Retaining Our Core: The Long-Term Contracts

I recently posted this over at Royals Corner. Let me know what you think.

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Yesterday, I took some time to compile a list of possible long-term contract scenarios for players within our young core. Anyway, these are rough scenarios, so let me know what you think.

Obviously, whether it's too early to discuss these scenarios is debatable. There are so many 'if's' involved. Will Glass open up payroll? Will we commit to all of these players? Will we commit to any of these players?

It's my opinion that I would rather commit to as many of these players as possible than land any difference-making player on the Free Agent market in the next 2-3 years, at least. Payroll will tighten up significantly toward 2011.

Alex Gordon
Signed to 5-year, $34MM contract Before 2009 season
2009 $1.5MM (25)
2010 $4.5MM (26)
2011 $7MM (27)
2012 $9MM (28)
2013 $12MM (29)
Option Year: 2014 (club) - $12MM (30)
Option Year: 2015 (club) - $14MM (31)
Option Year: 2016 (mutual) - $16MM (32)
*It's imperative that we retain him through his prime. He was a backyard-area Royals fan growing up, and wants to remain in K.C. Although I'm not a big advocate for P.R. moves, this needs to get done.

Billy Butler
Signed to 5-year, $40MM contract Before 2009 season
2009 $1.5MM (23)
2010 $3MM (24)
2011 $5MM (25)
2012 $7.5MM (26)
2013 $12MM (27)
Option Year: 2014 (club) - $14MM (28)
Option Year: 2015 (club) - $14MM (29)
*Another bat imperative to retain. His lack of defensive ability will diminish his value, but I think he could still be an average first baseman, eventually. Retain him through the age 29 season to ensure the bulk of his prime.

Joakim Soria
Signed to 5-year, $29MM contract Mid-2008
2009 $1.5MM (25)
2010 $3MM (26)
2011 $4.5MM (27)
2012 $8MM (28)
2013 $12MM (29)
Option Year: 2014 (club) - $14MM (30)
*Relievers should never be obtained to long-term deals for small-market clubs, but Soria is the exception, because of his possibility of starting.

Brian Bannister
Signed to 5-year, $32MM contract Mid-2008
2009 $1.5MM (27)
2010 $3.5MM (28)
2011 $6MM (29)
2012 $9MM (30)
2013 $12MM (31)
Option Year: 2014 (club) - $12MM (32)
*Smart pitcher who could last well into his 30's.

Zack Greinke
Signed to 6-year, $67MM contract Before 2009 season
2009 $5MM (25)
2010 $8MM (26)
2011 $10MM (27)
2012 $14MM (28)
2013 $14MM (29)
2014 $16MM (30)
Option Year: 2015 (club) - $16MM (31)
Option Year: 2016 (club) - $16MM (32)
*Phenomenal talent, and could - at the absolute worst - be an overpaid but dominant closer in disastrous scenario.

Luke Hochevar
Signed to 5-year, $42MM contract After 2009 season
2010 $1MM (26)
2011 $3MM (27)
2012 $5MM (28)
2013 $8MM (29)
2014 $10MM (30)
Option Year: 2015 (club) - $12MM (31)
*Matt Morris-like career is the most likely. That's still extremely valuable from the #3 slot.

Here's who I would go year to year with. Although I believe a few of these guys will become serviceable or even slightly above average big-league players down the round, they aren't good enough to warrant a long-term deal, and we need to spend our limited resources only where it's absolutely necessary. As for Moustakas, I included him in this group, as I believe it's still too soon to determine what will happen, and he won't be arb-eligible until probably 2013, and FA eligible until at least 2016.

Year-to-year: John Buck (Not probable to remain past Free Agency)
Year-to-year: Mark Teahen (Possible trade-bait)
Year-to-year: Alberto Callaspo (Great .300/.340/.400 type solution, but long term? I'm doubtful)
Year-to-year: Mike Moustakas (Too soon)
Year-to-year: Ryan Shealy (At a career crossroads)
Year-to-year: Tony Pena (Not a solution)
Year-to-year: Jimmy Gobble (Effective - but replaceable - LOOGY)
Year-to-year: Leo Nunez (Effective - but replaceable - reliever)

Year - Total Committed Payroll /Projected Overall Payroll:
2009 - $11MM ($70MM) - $42.2MM already tied (Meche, Guillen, Yabuta, many more)
2010 - $23MM ($80MM) - $23MM already tied (Meche & Guillen)
2011 - $35.5MM ($80MM) - $11MM already tied (Meche)
2012 - $52.5MM ($90MM)
2013 - $72MM ($90MM)
2014 - $78MM ($95MM)
2015 - $42MM ($95MM)
2016 - $32MM ($100MM)