Thursday, September 13, 2007

K.C. Royals: Underachievers?

I thought everyone might be interested in delving into a little Pythagorean W-L/Expected W-L discussion, and maybe answer this trivia question along the way.

Who has been the "unluckiest" team in baseball, in terms of run differential? Hint: It's not the Yankees, who underperformed their run differential until July, when they started winning five out of every seven games.

Give up?

It's the Kansas City Royals - whose "Expected W-L" now stands at 69-76. That's a far cry from their 63-82 mark of September 14. Since there are 17 games remaining, we would have to finish about 13-4 or 14-3 just to reach our "expected" record.

Compare our record with that of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have been outscored this season 666 to 643 (a differential of 23). Their "Expected W-L" is nearly identical to ours....71-76.

The Chicago White Sox currently sit 1.5 games behind the Royals, yet their "Expected" record is the worst in baseball, 58-88. The Cardinals, who long overperformed their X W-L, are now starting to fall back to earth, after losing seven in a row.

I understand we have blown out our opponents on several occasions this year, and the D-Backs have been annihilated on a few occasions, but how can one explain this "unluckiness"? Or is "luck" even involved? It's not as if offense or pitching in blowouts can be negated, right?

If it isn't luck, who is to blame? However, if it is luck, that only means one thing. We're bound for some positive karma in 2008!


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