, 2.5 WAR, 2.77 FIP)

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