The Royal Treatment

Next Year's Royals: Punt 2011...and Then We'll Do It Live!

2010-08-24T23:32:00.001-05:00

My 2011 Royals Organization:

Below, I've provided a combination of my predictions as well as what I believe each Minor League affiliate would look like as of Opening Day next year. I understand that some players, like Yuniesky Betancourt, have probably guaranteed at least another majority of a season with the ballclub. Therefore, this is merely a *combination* of what *will* happen and what I believe *should* happen. If I were Assistant General Manager to Dayton Moore and had autonomy on farm direction, here is how I believe our organization should be comprised on Opening Day 2011. Keep in mind the trade offers are hypothetical scenarios. I do believe they fall somewhere on the realm of reality, though. So no Teahen for A-Rod scenarios.

- Trade Zack Greinke to NYA for Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, Slade Heathcott, and DJ Mitchell (as mostly mentioned in my 2013 Royals thread)

- Trade David DeJesus and Joakim Soria to BOS for Ryan Kalish, Yamaico Navarro, and Reymond Fuentes (as mentioned in my 2013 Royals thread)

Trade Josh Fields for a player to be named

With this roster, I'm operating under the assumption that we should punt 2011 and go for broke with 2012 and beyond. This involves trading our household commodities at the Major League level for prospects and establishing one of the best farm systems in the history of baseball. I would advocate limiting our Free Agent spending money in the 2010-11 offseason to less than ~$10 million. With many of our current prospects, even prospects prior to 2010 who are currently on our Major League roster, I would hold them back to preserve their arbitration clock and service time, overall.

Also, keep in mind that the list - particularly in the Minors - might not be complete. I might be forgetting an injured player or two. Hopefully no more, though. Yes, this is probably a 100-loss team. To Hell with it. Punt 2011 and go for broke with a world class farm system. Also, some of these Minor League rosters are over the 24 (or 25-man) limit. That will work itself out...some players will get injured.

MLB Kansas City:

C Jason Kendall

C Brayan Pena

1B Billy Butler

1B Kila Ka'aihue

2B Mike Aviles

2B Chris Getz

SS Yuniesky Betancourt

3B Wilson Betemit

3B Ed Lucas

LF Alex Gordon

CF Gregor Blanco

RF Jai Miller

RF Gabe Gross (Free Agent)

SP Luke Hochevar

SP Bryan Bullington

SP Kyle Davies

SP Bruce Chen

SP Philip Humber

RP Federico Castaneda

RP Gil Meche

RP Robinson Tejeda

RP Kanekoa Texeira

RP Dusty Hughes

RP Jesse Chavez

CP J.J. Putz (Free Agent)

DL Erik Bedard (Free Agent)

AAA Omaha:

C Jesus Montero

C Lucas May (I would wait until Kendall is traded to promote him to MLB. He needs to play everyday. If this means either of him or Montero are given spot-duty at DH in Omaha, then so be it).

1B Clint Robinson

1B Ernesto Mejia

2B Johnny Giavotella

2B Marc Maddox

3B Mike Moustakas

SS Yamaico Navarro

LF Ryan Kalish

LF Paulo Orlando

CF David Lough

CF Derrick Robinson

RF Jordan Parraz

SP Edgar Osuna

SP Everett Teaford

SP Mario Santiago

SP Blaine Hardy

SP D.J. Mitchell

RP Greg Holland

RP Blake Wood

RP Louis Coleman

RP Tim Collins

RP Brian Anderson

RP Patrick Keating

RP Aaron Hartsock

AA Northwest Arkansas:

C Manny Pina

C Salvador Perez

1B Eric Hosmer

2B Kurt Mertins

3B Jamie Romak

SS Jeff Bianchi

SS Chris McConnell

LF Tim Smith

CF Jarrod Dyson

CF Adrian Ortiz

RF Nick Van Stratten

RF Nick Francis

SP Mike Montgomery

SP John Lamb

SP Chris Dwyer

SP Will Smith

SP Manny Banuelos

PB Buddy Baumann

PB Alex Caldera

RP Eduardo Paulino

RP Blake Johnson

RP Barry Bowden

RP Brandon Sisk

RP Henry Barrera

RP Brendan Lafferty

A+ Wilmington:

C Ben Theriot

C Jose Bonilla

1B Joey Lewis

2B Rey Navarro

SS Christian Colon

3B Ryan Stovall

3B Adam Frost

LF Carlo Testa

CF Patrick Norris

CF Slade Heathcott

CF Reymond Fuentes

RF Wil Myers

SP Aaron Crow

SP Tim Melville

SP Bryan Paukovits

SP Elisaul Pimentel

SP Tyler Sample

RP Kevin Chapman

RP Ryan Dennick

RP Josh Worrell

RP Manauris Baez

RP Ivor Hodgson

RP Eric Basurto

RP Scott Kelley

A Burlington:

C Travis Jones

C Juan Graterol

C Kevin David

1B Jacob Kuebler

1B Murray Watts

2B Deivy Batista

2B Yowill Espinal

SS Alex McClure

SS Gerard Hall

LF Tim Ferguson

CF Whit Merrifield

CF Hilton Richardson

CF Cameron Monger

SP Tyler Sample

SP Keaton Hayenga

SP Kelvin Herrera

SP Crawford Simmons

SP Mike Mariot

SP Greg Billo

RP Dusty Odenbach

RP Matt Mitchell

RP Brandon Barrow

RP Matt Morizio

RP Chas Byrne

RP Brennon Martin

RP Nick Graffeo

RP Robert Penny

Source: Royals, Grandal Have Pre-Draft Agreement, Will Select Him Fourth Overall on Monday

2010-06-04T21:32:00.001-05:00

According to Frankie Piliere at MLB Fanhouse and “multiple industry sources”, the Royals have made a pre-draft agreement with University of Miami catcher Yasmani Grandal and will select him as the fourth overall draft pick in the first round of Monday’s amateur draft. The Royals had been high on the catcher from the get-go. Industry sources are “confident” that the deal has agreed to, though details of this contract are not yet available and likely will not be available until after the draft.

Read more at Royals Prospects (writing courtesy of yours truly).

My Favorite Statistics

2010-05-31T01:02:00.007-05:00

I posted this over on Royals Talk but I thought I'd share here, as well.

By the way, if you can't tell, Royals Prospects and the 610 official site consume almost all of my available time "baseballing" it on the webospheres. (Oh, yeah, Royals Nation Fantasy Baseball also plays a prolific role in my America's pastime dorkdom). Although I don't post nearly as often on sites like Royals Review, I read and frequent those sites like it's my job. I will continue to be extremely busy this summer, but know that I post rather rigidly detailed, daily Minor League reports over on Royals Prospects, the unofficial site of the Royals Minor League developments. On an unrelated note, though, there is one website in particular that has gone decidedly downhill due to shortsighted, in my opinion, business decisions by the powers in charge have made, resulting in discussion on the site plumbing the depths, shall we say. It has also gone downhill for other reasons but of course...for every man or woman his or her own.

Anyway, here is the post entailing some of my favorite modern-day baseball statistics:

Some of my favorite stats include....but are not necessarily limited to these. I am a stat-junkie so I find these fascinating and perhaps the best statistical evaluators of talent, though I'm not prone to using these in everyday speech or even writing.

For pitchers:

xFIP
FIP
tRA
K:BB
WAR
LOB%
HR/FB
$-Value (per Fangraphs)
BABIP
LD%
Pitch Type (and % used)
pLI (for relievers)

For offense:

wOBA
LD%
BABIP
LD% vs. GB% vs. FB%
HR/FB
WAR
$-Value
(I also like the basic AVG/OBP/SLG)

For fielding:

+ / -
Total Zone
UZR/150
OOZ

For baserunning:

Net SB
CS% or SB%
+ / - (you know, runs cost or added on basepaths)

Tools also play a prolific role in my player evaluations. But this post doesn't encompass pure scouting data, it encompasses something that would make Dr. Thunder proud. Am I right or am I right?

Top 50 Royals Prospects

2010-04-20T18:24:00.002-05:00

Top 50 Royals Prospects

I intended to post this list prior to the season starting so my apologies on being late to the party. Here is my top 50 Royals prospects list for 2010. Keep in mind that I tend to be lenient with my perceptions of pure upside. In other words, I tend to rank 17- or 18-year olds with tremendous potential but little results higher than most sports writers. I also tend to be a bit harsh on players in the upper minors who I feel have more limited potential. I'll also include brief predictions at a later date. (I refuse to call Minor League conjectures "projections" as tools and development generate so much Minor League production, thus making sound "projections" difficult to make). Keep in mind that I'll try to prevent biases in terms of how these players have produced in roughly the first week and a half of Minor League contests. Keep in mind the player comparisons provided are the versions of that player in 2010, not in general.

***** = Perennial MVP candidate/Ace starter (Comparison: Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Zack Greinke)
****1/2 = Perennial all-star and occasional MVP candidate/#2 starter (Comp.: Dustin Pedroia, Matt Holliday, Josh Beckett)
**** = Occasional all-star and occasional MVP candidate/#2 or #3 starter (Comp.: Carl Crawford, Ian Kinsler, Javier Vazquez)
***1/2 = Above average player/#3 starter (Comp.: David DeJesus, Michael Young, Andy Pettitte)
*** = Average player/#3 starter (Comp.: Carlos Lee, Adam LaRoche, Bronson Arroyo)
**1/2 = Platoon player/part-time player/#4 starter (Comp.: Luke Scott, Jhonny Peralta, Jon Garland)
** = Bench player/reserve/#4 starter (Comp.: Mitch Maier, Nick Punto, Brian Bannister)
*1/2 = 24th & 25th roster men/#5 starter (Comp.: Scott Thorman, Emilio Bonifacio, Brandon Duckworth, )

Keep in mind that relief pitchers will naturally receive higher stars. Here are their rankings.

***** = Relief ace (Comp.: Joakim Soria circa 2009)
****1/2 = Excellent reliever (Comp.: Scot Shields circa 2006)
**** = Very good reliever (Comp.: Octavio Dotel circa 2004)
***1/2 = Above average reliever (Comp.: David Riske circa 2007)
*** = Average reliever (Comp.: Ron Mahay circa 2005)

Anything below three star relievers will very likely will not appear on my top 50 list.

1. Mike Montgomery (****1/2)
2. Aaron Crow (****1/2)
3. Wil Myers (****)
4. Eric Hosmer (****)
5. Noel Arguelles (****)
6. Dan Duffy (****)
7. John Lamb (****)
8. David Lough (***1/2)
9. Chris Dwyer (***1/2)
10. Mike Moustakas (***1/2)
11. Tim Melville (***1/2)
12. Cheslor Cuthbert (***)
13. Kila Ka'aihue (***)
14. Jordan Parraz (***)
15. Kelvin Herrera (***)
16. Johnny Giavotella (***)
17. Jeff Bianchi (***)
18. Carlos Rosa [****]
19. Tyler Sample (***)
20. Matt Mitchell (***)
21. Crawford Simmons (***)
22. Tim Smith (**1/2)
23. Keaton Hayenga (**1/2)
24. Louis Coleman [****]
25. Hilton Richardson (**1/2)
26. Carlos Fortuna (**1/2)
27. Carlo Testa (**1/2)
28. Clint Robinson (**)
29. Patrick Keating [****]
30. Justin Trapp (**)
31. Salvador Perez (**)
32. Jason Taylor (**)
33. Manny Pina (**)
34. Chris Hayes [***1/2]
35. Joey Lewis (**)
36. Brandon Sisk [***1/2]
37. Mario Santiago (**)
38. Greg Billo (**)
39. Irving Falu (**)
40. Victor Marte [***]
41. Jose Bonilla (**)
42. Alex Caldera (**)
43. Dusty Odenbach [***]
44. Yowill Espinal (**)
45. Greg Holland [***]
46. Edgar Osuna [***]
47. Blaine Hardy [***]
48. Eric Basurto [***]
49. Ben Theriot (**)
50. Scott Kelley [***]

Soria waits until the stars align...Royals lose

2010-04-14T14:05:00.002-05:00

I discussed the latest Royals game briefly today with someone I work with. Someone who possesses barely a passing interest and limited knowledge for the sport of baseball. Oh, sure, he has watched and attended sports games in his life but he really knows very little about the game....or rather, The Game.

After the Royals bullpen promptly and predictably gave away the game on a most joyous of Tuesday afternoon, he turned his head to my general direction and muttered (and I'm paraphrasing), "you know, I want to like baseball, but I don't understand some of the tactics. Why are closers almost never used? You'd think that since teams pay them so much money, they would be used more often."

Later, he exclaimed (and again I'm paraphrasing), "certain elements of baseball strategy I just don't understand. Much of the conventional wisdom in baseball today...is just inherently flawed."

We could have delved into more specific issues, particularly regarding our Royals ballclub, but in my opinion, he's merely a rational mortal who possesses very little knowledge about the game. In this instance, though.....he did possess knowledge. He hasn't been bred to believe RBI are the end-all, be-all offensive statistic and that saves are reserved only for the ninth inning but then again he hasn't been bred to believe anything at all regarding the sport. Sometimes, a fresh perspective coupled with an ability to think critically and independently......helps.

Peruse this boxscore and perhaps you'll find what I'm talking about.

Royalman! Taking the city (and soon the world) by storm!

2010-04-11T15:08:00.002-05:00

Become a part of the phenomenon of Royalman, who is taking Kauffman Stadium by storm. He has appeared on the scoreboard numerous times, has been interviewed by Joel Goldberg, and has been featured on local television stations. Help Royalman become a national phenomenon, resulting in the recognition of a once-proud franchise.

Facebook page:

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Royalman/110335335665320?ref=ts

2010 Royals Prospect Preview

2010-04-07T23:25:00.004-05:00

Just for your information, I have written fairly extensive prospect previews on local baseball analyst Greg Schaum's website, Royals Prospects, which has a fairly self-explanatory title. I provided short video clips and pictures for this site last month and I look forward to contributing with daily Minor League game (and prospect) reports, as well. Here is the link.

http://royalsprospects.com/?p=767

Here is a sample:

"RP Victor Marte: 3-5, 2.24 ERA in 64.1 IP for AA Northwest Arkansas. He’s a hard-throwing right-handed Dominican pitcher who is hardly young (at age 29) but a bit raw. He struggled with control and command in his brief stint in Kansas City last year. With his frame and stuff, he reminds me a bit of Robinson Tejeda, though I’m not sure their stamina is comparable."

Furthermore, follow Game previews on http://leftofthefoulpole.com/

Now, onward to tonight's game, our offense looked anemic at times but it was nice to see the power of Rick Ankiel and Alberto Callaspo manifest in dramatic fashion, enabling the Royals to even the series with Detroit and perhaps reach .500 for the last time this season (though I'm hoping against reason that they finish significantly higher than my projected total of 67 wins this year). An encouraging, efficient outing by Luke Hochevar, as well, though I wonder if he should have finished the eighth inning, as his pitch count was still below 90. I'm normally an advocate of the 4+ out save, but I'd have to think Soria's stamina at least remains tolerable enough when facing Miguel Cabrera, who tied the game with that foul-pole drilling home run in right field.

Now, as for an analysis for Opening Day, what else can be criticized that hasn't already been? As Robert Ford mentioned on the air following the game and multiple times last year, third base coaches typically should not be noticed. Dave Owen almost got our runner thrown out again in the 11th inning on Game 2. Well, he certainly got Jason Kendall tossed out on game one. Has anyone seen Royals Review poster AxMxDx's windmill post on Royals Review? I'm hoping our third base coach struggles, misplays on routine popups on the infield, and bunting in the first inning aren't recurring trends this year, as well. I'm also hoping our bullpen at least shows some semblance of competence. Unfortunately, we have three guys who are probably fringe relievers and sixth or seventh relievers on good teams on our current roster in Dusty Hughes, Kyle Farnsworth, John Parrish (even as a "LOOGY"), Dusty Hughes, and Luis Mendoza. I hope I don't long for the days of Tony Cogan and Matt Whisenant come April 20, but I'm afraid it's very probable.

Stay tuned for more updates to come and...seriously....I recommend reading that Minor League post. I devoted quite a spell of effort in it and, frankly, I liked my Victor Marte-Robinson Tejeda "comp."

The 2010 Westport Stingers

2010-04-05T03:56:00.002-05:00

I created my Fantasy League, Royals Nation Fantasy Baseball, in 2007, to shed light on some active posters on my now essentially defunct (though still oddly viewable) message board/blog Royals Nation. Although my team has tanked for three consecutive years (that's embellishing a bit, admittedly, but I've yet to finish .500), it's been a sight to see how the league has morphed over the few years. It began - and remains - as a head-to-head fantasy league where 15-17 statistics or categories are judged. I hand out several trophies for deserving winners on months and weeks end.

Either way, here is my Fantasy Team, the Westport Stingers, for 2010. (Keep in mind that the starting lineup is set for Monday, so it might not mirror a "typical" starting nine). It might give you some perspective to note that this is a 20-team deep mixed league with 25-man rosters (and up to 4 DL spots).

C - Jeff Clement
1B - Nick Johnson
2B - Kelly Johnson
3B - Kevin Youkilis
SS - Troy Tulowitzki
OF - Justin Upton
OF - Matt Kemp
OF - Jay Bruce
UT - Melky Cabrera
Ben - Jason Bartlett
Ben - Brendan Ryan
Ben - Justin Smoak (Inactive)
Ben - Nate Schierholtz
Ben - Nick Punto
Ben - Andruw Jones
Ben - Willie Ballgame Bloomquist
DL - Freddy Sanchez

P - Mike Gonzalez
SP - Adam Wainwright
SP - Tim Lincecum
SP - Shaun Marcum
SP - Nick Blackburn
SP - Anibal Sanchez
RP - Mariano Rivera
RP - Billy Wagner
Ben - Oliver Perez
DL - Erik Bedard
DL - Brad Bergesen
DL - Jeff Francis

I think I finally have some nice balance of speed and power in my starting lineup and I have some nice versatility on the bench. With Bedard on the Disabled List until likely June, I need a third starter to really step up and deliver Fantasy-wise. I have a couple rehabilitation projects that I'm borderline relying on in Anibal Sanchez and Shaun Marcum. I like that I have three closers, one occupying the general pitchers' role.

Anyway, 5-7 fellow RN Fantasyites will probably view this entry sometime within the next few days, so biases or trash talk might follow!

2010 Royals Dempsey Projections

2010-04-05T03:53:00.001-05:00

Continuing the my fine recent tradition of predicting things (I'm considering starting a 'Predict the 2012 Miss America Pageant' thread), I've decided to present my basic statistical "projection/predictions" for the 2010 Royals. This has become recent tradition for myself, as well (since 2007, to be specific). I'm going to keep my stats raw, since I don't have a calculator. I might refine these *slightly* at a later time but here goes. (I'll include everyone with at least 100 at-bats).

I'll begin with the position players!

C - Jason Kendall: 496 AB, .244/.315/.319, 2 HR, 31 RBI, 6 SB, 3 CS, -3 (Runs
saved/cost on defense - you don't have to include this)
C - Brayan Pena: 212 AB, .273/.339/.405, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB, 1 CS, -1
1B - Billy Butler: 567 AB, .285/.342/.466, 21 HR, 79 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS, -5
2B - Alberto Callaspo: 478 AB, .286/.354/.412, 5 HR, 53 RBI, 2 SB, 1 CS, -3
2B - Chris Getz: 423 AB, .270/.325/.346, 1 HR, 31 RBI, 27 SB, 7 CS, +2
2B - Willie Bloomquist: 396 AB, .263/.325/.329, 0 HR, 22 RBI, 18 SB, 7 CS, -6
SS - Yuniesky Betancourt: 415 AB, .270/.292/.366, 4 HR, 41 RBI, 10 SB, 7 CS,
-12
SS - Mike Aviles: 294 AB, .262/.315/.407, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 6 SB, 3 CS, -1
3B - Alex Gordon: 438 AB, .256/.344/.435, 12 HR, 54 RBI, 5 SB, 2 CS, +4
3B - Josh Fields: 122 AB, .240/.282/.397, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS, 0
LF - Scott Podsednik: 482 AB, .256/.315/.358, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 36 SB, 14 CS, -2
CF - Rick Ankiel: 426 AB, .256/.298/.405, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 1 SB, 0 CS, -4
CF - Mitch Maier: 284 AB, .277/.325/.387, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 9 SB, 3 CS, +2
RF - David DeJesus: 562 AB, .278/.359/.410, 9 HR, 52 RBI, 7 SB, 6 CS, +5
DH - Jose Guillen: 379 AB, .266/.302/.394, 11 HR, 43 RBI, 0 SB, 1 CS, -1
DH - Kila Ka'aihue: 156 AB, .254/.342/.425, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS, 0

As far as players with fewer than 100 ABs, I think players like Betemit,
Thorman, Pina, Clark, and Lough (and others I'm probably omitting) can possibly
fall on that list.

I think a consistent inability to stay healthy will rear its ugly head again
this year as Guillen, Gordon, Callaspo, and Ankiel, four "integral" parts of our
offense, will miss time. DeJesus will endure his usual day-to-day injuries and
ample playing time will be given to grizzled veterans. Although the team will
be improved defensively, they will still fall below average in that regard and
well below average in terms of offense. If you "pool" all players with fewer
than 100 AB's together, I think this offense would probably score 680-700 runs.
I like that there appears to be more "versatility" than last year. But we're
likely going to see plenty of games where we score 0-2 runs.

The bad news is that I'm predicting many veterans this organization is stuck
with contractually - to basically fall well below an "optimal" performance level
this season. The organization would benefit, in my opinion, from playing guys
like Ka'aihue, Maier, Aviles, and Pena as often as possible.

I hope I'm wrong on these performances because I believe my outlook is pretty
grim. If this organization shows a full-fledged commitment to youth, then I'll
gladly eat crow but until then I see more of the same.

For pitchers, I'll predict 8 appearances or more (to include Crow)

SP Zack Greinke - 33 GS/G, 15-8, 2.77 ERA, 223 IP, 52 BB, 197 K (All Star)
SP Gil Meche - 23 GS/G, 6-9, 4.88 ERA, 143 IP, 59 BB, 110 K
SP Brian Bannister - 28 GS/G, 7-12, 5.03 ERA, 179 IP, 58 BB, 112 K
SP Luke Hochevar - 26 GS, 31 G, 6-11, 5.17 ERA, 165 IP, 72 BB, 113 K
SP Kyle Davies - 19 GS, 33 G, 6-9, 4.80 ERA, 136 IP, 66 BB, 95 K
SP Aaron Crow - 8 GS/G, 2-4, 5.63 ERA, 35 IP, 14 BB, 23 K (late August callup)
RP Robinson Tejeda - 11 GS, 54 G, 3-5, 4.53 ERA, 97 IP, 65 BB, 92 K
RP Brad Thompson - 5 GS, 21 G, 2-4, 5.60 ERA, 33 IP, 13 BB, 18 K
RP Josh Rupe - 16 G, 0-2, 6.20 ERA, 25 IP, 11 BB, 14 K
RP Blake Wood - 9 G, 1-2, 6.86 ERA, 26 IP, 14 BB, 12 K
RP Phil Humber - 28 G, 1-1, 5.77 ERA, 33 IP, 14 BB, 25 K
RP Anthony Lerew - 4 GS, 24 G, 2-4, 5.76 ERA, 49 IP, 20 BB, 29 K
RP Carlos Rosa - 32 G, 2-2, 4.39 ERA, 39 IP, 18 BB, 29 K
RP Dusty Hughes - 32 G, 1-3, 4.92 ERA, 35 IP, 14 BB, 24 K
RP Kyle Farnsworth - 36 G, 1-3, 5.10 ERA, 44 IP, 25 BB, 38 K
RP Juan Cruz - 53 G, 3-6, 3.85 ERA, 59 IP, 24 BB, 49 K
CP Joakim Soria - 51 G, 5-4, 3.19 ERA, 62 IP, 18 BB, 75 K

This doesn't include a pool of pitchers with minimal plate appearances. (I
also think it's possible a player on waivers or a Free Agent could be
selected). I'll predict 15-Day DL stints for Meche, Bannister, Farnsworth,
Wood, Soria, and possibly Juan Cruz. I think the starting rotation is one of
the strong suits but I think the team ERA this year will be around 4.8 or 4.9.

Feel free to chime in and, if you have time, predict your own!

My 2010 MLB Predictions

2010-04-05T03:49:00.002-05:00

On Opening Day eve, below are some rather detailed predictions for the 2010 season in Major League Baseball. In essence, five teams who made the postseason last year remain. As a Royals fan, I will predictably be rooting for the small markets but I do think Philadelphia and New York are probably the best teams in their respective leagues. If anyone has any questions or is appalled by the idea of selecting Arizona to win the NL Wild Card, then leave a comment.

NL West:
1. Colorado: 89-73
2. Arizona (WC): 88-74
3. Los Angeles: 83-79
4. San Francisco: 79-83
5. San Diego: 70-92

NL Central:
1. St. Louis: 92-70
2. Chicago: 84-78
3. Cincinnati: 82-80
4. Milwaukee: 77-85
5. Pittsburgh: 69-93
6. Houston: 64-98

NL East:
1. Philadelphia: 91-71
2. Atlanta: 87-75
3. New York: 83-79
4. Florida: 76-86
5. Washington: 68-94

AL West:
1. Texas: 91-71
2. Seattle: 83-79
3. Los Angeles: 82-80
4. Oakland: 75-87

AL Central:
1. Detroit: 84-78
2. Minnesota: 82-80
3. Chicago: 79-83
4. Cleveland: 70-92
5. Kansas City: 67-95

AL East:
1. New York: 100-62
2. Boston (WC): 91-71
3. Tampa Bay: 86-76
4. Baltimore: 74-88
5. Toronto: 65-97

(I have no idea if these totals add up or not…hopefully, it comes pretty close)

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (21-8, 2.63)
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (20-7, 2.94)
AL ROY: Justin Smoak (502 AB, .285/.377/.536, 25 HR, 87 RBI, 1 SB, 0 CS)
NL ROY: Alcides Escobar (577 AB, .292/.334/.435, 10 HR, 57 RBI, 46 SB, 15 CS)
AL MVP: Mark Teixeira (615 AB, .297/.392/.588, 43 HR, 115 RBI, 2 SB, 2 CS)
NL MVP: Albert Pujols (602 AB, .338/.442/.613, 40 HR, 119 RBI, 5 SB, 3 CS)
AL Manager: Ron Washington (91-71)
NL Manager: A.J. Hinch (88-74)
AL Fireman: Mariano Rivera (5-4, 2.18 ERA, 42 SV)
NL Fireman: Francisco Rodriguez (6-3, 2.42 ERA, 45 SV)

Postseason:

ALDS: New York over Detroit in 4
ALDS: Texas over Boston in 5
ALCS: New York over Texas in 6

NLDS: Arizona over St. Louis in 5
NLDS: Colorado over Philadelphia in 4
NLDS: Colorado over Arizona in 5

Other Awards:

AL Comeback Player: Shaun Marcum, TOR (11-10, 3.94 ERA, 176 IP)
NL Comeback Player: Tim Hudson, ATL (15-9, 3.82 ERA, 185 IP)

Spam Posts

2010-03-16T19:09:00.001-05:00

OK, the numerous spam messages that have appeared on my site over the last month are prompting me to approve all comments before they are posted. Normally, I wouldn't do this but I'm tired of spammers messing up my site.

Thanks,

Jack

My Surprise, AZ Visit

2010-03-16T19:04:00.001-05:00

My pictures are now available at http://www.royalsprospects.shutterfly.com/ I'm Jack, in case you don't know, so

http://royalsprospects.shutterfly.com/pictures/1799
http://royalsprospects.shutterfly.com/pictures/1678
http://royalsprospects.shutterfly.com/pictures/2701

So it's a little haphazard, but those are all my pictures. Some 2009 photos were accidentally included in a new set...sorry about that.

While I stayed in Youngtown (immediately outside Surprise) last week, I mostly visited the Minor League camps but attended four Major League games during the day. Here are some random, on-the-whim thoughts from the morning practices and afternoon intersquad games.

- Aaron Crow looks good. He dips his top side of his body when he pitches which is something I have read about. It could be an issue down the road.
- I encountered a Minor League pitching coach (not sure who) working with Mike Montgomery on a regular curveball. Evidently, they want him to veer away from a palm curve he tossed in high school and want him to adapt to their style.
- I spoke briefly with pitching prospect Ryan Morgan, with whom I pitched in college. (He obviously ascended to astronomically higher rankings than yours truly), although I did not see him pitch.
- Eric Hosmer was hitting mostly grounders in the two B.P. sessions I saw. On the contrary, Hilton Richardson was really ranking. Not sure if B.P. is much of an indicator but I hope to see more line-drives and XBH from Hosmer's bat in '10.
- Saw Rowdy Hardy pitch for the first time ever. He struggled quite a bit with command, which is odd for him. He has a 3/4 and submarine delivery.
- Blake Johnson's curveball looked outstanding (take that for what it's worth).
- Salvador Perez and Jose Bonilla really did a good job taking charge of the infield diamond communication-wise. Wil Myers looked a bit lost and out of place behind the dish. He took quite a few instructions from the dugout coaches....a sign of his inexperience.
- A ton of bunting and stealing took place. Not sure if this is uncommon; but I would see several bunt and steal attempts every half inning.
- I'm really excited about Clint Robinson's prospects in NWA this year. He was raking the ball in intersquads; saw him hit a couple XBH and a HR.
- Chris McConnell = quite slick defensively. Johnny Giavotella didn't look too bad, either, and showed range (to my naked non-scouting eye, so again take it for what it's worth).
- It was interesting to see particular "cliques." Many of the Latin players watching the games stood in one group...the American-born players would chatter in another.
- Got autographs from Mike Moustakas and Everett Teaford.
- Select pitchers who did not pitch in intersquads that day kept score, tracking first-pitch strikes and pitch counts (to my knowledge)....and possibly more.
- Speed at the top! The tops of lineups were loaded with speedy-types....Patrick "Roundhouse Kick" Norris, Adrian "The Jet" Ortiz, Derrick "D-Rob" Robinson, and more (lame nicknames...)
- Did not see Dan Duffy or Jeff Bianchi for perhaps obvious reasons. I also did not see Sean McCauley (injured). I did not see several others.
- A center fielder (I believe it was Norris) dropped a routine fly-ball. Granted, it was sunny, but the ball popped in and out of his glove.
- Saw Chris "Disco" Hayes pitch in the bullpen for the first time.

Anyway, I might think of more....

2010 In A Nutshell

2010-02-19T00:31:00.002-06:00

Howdy, folks. It's great to be back. Truth be told, while interning for the 610 Sports Postgame Show last year, much of my Royals blogging time was spent updating the 610 Royals website Left of the Foul Pole with Gameday Previews, Diamond in the Rough (Minor League) reports, and more. I greatly enjoyed my time interning last year. I have subsequently accepted the offer to intern for the program/station again this year. Do call in during the season at (913) 576-7610. For away games, that person screening your calls could be me. I'm really eager to begin this year as I consider this an exciting opportunity. I hope to provide updates at TRT rather consistently, but inevitably most of my work will take place for the program. I'll keep you informed as to the specifics of these endeavors.

If I were in charge of this club, I would devise this Opening Day roster, complete with a batting order and other necessary roster moves not including outside acquisitions. This assumes that Spring Training performances mean zilch to nil (I essentially advocate this position) and no injuries occur between today and Opening Day. Realistically, Mike Aviles probably won't return to the parent club until May at the earliest.

Here it is.

vs. RHP:

1. David DeJesus, L (LF) (Our likely second wOBA guy this year. Probably a not-too-distant second from Butler in this regard.)
2. Alberto Callaspo, S (2B) (I always adhere to the policy of simply batting your best hitters at the top of the lineup. Callaspo fits in the top three.)
3. Billy Butler, R (1B) (Rather self-explanatory).
4. Rick Ankiel, L (RF) (Perhaps the most raw power on the club. I expect a Mike Jacobs-like season from him this year....I'm thinking .250/.310/.440).
5. Brayan Pena, S (DH) (Find a way to get his bat in the lineup.)
6. Alex Gordon, L (3B)
7. Mitch Maier, L (CF) (Bite the bullet with two consecutive lefties.)
8. Jason Kendall, R (C) (Defense a plus, bat a major minus, he's a necessity, though, with B. Pena in the DH slot.)
9. Chris Getz, L (SS) (The Insanity Wolf is likely an upgrade over Yu-Bet. So is Getz, of course).

Bench:

Wilson Betemit (IF)
Willie Ballgame (IF)
Josh Fields (CIF, COF)
Scott Podsednik (COF)

vs. LHP:

1. David DeJesus, L (LF)
2. Alberto Callaspo, S (2B)
3. Brayan Pena, S (DH)
4. Billy Butler, R (1B)
5. Alex Gordon, L (3B)
6. Josh Fields, R (RF) (
7. Mitch Maier, L (CF)
8. Jason Kendall, R (C)
9. Chris Getz, L (SS) (I know...bite the bullet until Mike Aviles is ready. Or you could place the Insanity Wolf in this spot)

Bench:

Wilson Betemit (IF)
Willie Ballgame (IF)
Rick Ankiel (OF)
Scott Podsednik (COF)

Starting Rotation:

1. Zack Greinke, R
2. Gil Meche, R
3. Brian Bannister, R
4. Luke Hochevar, R
5. Kyle Davies, R

Bullpen:

LR. Phil Humber, R
LR. Robinson Tejeda, R (he assumes the spot of the first starter who fails in his role. As far as I'm concerned, Davies is on a short leash. Hochevar is on a slightly longer leash.)
MR. Brad Thompson, R
MR. Kyle Farnsworth, R (sigh)
LHS(?). Edgar Osuna, L (For someone who has more time and motivation than myself...is he a truly a lefty-specialist candidate [assuming Hillman or a manager would use him in that role?])
SU. Juan Cruz, R ('09 was a fluke)
RA. Joakim Soria, R (RA standing for relief ace...abandon the "closers" spot altogether)

Ignore who has options remaining and release Jose Guillen. Send Yuniesky Betancourt to AAA and/or grant him his outright release. DFA Roman Colon.

Am I missing anyone?

On a side note, I would again like to invite all old Royals Nation posters back to this website. I handed the RN baton over to Ray Wachter from Royals on Radio, Etc. last year and to be frank I think that site has gone defunct. I really appreciated the active contributors on there as I made a lot of friends on that site. If you're interested in participating - somehow, someway - for this blog, let me know.

JD's Prospect Quips

2009-10-12T00:49:00.002-05:00

Below are quips for prospects 20-27 on Greg Schaum's Top 30 Prospects of 2010 list, which can be found at Left of the Foul Pole. 28-30 and 1-19 coming soon.

20. Keaton Hayenga

Hayenga has an injury history, unfortunately, as he suffered a shoulder injury while in high school. He did not begin pitching for a club affiliate until 2009. The Royals, at the time, thought they had landed a steal in the 31st round. His strikeout rate was rather low, though. He only fanned 34 batters in 66 1/3 innings this year, but he only allowed 16 walks, so at least the strikeout-to-walk ratio is respectable. At 6'4" and 190 pounds, he is lanky and might need to fill out a bit more as he advances up the organizational ladder. As for miscellaneous fun notes, he and #25 prospect for 2010 Hilton Richardson host a free baseball clinic in Seattle for local area youth.

21. Crawford Simmons

Simmons represented Team Georgia in 2008 as a junior at Statesboro High School. He earned several awards and accomplishments while in high school, and he helped lead his squad to the second round of the state tournament in '08, as well. Simmons posted a 0.70 ERA with 108 strikeouts in 69 1/3 innings in his junior season in high school. He did not pitch for a Minor League affiliate this year. His father works as an assistant coach for Georgia Southern University so that could provide him with a little extra motivation as he works his way up the Minor League ladder.

22. Jose Bonilla

Bonilla was named the Surprise Royals Player of the Year in 2008 after hitting .357 with five homers and three triples in 34 games for the Arizona League affiliate. Bonilla has a fairly good throwing arm and shows the ability to hit the baseball to all parts of the diamond. He turned 21 in August and he is probably a few years away from being able to contribute substantially at the big-legaue level. He needs to work at cutting down his strikeouts, as he fanned in nearly 1/4 of his at-bats in 2009.

23. Yowill Espinal

Espinal was the #29 Royals prospect of 2009, according to Baseball America. The middle infielder signed in 2007 for $250,000 and he is part of the Royals' renewed efforts to find talent, albeit perhaps expensively, in the Caribbean and in Latin America. Espinal is athletic and is physically superior to fellow middle-man Geulin Beltre, who was another major Latin nondrafted free agent acquisition at roughly the same time. Espinal possesses average range but has a plus arm at shortstop. He batted .246/.327/.407 with seven home runs, 23 RBI, and 20 stolen bases (but 14 caught steals) in 236 at-bats this year for the Rookie ball Burlington Royals.

24. Blake Wood

Wood's career injuries include, but are not limited to, a herniated disc which required him to have back surgery. Wood also suffered from shin splints a couple years ago and had injuries this year which caused him to miss roughly 1 1/2 months over the summer. His strikeout totals declined pretty substantially this year. He lost 25 pounds in the offseason but still has a fastball that routinely sits between 92 and 94. He also throws a power curveball and a plus changeup. Wood had been known as a bit of a "Jekyll-and-Hyde" starter throughout 2007 and 2008, posting many great starts and many bad starts. However, he had begun to pitch much better in June before he was shelved with the injury. Wood endured a disappointing season, overall, though, in 2009, as he went 2-8 with a 5.83 ERA in 78 2/3 innings pitched and 17 games with AA Northwest Arkansas.

25. Hilton Richardson

Richardson is another former multisport player, which the Royals organization loves. He played basketball in high school and had signed to play baseball at the University of Utah before getting drafted by the Royals in the seventh round of the 2007 amateur draft. He recently teamed with his good friend Kayenga to offer a free baseball clinic for Seattle area youth. Richardson raked in 166 at-bats in Rookie-league Idaho Falls, hitting .313/.392/.428, but he struggled in his extremely brief tenure with Low-A Burlington. He profiles as a doubles and triples hitter right now, but as he fills out with age (he will turn 21 in January) the home run power should hopefully arrive. That said, he is a center fielder, so it's not exactly as if hitting for home run power is an absolute must.

26. Patrick Keating

Keating is a number of recent pitching draft picks who have already worked their way into full season leagues as relief pitchers. Cole White and Louis Coleman are two others who come to mind instantly. Given that many of these pitchers have dominated in these levels and many have played in advanced college programs, they might not be years away. Perhaps if these pitchers pan out Royals fans won't have to witness the Kyle Farnsworths and Juan Cruzes manning critical roles in the 'pen too much longer.

27. Cheslor Cuthbert

Cuthbert's $1.2 million bonus broke a record for the signing of a Nicaraguan player. The Pittsburgh Pirates were rumored to be in on him for several weeks as he practiced in an academy before several scouts. Cuthbert displays above-average bat speed and power. According to La Prensa, a Nicaraguan publication, he hits the ball "with the strength of a man." It will be interesting tracking how Cuthbert matures as he moves up in the low minors.

Our Defense

2009-06-19T16:30:00.005-05:00

OK, I understand it's been awhile, but I'm going to try to Bob Dole out more blog posts on a regular basis. For those who don't know, I've been doing quite a spell of work over at the 610 Sports' Royals website Left of the Foul Pole. Available at that website are blog posts devoted to the 2009 amateur draft selections, (almost) daily gameday previews, Diamond in the Rough reports, and more. Also, if you are a devoted fan and Royals blogger - and if you are reading this sentence, you are likely one of the two - then I would suggest you call into the Postgame Show with Robert Ford and Greg Schaum following the contest. The number is (913) 576-7610. As B-Dub and others might tell you, just make sure you keep your radio turned down and make sure you keep it clean. Two simple rules in a pathway to venting yourself over a loss, discussing Zack Greinke's dominance, Trey Hillman's chinbeard, or any other Royals-related event that is on your mind. And random journeyman ex-Royal references are certainly welcome and encouraged.

Here are some general thoughts as we approach the 1/2 mark of the 2009 season.

- The defense needs to improve drastically, and in my opinion, it needs to be a #1 priority this offseason. If that means jettisoning Billy Butler, Mike Jacobs, Alberto Callaspo, and others, so be it. Especially considering this team still is not near contention (we're 5 1/2 games back, sure, but we're seven games below .500 well before the break), our veteran spare parts need to be shopped. As begrudging as it sounds, we need to shop Gil Meche, as well. He is a #2-quality starter who, in my opinion, could net us everyday players or prospects at a couple positions. Players like Crisp and Jacobs would net less, and we would likely have to pick up a significant portion of Jose Guillen's remaining salary.

- Trey Hillman needs to go. Enough with the bullpen mismanagement, the almost routine games with comedies of errors, and lack of fundamentals. He has improved with regard to playing time distribution and stolen base success rate, but in my opinion, he is still far from where we want to be as the captain.

- Dayton Moore needs to be on the hot seat. Our offensive run output has actually diminished under his tenure while he has had far greater fiscal resources and lack of ownership intervention during his tenure.

Since defense is a number one priority, though, here is a rant that I originally posted on Royals Corner. The final question applies for The Royal Treatment as well.

Unfortunately, even if Kila moves in (hopefully, that will happen), the right side of our infield will still be subpar. Now, of course, I think Kila and Callaspo will negate their defense enough to be at least everyday players next season. However, when pitchers like Hochevar are starting (assuming he starts next year), then it could hinder us that much more.

I realize this is subjective, but here is I believe how we would rank defensively from the players signed in our organization next year, including the arb.-eligibles (qualitatively):

Catcher - Buck (average), Olivo (slightly above average), B. Pena (atrocious), House (atrocious)
First Base - Butler (below average), Ka'ahiue (below average), Shealy (above average), Jacobs (atrocious)
Second Base - Callaspo (below average), Hulett (average), Bloomquist (above average)
Shortstop - Pena (well above average), Aviles (above average), Bloomquist (below average), Hulett (below average), Hernandez (above average)
Third Base - Gordon (above average), Teahen (slightly below average), Bloomquist (well below average)
Left Field - DeJesus (above average), Teahen (well below average), Bloomquist (below average)
Center Field - Crisp (above average), Maier (above average)
Right Field - Guillen (atrocious), Teahen (below average), Bloomquist (well below average)

We need upgrades at catcher, first base, second base, shortstop if Aviles cannot hit at least .270/.310/.400, and right field(!!!!!) That's four positions. If Aviles can even come close to replicating '08, we're fine at shortstop, and we might have to bite the bullet again with Callaspo and first base. However, we clearly need a much, much, much, much better right fielder and we also need to drastically reduce the playing time of players like Willie Bloomquist and Mark Teahen in the field.

Does someone want to work on finding which Free Agent-eligible (2009-10) players could provide us plus defense at a resonable cost?

Poll Results, Week Six: Ryan Shealy NOW!

2009-05-15T20:09:00.006-05:00

Judging by the poll results from last week, it would appear that the Royals fanbase would like to see Ryan Shealy recalled from AAA Omaha. Here is how the results break down:

Which position player would you most like to see recalled from Omaha? (List compiled on 5/2)

Ryan Shealy: 10 votes (47%)
Tug Hulett: 3 (14%)
Kila Ka'aihue: 3 (14%)
Travis Metcalf: 1 (4%)
Chris Lubanski: 1 (4%)
Other: 3 (14%)

Yes, it's true. Through 25 games and 87 at-bats in AAA Omaha, he has now connected for a .345/.454/.425 clip. He is homerless, though, and we all know that if he is to provide some value as a pinch-hitter and part-time player (a compliment to the left-handed hitting DH/1B Mike Jacobs), he is going to need to hit for power. In his Minor League career, Shealy has a .302/.406/.615 line against lefties, with 23 home runs in 291 at-bats. He is, on the contrary, .296/.369/.510 against right-handers. In parts of his last four seasons, he has contributed for a net gain of three runs at first base.

Although his BABIP is insanely high this year (.484), his FB% does not correlate at all with his mere seven extra base hits (and zero home runs). It is 48.1%, so the HR output is flukishly low.

I'm not going to sugercoat it. Shealy needs to be on the 25-man roster above Luis Hernandez, who provides as nothing more than an excellent late-inning defensive replacement. Hernandez contributes negatively as an offensive player, and will likely do nothing to earn anything more than Sunday starts, even with a slumping Mike Aviles. Get Shealy on this roster, start him at first base against lefties (against whom Jacobs struggles immensely), and let him pinch hit late in games, in crucial situations or no.

Shealy has not played since Friday, May 8th, though. He has not yet been placed on the 7-Day Disabled List, though, so what's the deal? The Royals organization is notorious for keeping Minor League information secretive and withheld. Regardless, I think Shealy would be a formidable option at my stated positions on the big-league roster.

Question: Which players would fit in the 'other' category who one could argue would be worthy of a promotion? Tommy Murphy? Brayan Pena (again, and even more so assuming a DFA/release/trade of one of our existing two catchers)? Brian (Pitcher Fill-In) Buchanan? I'd love to know.

The Nightmare in Springfield

2009-05-06T19:08:00.003-05:00

Draft prospects review from the LSU-Arkansas games I attended last weekend coming in a few days. In the meantime, enjoy my writeup on the two games I witnessed in Springfield on Wednesday afternoon.

OK, so I attended both Northwest Arkansas Naturals-Springfield Cardinals games this afternoon at Hammond Field in Springfield. As usual in posts like these, I'll try to avoid making this long-winded. Here are some general thoughts from both games. As for the title ("nightmare"), the second game epitomized the Game From Hell. Other than an early offensive explosion, virtually everything went wrong for the Nats today.

I sat in proximity - actually, four seats away from - an obvious die-hard Cardinal fan who was cheering on his team to a ridiculous, obnoxious degree each time they scored or something positive happened on his side. He was obviously baiting me, as I was the only Naturals (Royals) fan in the packed house. I, for one, hate these fan exchanges during the game, because a) what happens on the field is entirely out of control, b) it encourages blind homerism, c) it's flat-out obnoxious, and d) it epitomizes what it means to be a poor baseball fan. Needless to say, this clown was a poor baseball fan. Cheering on the ejections of Suomi & Poldberg (which I will highlight later), screaming each time his team scored, and more. He pulled so much bushleague crap....crap that I've actually never witnessed before at a baseball game, even an away game. I overheard him making notes like "This guy is throwing 89...he sucks" and openly questioning whether you can steal a base on a foul ball.

It was strange, because this man looked like a kid. However, he talked and carried himself like he was middle-aged. He was with a much older woman, who could have been his girlfriend. I overheard him asking her if she was married, at the time. In conclusion, I really wonder if this fan was mentally stable.

Anyway, this man is a clown...and he gives Turdburds fans (you read that correctly) an even further bad name....as if their reputation as pompous could have ever even been overcome. I ignored him intentionally the entire time, but when I did speak, I was polite. I'm paraphrasing in the quotes, here, but he told me "fans at Kauffman Stadium would be treating me this way, so don't take it personnally." He epitomizes pitiful blind homerism in fans. Enough said.

My seats were wonderful. Front row seats, directly behind the net, and approximately 20 feet from the dugout. I snapped about 20 photos with my camera, and another 50 or so with my cell phone. I'll share them later.

As for the game itself (which was largely overshadowed by this clown), catcher John Suomi was ejected in the first game. Of course, I couldn't hear the words exchanged between him and the umpire (and I arrived at the beginning of the second inning), but I'm guessing the exchanges were mostly silent, lacking outward emotional expression. Suomi was nonchalantly tossed, much to his shock and dismay. The manager, Brian Poldberg, then rushed out the dugout and threw a tirade before the umpire, and he was tossed. From my perspective, Suomi getting ejected looked completely like bushleague crap. There might have been more to the story, but if anyone has questions, ask.

It took the attendants at the ice-cream shop about 5 minutes per person to make their ice-cream. Their service was appalling. I snapped a couple photos, so I can post them here and possibly on Cardinals message boards to remind them never to conduct business with these slugs. This sounds like a jerk's move on my part, but I cut through the line to pay for my ice cream (I had to pay separately) before it melted, sitting there in the sunlight. At least I think I cut...I'm not sure. Regardless, their business was piss-poor. Talk about horrifically disorganized and a cluster-what. I recommended everyone in line leave before conducting business with them.

Anyway, back to the game....John Bale entered his rehab assignment and was pulled after recording two outs and surrendering one line drive single in roughly 7 or so pitches. He was hitting 85-87 with his fastball on the radar gun, so I knew something was either wrong, initially, or he was extremely rusty. Looks like it was the former. The trainers and a couple other members of the dugout emerged and instantly yanked him in the 6th. He wasn't signaling toward anything, so I'm not sure what the aggravation might have been.

First game starter Blake Wood was dominant, using four pitches and locating them effectively. His fastball topped out around 93, and was 91-92 most of the game. He surrendered two solo home runs - both no-doubters - in the final inning, but it was good work on his part, overall. He was visibly frustrated after that final inning, though.

Second game starter Matt Kniginyzky, as the box score displays, endured a Hellish outing, and could not make it to four outs in the contest. He was not locating at all effectively, and they were tattooing the pitches that he did throw in the strike zone. I thought the game was safe after the first 1 1/2 inning, but he proved otherwise.

Gilbert De La Vara, who usually has to rely on spotting his pitches, endured a microscopic strike zone this afternoon. He didn't walk anyone, but they were connecting quite well with his pitches, as they were with Dan Cevette and Kyle Crist, when they weren't walking batters.

I thought bringing in reliever Chris Hayes was a possibility, given that he hadn't pitched in several days. Then again, ok...he pitched 6 (dominant) innings not too long ago. (No Chris Nicoll either, though).Springfield/Cardinals fans cheering on the ejections and the meaningless sacrifice bunts early in the ballgame, as expected. Best fans in baseball!!!!!!!!11111!!11one

Despite hitting a home run, Lisson looks lost at the plate. Athletic build and good defense today, but too many swings and misses. His home run was a no-doubter, though, so hopefully it's a sign of things to come.The Cardinals' first game starter, Brandon Dickson, was absolutely untouchable today. He reminded me of Scot Shields of the Angels, except Dickson dominated in multiple innings. He was only hitting 87-89 on the radar gun, but the deception appeared to be there, and his explosive delivery made it appear yet faster.

The AA Cardinals are a loaded ballclub, offensively. Brett Wallace, last year's #1 amateur draft selection, agreed to a humungous signing bonus, as noted several times by several fans I was sitting with. Their #7 prospect, Daryl Jones, was also in the lineups, as well as the first round draft selection of '07, Pete Kozma. The middle of their lineup was huge, physically. Just huge.Several of the Cards' relief pitches showed odd deliveries. Williams' stretch resembled that of a windup. During the stretch, he only had one foot on the rubber, and his body was facing home plate instead of first base. Very deceptive for runners on first. Another reliever, Degerman, came directly overhand on his pitches after dipping. It looked like Tim Lincecum, except it was a directly (180-degrees) overhand pitch. Very bizarre and deceptive.

If anyone has any questions, feel free to ask, as I observed quite a bit from the games, despite my distractions to my right.

2009 Royals Attendance

2009-05-04T12:46:00.002-05:00

2009 Royals attendance, total: 257,325 (24/30)

2009 Royals attendance, average per game: 19,794 (28/30)

These figures have actually decreased from where we were at this time last year through 13 home games.

We need a large crowd tonight against Greinke. I think tonight should be the ultimate test. A weeknight, in which the Royals have had continuous struggles in selling tickets. A divisional rival, and perhaps slightly more importantly, a hated divisional rival in the Chicago White Sox. Beautiful weather (forecast calls for 70 degrees and sunny by gametime). Beautiful new ballpark, for which Jackson County residents paid $250 million. Excellent new amenities and scenery. Vastly improved ballclub, that has improved by at least six games each of the past three seasons, and is now 14-11 and in sole possession of first place in a highly winnable division. One of the best pitchers in recent memory, and perhaps one of the best Royals pitchers *ever*, starting this evening.

If we still draw 10-13K or so, then it will a damning indictment as to just how much farther the Royals need to go in order to draw respectable crowds.

Thus far, I have read these excuses:

- Drawing large crowds is difficult because kids in Kansas City attend school. Therefore, families aren't motivated to attend. (Evidently, they don't in other outdoor/northern cities).

- The weather has been terrible in Kansas City. (Evidently, the weather in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Cincinnati has been continuous with 70+ degree weather and sunshine).

- Economic hard times. (But hasn't this affected all of MLB? Perhaps it's affected K.C. more than other markets....)

- The ballpark does not have restrooms and cannot sustain large crowds. (OK, fair enough).

Which excuse is it? Or is it a combination of all of these?

It seems every time I raise this topic, either directly in person or on the medium of a computer, the topic is always downplayed completely or I'm shouted down by a myriad of excuses. Folks....it's time the Royals start to substantially increase their attendance. I believe that attendance will go up if the Royals are in a divisional race until late in the season (or, obviously, after). However, it's fair to be disappointed this early. To get so defensive over this issue is even more of a damning indictment than the issue itself. This is evidently an overtly sensitive topic in the hearts, minds, and eyes of many Royals fans.

By the way, Todd's conclusion that a major reason for lack of attendance is that K.C. is a "small market" (essentially) is by far the best explanation, in my opinion. And when I discussed the greater area (I won't take the time and filter through for direct quotes), I was talking about the entire region....South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, north Arkansas, etc. etc. For the record, I wouldn't necessarily agree with the insinuation that K.C. isn't a baseball town, because it's largely unquantifiable. I think that conclusion is what many fans fear or dislike when people like myself vent my frustrations on the form of the Internet.

At the places where I work, many people know that I am a devoted Royals fan, and very few are interested in the Royals. Very few are interested in sports, at all. It's unfortunate....I have lived in the heart of K.C. for almost 23 years....but I can tell you that they still have a reputation as a sad-sack ballclub. Take it from Greg Schaum of 610 Sports....that is why attracting businesses to promote is so difficult. And yet they have improved substantially each of the past three years and appear to have improved yet again this year, at least in the standings. So perhaps the Royals' marketing and sales department deserves criticism, as well.

Perhaps it's the city's fault. The organization's fault. Perhaps we're just small. I just can't agree with these conclusions based on weather or "it's early" or something along those lines. But who knows the real reason? Perhaps it's a combination.

If you were to ask me to generate every possible reason for stagnant (or even moderately decreasing) attendance, here are the arguments I would formulate:

- We're a small market...therefore, we won't compete consistently with the Chicagos and New Yorks and Bostons. (70%)

- The organization has not promoted its product adequately or well. (30%)

People *should* have taken notice. The fact that the Royals aren't yet a .500 ballclub shouldn't be an excuse. Attendance moves like a ship...but it's never this slow. It wasn't in Milwaukee. And now they're drawing 3+ million, easily.

Trip to Northwest Arkansas, Part One

2009-05-03T01:40:00.001-05:00

I traveled to AA Northwest Arkansas this weekend, and caught Saturday's contest against the Arkansas Travelers (Angels' affiliate) on Saturday. I will travel out to the ballpark for Sunday's game (4:00 p.m.).

Several notes from Saturday's game:

- Daniel Cortes demonstrated some composure problems (which he had had in the past), shouting and hurling his glove against the bench following a frustrating performance. Cortes allowed three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings....not a bad performance but a particularly frustrating one given walks and defense. It was probably a 'B' or 'B-' performance, overall. His velocity appeared to taper off as the game progressed, and he did not consistently throw strikes, especially early.... It was a cold evening at the ballyard, for the record. Nonetheless, he'll need to improve to advance to AAA and eventually K.C. (hopefully, he'll get a cup of coffee in September).

- '09 Spring Training invitee and third baseman Corey Smith committed two errors, both of which were obvious routine plays. He missed a towering popup and then later let a ball go between his legs.

- The offense looked stale. They drew six walks but struck out ten times, stranded ten runners, and only scored two runs.

- Relievers Victor Marte - a hard-thrower who I thought resembled Octavio Dotel - and Kyle Crist looked good, pitching 1-2-3 eighth and ninth innings.

- The crowd was rather prolific and into the game despite the fact that there were northerly winds blowing, and it was in the mid 50's, overall.

- Tonight was Kila Ka'aihue bobblehead night. Unfortunately, though, I had to blow quite a bit of money on a Naturals hoodie sweatshirt. It was coooold, and I only brought short-sleeve shirts, thinking that Mays in Arkansas were a little more "Sling Blade"-like and a little less "Fargo"-like. (Two good 90's movies).

- Arvest Ballpark is beautiful, although it's seemingly in the middle of nowhere. I encourage everyone with spare time and money to visit the yard.

Pictures and extensive analysis of '09 draft prospects from the LSU-Arkansas game to come. For the record, I attended the final four innings of the LSU-Ark. contest, and plan on witnessing Sunday's game, in addition to the Nats-Travelers game. So stay tuned!!!

TRT Live From Springdale

2009-05-02T16:28:00.002-05:00

The Royal Treatment has traveled to Northwest Arkansas this weekend where "we" will take in two games between the AA Naturals and the state rivals Arkansas Travelers will engage in ballgames. We were originally going to assist in interviewing players, but because of rainshowers and other plans which were later cancelled, those plans were postponed. Regardless, I'm going to try to give a direct "scouting report" on each player that I encounter while watching baseball games on this trip.

B.A.-ranked #3 prospect Daniel Cortes will start this evening, and Anthony Lerew will start on Sunday.

More information coming tonight....so stay tuned.

Poll Results, Week Five: The Next Pitcher

2009-05-02T16:20:00.002-05:00

First and foremost, all apologies for not updating this blog - and, therefore, the poll, sooner. We all know that Brian Bannister was recalled from AAA Omaha shortly after the most recent TRT poll was assembled, so rather than delve into the results - for the record, the virtual consensus was that Luke Hochevar would be recalled before Bannister and would be the next non-current rotation candidate to make that start - let's delve into Brian Bannister's splits and metrics.

Thus far, it would appear he has been rather lucky, especially when you look at the strikeout-to-walk ratio. His

GS: 2
ERA: 0.69 (1 ER in 13 IP)
K/BB: 3/8
K/9 / K/BB: 2.08 / 5.54
BABIP: .129
LOB: 92.3%
FIP: 4.58

The FIP doesn't look terrible - it's probably about that of an average #3 starter, in fact - but he has been flukish with regard to left on base percentage and batting average on balls in play. That will almost certainly regress sooner rather than later. The strikeout-to-walk ratio, which Bannister has done a good job with in terms of keeping to a respectable ratio throughout the course of his Major and Minor League career - will almost certainly improve, as well.

Let's hope Banny can tame the Twins' suddenly hot bats - what with the return of catcher/All Star Joe Mauer - for this Saturday night. We'll need it, or else we'll likely have to avoid the sweep on Sunday, always an arduous task against a divisional rival who seemingly overcomes talent and uses that ridiculous ballpark - with all its nuances, inconveniences, odd bounces, and obnoxiously loud fans - to its opaque advantage.

The Next Baseball Era?

2009-04-22T16:33:00.001-05:00

What has characterized baseball throughout its 150-plus years has been the separation of eras. For example, much of the early 1900s was called the "Dead Ball Era" because of the abundance of "small ball" that took place, lack of power, overall, as well as the dimensions of ballparks, which were much larger than they are today. In contrast, around the turn of the 21st century, balls were flying out of ballparks at an unprecedented rate, as dimensions were much smaller, the ball was juiced, and players themselves were "juicing."

Now that baseballs are being stored in humidors prior to games and there is extensive testing taking place in attempts to eliminate performance-enhancing supplements from being used, what era - and, more specifically, what characteristics of that particular era - will baseball embark upon next?

Before we delve into what will characterize the unknown era in which we appear to be beginning, we must delve back into eras past, and what constituted those time periods.

19th Century Era - 1876 - 1900

This era consisted of rules which were drastically different than those used today. Bases on balls typically required more pitches, pitching distances were much smaller, home plate was shaped differently, and starting pitchers almost exclusively finished all of their games. Also, foul balls were not strikes. Power during this era was almost nonexistent, and the National League was rivaled only by the American Association and, briefly, the Union Association and Players League.

Dead Ball Era - 1901 - 1919

The American League joined the National League to form Major League Baseball. The Federal League also existed for a short period of time. Home runs and runs, overall, were scarce. Pitchers at often times doctored the baseball and much "small ball" - bunting and stealing bases - was used. Ballpark dimensions were enormous.

Lively Ball Era - 1920 - 1941

Pitchers were banned from using trick pitches or altering baseballs with foreign substances. During this period, home runs and batting average skyrocketed. Starting pitchers did not even complete 50 percent of their games, and baseball played under the lights - or at night - was introduced. Games began to be broadcast on radio and television.

Integration Era - 1942 - 1960

Many players from the Negro Leagues were recruited to Major League Baseball. Jackie Robinson, whose number 42 is now retired throughout baseball, became a monumentous and influential figure, as he broke the color barrier. This era was characterized slightly more by pitching than the Lively Ball Era, although home runs continued to rise as ballpark dimensions were shortened. Starting pitchers completed slightly over one-third of their games.

Expansion Era - 1961 - 1976

Offensive output declined significantly as the strike zone was decreased. Several new teams, including our Kansas City Royals, emerged during this era. Each league split into two divisions and pitching began to dominate as the pitching mound was lowered. The American League adopted the designated hitter, and starting pitchers completed roughly 25 percent of their games.

Free Agency Era - 1977 - 1993

Players began to have the right to become Free Agents after their sixth Major League season, and players began to move more often from team to team. Player salaries also skyrocketed. The era consisted of much parity, as many teams - especially during the 1980s - went to the postseason and won the World Series. Artificial turf fields became prevalent among a handful of teams, and starting pitchers completed much fewer of their games. Offensively, small ball was implemented more often.

Long Ball Era - 1994 - 2005

Baseball became bigger, as players began to use illegal performance-enhancing supplements. Home runs and strikeouts skyrocketed as ballpark dimensions shortened yet further. The league was split into three divisions, with a Wild Card team from each league making the playoffs every season. Interleague play was instituted, and pitching strategy became much more specialized, as starters rarely completed their games, and set-up roles and the single inning closers role in the bullpen were introduced.

What era will we embark upon - or have we embarked upon - for roughly the middle to later part of this decade? Home runs and extra base hits have certainly decreased and performance-enhancing supplements are now, for the most part, banned in baseball. In my opinion, this era will comprise of fewer and fewer home runs hit, but little to no implementation of the "small ball" that dominated much of the Dead Ball and Free Agency eras. Teams will not hit-and-run, bunt, or steal as even often as during the Live Ball Era. Instead, players will continue to sacrifice strikeouts for walks. Home runs will not be eliminated entirely, as league leaders will probably still hit around 35 to 40 in a single season. Players' careers - notably, those of position players - will not last nearly as long as players do not artificially defy their age progressions.

Statistics will be further implemented in this era as the influence from books such as Moneyball (Michael Lewis) will continue to be profound. Notably, definitive defensive statistics - better than those like range factor, error total, and fielding percentage - will arrive, and teams will jump on them almost universally like they did with the new-found significance of on-base percentage in the early 2000s. Managers will be far more creative with their usage of relief pitchers, as the closers' role will expand to two or more innings, and closers - by roughly 2015 - will begin to toss multiple innings routinely, and will be used for roughly 100 innings in a particular season.

Doubles and triples will increase, and teams will continue to operate by the old strategy of defense up the middle and power on the corners. Baseball will become more of a worldwide sport, as players from non-traditional baseball continents such as Europe and Asia will enter the big leagues at even greater numbers. Organizations will exercise talent-building abroad, and might set up institutions in other locations than Venezuela and the Dominican Republic.

Also, unfortunately in the eyes of Royals fans, baseball will continue to demonstrate a lack of parity, as large-market teams will continue to rule the roost more often than not as the Players' Union dominates the business aspect of the game. As a result, no league expansion will take place, and the structure of the league will remain nearly identical. The designated hitter will finally be implemented in the National League at the end of the era, much to the dismay of baseball traditionalist fans. The arrival of blogs will continue to revolutionize the game, and sabermetrics instituted by these blogs will become much more influential and widely understood by the majority of even the most casual of baseball fans. Individual teams will celebrate their beautiful new ballparks or relics, as each ballclub will likely have their "ideal" ballpark to call home by 2015. (The Rays, Marlins, Athletics, and Twins are currently in the works on new ballparks, which will likely be completed by then). Attendance will drop because of economic conditions, which could last for several more years, and prices at ballparks will drop in terms of value.

As far as implications for our Royals, this era, economically, promises more of the same, as the budget will likely be no greater than that of an average mid-market team for most years. However, the dimensions of Kauffman Stadium will play into our advantage as fewer and fewer longballs are hit throughout the league. Fortunately, salaries will likely finally even out as economic conditions become worse. (No, I'm not an economic expert, as this is pure rational-thinking speculation). The new ballpark will yield dividends, as resentment toward not building a ballpark downtown wanes, and communities east of Kansas City - notably, those in Lee's Summit and communities east of Johnson County - like those in Downtown K.C. - emerge yet further.

We know the Longball Era (R.I.P.) did not exactly treat Kansas City well, as many of its elements - like the offensive explosion - seemingly bypassed the team entirely, as Steve Balboni's rather dubious home run record of 36 set in 1985 still stands. (I never would have thought, in 1998, as Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire were dueling it out at an unprecedented power pace, that I could still say that in 2009). Hopefully, this new era will be characterized by much winning in the nation's heartland, as the Royals become perennial contenders, or at least competitors.

Hillman, you're on notice

2009-04-19T21:07:00.003-05:00

Words cannot describe the idiocy that took place in the mind of our skipper today. How on earth can you bypass Joakim Soria not once but twice - at the very least? He brings in Jamey Wright in the eighth inning, and after the game is tied, he calls upon Kyle Farnsworth - who was warming up minutes ago alongside Joakim Soria - who promptly surrenders the game winning blast?

Someone defend Hillman's handling of the bullpen today. Someone defend Hillman's handlings of the bullpen in games' past. Someone convince me why Hillman should not only NOT be the manager of the future, but the manager of the present, as well?

Delaying Soria for the game is absolute idiocy. It's a thousand other negative adjectives. Going with Farnsworth - loser of now three games - again - in such a critical situation is priceless. Utterly priceless.

I liked Hillman. I still like Hillman, but not as a manager. I wanted to believe in him. But now....as far as I'm concerned, he has lost ALL credibility.

*Edit* I'll rescind my clamor to fire Hillman now. Unfortunately, so many managers are so much the same. They're all quite mediocre with regard to game strategy. However, he should be on a short leash.

34.........and counting.

2009-04-19T00:22:00.005-05:00

Booooooom. Bom. Bom.

Ohhhh, yeahhhhhh......

BOM. BOM.

Ohhhhh......yeahhhh.....

BOOOOMM...BOM. BOM.

BOOOM. BOM. BOM.

Ohhhhhhh.......yeahhhhhhh.....

PRESS RELEASE
01/26/2009 12:49 PM ET
Royals sign Zack Greinke to a four-year contract through 2012

BOOOMMM. BOM. BOM.

Chick......

CHICKA - CHICKAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH.......

Game over, man!!!!!

Game over!!!!!!

Royals Organizational Update

2009-04-18T16:03:00.006-05:00

Two Royals' Minor Leaguers, Wilmington (A+) catcher Joe Billick and Burlington (A) infielder Juan Rivera, have been suspended 50 games apiece for testing positive for performance-enhancing supplements. Billick has demonstrated solid plate discipline since being drafted in the 19th round of the 2007 amateur entry draft out of the University of Georgia, but hasn't hit, otherwise. At this point, he is a non-prospect and organizational player, as he has posted a career .195/.332/.260 line thus far in 154 plate appearances. He turns 24 in May.

Juan Rivera was obtained late last summer in the Angel Berroa trade. He possesses plus-speed and a good glove up the middle, but can't hit much, otherwise. He has been listed as a darkhorse prospect and a Minor Leaguer to watch by a number of sources, but his career .247/.309/.280 line, thus far, is more than a bit underwhelming.

It's disappointing that any player - let alone Minor League players - are using such supplements. They know they'll get caught. As Royals Corner, or Dave Sanford, stated on his Scout.com website, I would probably buy any excuse they made surrounding the use of these PED's. Any prospect status they ever had, though, has decreased marketedly. They join outfielder Jarrod Dyson, who has already been suspended for illegal drug usage (as has infielder Jason Taylor, though in his case, not for steroids, and his usage violated team policy rather than league policy).

Anyway, down on the farm....

The AAA Omaha Royals are currently 5-4 and in third place in the Pacific Coast League American Division North. They are 1 1/2 games out of first place.

The AA Northwest Arkansas Naturals are 4-4, and tied for first place in the Texas League Northern Division.

The High-A Wilmington Blue Rocks are 5-4, and tied for second place in the Carolina League Northern Division.

The Low-A Burlington Bees are 2-6, and tied for last place in the Midwest League Western Division.

For our Hot & Not Segment, we'll focus on one affiliate at a time. We'll start with Omaha Royals.

Who's Hot:

- Omaha outfielder Chris Lubanski, drafted in the first round of the 2003 amateur entry draft, has been white-hot as of late. He is hitting .406/.486/.688 through the first week of Pacific Coast League action. Throughout the past couple years, his prospect status decreased significantly because of his diminishing range, speed, contact ability, and inability to play center field. However, he arrived at Spring Training camp in 2009 in slimmer shape. It would be nice to see Lubanski, who has not been protected on the 40-man roster the past two seasons, finally regain his prospect status. He has always been slow to adjust to each level, so we'll see.

- Starting pitcher Luke Hochevar, who had one option season remaining, has made two starts, thus far, and has allowed three earned runs in 11 innings pitched. The organization opted to send him to AAA Omaha and instead use offseason acquisition Sidney Ponson, who signed a Minor League contract in March, and even Horacio Ramirez in the rotation over the former #1 overall draft pick. A faulty decision indeed, says yours truly. If they recall Hochevar before he has accumulated enough time to buy an extra season before Free Agency, then the decision will have been a complete waste, in my opinion. Regardless, I'm no scout, but hopefully Hoch has built his stamina and has worked on his sinkerball and his stamina, which needed work, according to the organization.

- Outfielder Mitch Maier, who was recalled to Kansas City a couple days ago, was hitting .370/.419/.667 through his first six games in Omaha. He was 10-for-27 overall with two home runs. Maier is a left-handed hitter who is a plus-plus defender in the outfield, a plus-runner, and a decent contact hitter. Although, much like Hal Morris offensively, he provides little other than a probable .270 or so batting average, I like him as a potential injury or off-day fill-in and permanent fourth outfielder. Hopefully, he will receive the vast bulk of the playing time in Kansas City in right field until Jose Guillen (gulp) returns from the 15-Day Disabled List.

- Infielder Luis Hernandez is essentially the clone of MLB SS Tony Pena, Jr., in that he provides stellar infield defense but can't hit his way out of a paper bag. Nonetheless, the 2008-9 Spring Training invitee and Minor League signee is hitting .407/.429/.519 through his first 27 at-bats. He has three extra base hits, overall, on the season.

Who's Not:

- First baseman Ryan Shealy should have been placed on the 25-man roster at the beginning of the season. He could potentially spell Mike Jacobs and Billy Butler at first base, provide some pop off the bench, provide as a formidable late-inning defensive replacement at first, and could platoon with Jacobs, hitting against primarily left-handed pitching, against whom Jacobs struggles immensely. Nonetheless, Shealy was passed through waivers and was sent to Omaha, and he has hit only .257/.297/.314 and is 9-for-35 in his first eight games.

- First baseman Kila Ka'aihue, whom I ranked as our #3 prospect prior to the season, is only hitting .152/.333/.364 through his first 33 games. Nonetheless, he is still leading the O-Royals in walks (10) and has hit for some pop, hitting two home runs and one double, thus far. I'll chalk Ka'aihue's performance up to small sample size. The walks and isolated power are still there. Maybe Ka'ahiue can gun for Balboni's home run record next season, if Jacobs doesn't break it this year (hopefully, God willing, he will).

Poll Results, Week 5: Trey Hillman's Job Performance

2009-04-18T13:59:00.003-05:00

This poll was begun at a somewhat conspicuous time, as the Royals were seemingly still fresh off their heels of blowing Opening Day in Chicago, mainly because of a certain relief pitcher that Trey Hillman decided to use in an inappropriate time. Yes, Kyle Farnsworth has drawn boos and jeers throughout the blogosphere, and perhaps for good reason. However, Farnsy has always been a sufficient reliever for noncrucial and middle relief roles. He is precisely not the pitcher to implement with the game on the line. However, stubbornly, Trey Hillman decided to use him in the most critical situation in the game, against a left-handed power hitter who loves right-handed fastball hurlers, and in a hitters' park. Wrong move. Farnsworth promptly blew the Royals' one-run lead, surrendering a 3-run, 440-foot jack to straightaway center. Moves like these typify many managers, who stubbornly ignore statistical evidence and instead act according to their at times irrational gut feelings. Royals manager, especially Tony Pena and Tony Muser, have done this. Damn the splits!

Beyond his implementation of our offseason, $9+MM signee, Trey Hillman has made many questionable moves in his still brief tenure with K.C. He mishandled the rotation and bullpen at times in 2008, using Brett Tomko in crucial situations, using Hideo Nomo early in a middle relief role, refusing to call in Joakim Soria for the save because "he wasn't available", pulling the string too early with Gil Meche, and many more. His overuse of Ross Gload was also a detriment to this ballclub, costing Billy Butler development and forcing Ryan Shealy, who according to the Baseball Analysts' league adjustor, would have performed significantly better than Gload offensively last year had he received as many plate appearances in Kansas City. Shealy's plus-defense also would have provided a greater boost.

Regardless, I gave Hillman a 'D+' for his performance for the season. Mainly, Opening Day in Chicago reinforced my belief that Hillman should not be the "Manager of the Future" for this ballclub. It's unfortunate, and I had such high hopes when Hillman assumed helm in the 2007-8 offseason. I felt he demonstrated a vague open-mindedness toward new-school statistics, understood sample size, and had a formidable reputation, having managed in the New York Yankees' farm system and in Japan. I felt - and still feel - he is a nice guy. However, he probably needed more seasoning in Major League Baseball other than at the managers' helm. Although he didn't implement the small-ball game to an arduous degree last season, Greg Schaum has told me that he loves bunting and the hit-and-run, two grossly outdated forms of strategy, in my opinion. Hillman's handling of the running game was poor, last year, as the Royals stole merely 68% of bases successfully - a net loss of a handful of runs. So the Royals would have been better off not stealing at all in '08. (Actually, I disagree with this number slightly, because it doesn't take situations into consideration, but that's another argument for another time).

As for your responses, the average (median) score was 5.8125, which rounds up to a 'C', which I consider slightly below average (average score is a 'C+', because it's halfway between an 'A+' and an 'F'). Regardless, there were 4 votes for 'F', meaning - as sometimes is the case with home team managers - Hillman has bordered on angering many blogosphere fans, and perhaps (in some situations) rightfully so. Hillman received 1 vote apiece in the 'good' grade categories. Either way, it's food for thought. Our skipper certainly hasn't fared well in his first year with the club. He can improve, but improvement involves refining his tactics in a number of different facets. Notably, in my opinion:

- Using Joakim Soria more liberally and using our better relief pitchers more often in high-leverage situations
- Implementing the running game to a greater degree - notably, stolen base efficiency
- Limiting bunts and hit-and-run to close and late situations, primarily when we're ahead, or in National League parks when pitchers are batting
- Knowing which position players to use and in which times

Obviously, a successful manager not only must use proper tactics in strategy - during in-game decisions - but must provide all those intangibles that separate the Earl Weavers, Whitey Herzogs, and Sparky Andersons from the Tony Musers. He must handle the different personalities accordingly, must provide as a 'leader' in the clubhouse, and must handle practices and drills - notably, those prior to ballgames and during Spring Training - competently. He also must be willing to listen to other coaches on the team, taking their advice and acting accordingly with use of player personnel.

Regardless, it will continue to be an uphill battle for our skipper. I noted previously - and on the 610 AM Royals' postgame show with Robert Ford and Greg Schaum - that the best method of "outperforming the expectations" is distribution of playing time, and perhaps more importantly in some cases, distribution of playing time where it counts. Farnsworth must accumulate more non-high leverage innings, Willie Bloomquist and Tony Pena must be late-inning defensive replacements and, in the case of the former, must receive spot-starts only occasionally. Our best hitters must receive the most plate appearances. And much more.

Interesting poll results. I'm going to continue this as a prominent feature of the blog. Don't be afraid to make your opinions known. Hey, as bloggers and blog-dwellers.....it's usually all we have.

Talking Points Memo

2009-04-15T14:49:00.003-05:00

I've started another feature of the blog, not dissimilar to a daily feature of the #1 leading Cable News Network program (phrase used ironically) The O'Reilly Factor with uber-sensitive guy Bill O'Reilly. Essentially, in "Talking Points Memo", I will discuss several topics which are not directly game-related, but topics which I feel are relevant in Royals discussion.

#1. Joakim Soria should gradually be moved to the starting rotation.
I used to advocate strongly for Soria's move, but now only moderately do so. I feel the organization should at least remain open about committing to moving him in the future. For one, I believe Soria should not be deemed a 'closer', which nowadays implies that he is essentially a 1-inning and sometimes 1+ inning pitcher. I believe we should deem him 'bullpen ace', only to be implemented in the highest leverage of situations and a pitcher who should receive multiple innings in the 'pen. I would be satisfied if Soria could eventually pitch 100+ innings in a season, even in the bullpen, where he would likely still dominate. If his arm does not fatigue, he could then be experimented in a starting rotation role, either piggybacking with other pitchers (the Jamey Wrights and Robinson Tejedas of the world - longmen capable of pitching multiple innings). If things go well, a #2/#3-caliber starter is still more valuable than a 70-inning closer, which is the role the Mexicutioner currently occupies. I think the advantages to shifting Joakim to the rotation far outweigh the disadvantages.

Reasons Soria should move to the rotation:
- He started in the Minor Leagues, and pitched a perfect game in the Mexican Leagues
- He has a slender build, but still possesses a height advantage as he is 6-foot-3.
- He possesses four plus-pitches, including an uber-nasty fastball, curveball, and change up.
- The Royals are always in need of more starting pitching
- A 3.5-4.2 ERA starter is more valuable than a closer. If Soria could exceed this, then great. If he can't, then shift him back to the bullpen ace role, with the capability of pitching multiple innings and in high-leverage situations
- An extremely team-friendly contract presents not an overwhelming amount of risk

Reasons Soria should not move to the rotation:
- If his arm fatigues or he injures himself pitching 100+ innings in the bullpen, it would severely effect our future win total
- The 'risk factor': he *could* injure himself permanently
- Despite being 6'3", he still has a slender build
- He only throws 91, which means his fastball will likely diminish by 1-2 mph. in the starting role. Does an 89 mph. fastball really translate to super successful starting pitchier more often than not in the starting role?

Don't you feel Soria, if the transition is successful, can provide more value in the starting five? Note that Dayton Moore has performed admirably at acquiring a quantity and quality in the bullpen. I am confident that a pitcher such as Juan Cruz or even Ron Mahay could fulfill the 9th inning role. I understand there is a nostalgic, "feel good" factor about having the Mexicutioner enter games to shut down the opposition for one inning, and he is certainly a fan favorite in that role. However, I maintain the position that closers and saves are overrated, and starting pitchers with ERAs of 4-4.2 are slightly underrated. In fact, I might be underrating Soria by stating he would only post ERAs of 4-4.2. At the very least, in the bullpen role, let's stretch him out, a bit. As a former starter, I think he could handle it. Any thoughts?

7 Games Complete

2009-04-14T15:28:00.005-05:00

Several notes, as the Royals wrap up their first week of baseball with a 4-3 record.

I have noticed several defensive lapses in the team, notably on the right side of the infield. Willie Bloomquist starting in right field could not have helped, and (although I, unfortunately, did not see it) Captain Grit slid early for a baseball and let the ball bounce behind him last Saturday evening. The Royals obviously ended up losing that game 6-1, so any defensive (or pitching) lapses did not particularly prove costly. Bloomquist's error also did not cost the Royals any runs in that particular instance. However, it is worth noting that Mike Jacobs has already committed one error and has not exhibited exactly ideal range even for a first baseman the first month into the season. This is cause for concern, and the defensive metrics still believe Billy Butler could perform slightly more adequately than the man with the amazing chin-hair.

Over on Royals Review, I proposed beginning a community project where us fans merge heads and estimate - as scientifically as possible - how many runs particular defenders cost the Royals throughout the season. As the various defensive metrics, as well as basic defensive statistics like error total and fielding percentage, are still highly questionable, I wanted to encourage the blogosphere to keep attempting to reach that zen where we can ultimately quantify defense in terms of runs allowed vs. runs cost - and by doing so gauge how important defense truly is when evaluating a ballplayer. It seems that on the back of any baseball card, on any baseball website, or even on websites such as Fangraphs, defense is highly overlooked and is often taken for granted. Such an oversight takes place among casual and diehard fans, and traditional and new school-oriented fans alike. Bringing defense to among the forefront of baseball discussion: one of TRT's goals for 2009.

Below are some various statistics worth chewing on as we proceed into the second week, and hopefully winning our second series of the season against the Cleveland Indians this evening at Kauffman Stadium.

Category: Total (League Rank [T means Tie])

Offense
HR: 4 (13/14)
BA: .198 (14/14)
OBP: .275 (14/14)
SLG: .566 (14/14)
RS: 18 (14/14)
OPS+: 56 (14/14)
SB%: 66.7% (T10/14 the break even point is roughly 72%, according to Baseball Prospectus)

Defense
F%: .992 (2/14)
E: 2 (T10/14)
Ugh - I know these are faulty statistics. Anyone want to provide defensive efficiency ranking totals or something of that nature?

Pitching
ERA: 3.05 (1/14)
K: 65 (1/14)
BB: 22 (4/14)
ER: 21 (2/14)

Obviously, the pitching and offense are two different stories. I was surprised the Royals had only made two errors thus far in the season. With several gaffes by Aviles, Jacobs, and Bloomquist, I'm surprised we didn't have more. It just proves how faulty that statistics is, in general. Whatever improvements Kevin Seitzer was supposed to make clearly haven't been made, yet. And I understand pitching coaches aren't terribly significant - and most are probably only minimally significant - at the Major League level. Pitching coaches are, and I happen to be a rather fervent fan of ours, Bob McClure. Although that might have been because he lived directly across from me last year.

I digress. No wOBA, no tRA, no fancy statistics this time around.

For those who are wondering, I'm helping compile summaries and synopses for the website Left of the Foul Pole, the new 610 Sports AM website dedicated to the Royals. I'm helping out most significantly with the game summaries, whereas Greg Schaum and Robert Ford compile the Blue Collar Plays of the Game, the Hot and Cold Players of the Game, the Diamonds in the Rough, and more.

Call into the postgame show sometime. It is on 610 Sports immediately following the game.

Let's grab a 'V' for victory, tonight!

Poll Results, Week 4: Dayton Moore's Job Performance

2009-04-10T15:32:00.005-05:00

Ladies and gentlemen, whe week four poll results are in. I am currently unsure as to how to access blog readership at Blogger, but a plentiful amount of you have participated in my weekly polls. I now have 10 followers, and I suspect that more and more people are tuning into the statistical and scouting analysis and yet more incessant babbling that takes place once every few days. I digress.... but in the latest poll, I asked you how you felt Dayton Moore has performed as General Manager - overall - throughout the first 2 1/2 years of his tenure.

A+: 0 (votes)
A: 2
A-: 4
B+: 2
B: 4
B-: 5
C+: 3
C: 0
C-: 1
D+: 1
D: 1
D-: 1
F: 1

To calculate the average score, I simply used a 1-13 scale, with '1' being F and '13' being A+. I then multiplied those coefficients by the number of votes used for that particular grade (coefficient). I then divided by the number of total votes to obtain the average score.

The average score was '7.8', which is roughly a C+ or B-, depending on how you round. If you round up, the score is above 7.75, which is roughly between a C+ and B-. Because there were far more scores in the upper tier, I decided to round up to a B-. Overall, followers of The Royal Treatment believe Moore has performed slightly above average.

Several months ago, I might have agreed with this score. However, I now feel that Moore can effectively be deemed no better than an average General Manager. He's probably a C-caliber G.M., at this point. His strengths have, unfortunately, been outweighed by his weaknesses thus far. However, if his successful 2007 and 2008 drafts (in my opinion) can eventually manifest at the MLB level, churning out two or three prospects every season, then the opposite effect will take place. Although I feel some of the low assigned grades - one F, D-, D, and D+ - are too harsh, I feel one can make an argument for anywhere between a C- and B that I would eventually agree with.

Below, I have outlined several of his strengths and weaknesses, and the degree of significance, 1-5, for each of those strengths and weaknesses.

Strengths:

- Scouting and player development. He has hired arguably excellent player development team in J.J. Picollo, Scott Sharp, and Mike Arbuckle, proving that even small-market organizations can attract names of formerly prominent organizations such as Arbuckle. The latter was instrumental in building the successful Phillies teams of recent time. Picollo had experienced sucess with the Braves and seems to be building a solid Minor League nucleus.
5

- Bullpen and starting pitching evaluation. Although this has cooled somewhat recently, with the acquisition of players such as Ponson, re-acquisition of Horacio Ramirez, and Kyle Farnsworth, he seems to understand the concept that bullpens can be built and rebuilt successfully season after season, using different personnel. He has clearly won the Dotel-for-Kyle Davies trade of June 2007. The Meche signing, thouigh uncompromisingly bold, can be deemed a success, thus far. We have gained relief help from unexpected and unglamorous places, such as the Rule 5 draft (Soria), trades involving Players to be named (Ramon Ramirez), and 1-year rehabilitation contracts (Octavio Dotel).
5

- Understanding and application of building organizational depth. Hiring a quantity - as well as quality - of players is important, as players often become sidelined with injuries throughout the course of the grueling 162-plus game baseball season. Also, Minor League signings, participation in the Rule 5 draft, and Spring Training invitees have been plentiful on his part. After all, there is almost no downside to Minor League and cost-controlled acquisitions, unless there is a significant opportunity cost with implementing those signees in the incorrect fashion (such as with Sidney Ponson).
3

Weaknesses:

- Offensive/position player talent evaluation. Tony Pena. Ross Gload. Jose Guillen. Mike Jacobs. Possibly Willie Bloomquist. All near-replacement caliber players who have received significant playing time under Dayton Moore's tenure. Also, in the first 33 innings of the Royals baseball season, we have scored a grand total of 7 runs. Through the first three games of the season, the Royals drew only one more walk than last year. The Royals have placed near last in the last three seasons in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and home runs. We went through epic stretches in 2007 and 2008 where the offense did nearly nothing. Moore must improve in this area, which is as important as pitching and much more important than defense (although it is arguably whether the area is more important than both combined).
5

- Understanding of replacement value. Bill Shanks, the author of the book Scouts's Honor: The Bravest Way To Build A Winning Team, once proclaimed proudly that Moore did not, in fact, know what VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), a Baseball Prospectus statistic, meant. Now, VORP has become slightly outdated, in my opinion, because of statistics such as WAR which evaluate a player on both offense and defense (VORP evaluates solely on offense), but Moore has demonstrated through numerous acquisitions that he does not emphasize on-base percentage and other plate patience statistics such as pitches per plate appearances and not making outs nearly as proficiently as he should. Many of his trades and acquisitions have involved getting players with little ability to get on-base. Scout's Honor was essentially a reply to the book Moneyball, written by Michael Lewis in 2003. Scout's Honor implied that there are multiple ways to build successful ballclubs, and that Moneyball was essentially not all it was hyped up to be. Shanks is correct in that there are multiple ways to build a successful ballclub. However, I happen to believe that it is easily the most successful route for a small-market ballclub. I could literally write about this for days, but let's stop here.
5 (would be smaller in other markets)

- Inability to demonstrate keen understanding and implementation of sabermetrics and statistics. See above. It's fairly obvious that Moore does not fully implement fielding metrics, on-base percentage, among other unconventional statistics.
5 (although a '10' or '20' would also be applicable scores)

- Overemphasis of High School pitchers in the draft. A rather small flaw, in comparison. However, what's with the abundance of High School pitchers in early rounds? Draft them in later rounds, as high school pitchers are still so difficult to project at early stages. Rany and Rob Neyer have written about this.
3

Keep in mind this list is far from incomplete. More is entailed in managing a ballclub than simply those philosophies. Some of his strategies can be deemed 'neutral.' In other words, they aren't necessarily strengths or weaknesses.

I believe Moore has, overall, made strides to build the organization from reportedly below expansion franchise-caliber to the respectable franchise that it is now. He has built the Minor League system and scouting and player development departments through successful drafts and simply hiring the best connections. He added a Minor League affiliate in the Burlington Royals. The organization has expanded its Latin American and overseas influences (hiring teenage Korean and South African players over the offseason). However, he has much work left to do at the Major League level. It remains to be seen whether he is the General Manager who can push the Royals into a contender, let alone a consistently competitive franchise. He has misallocated much money, already, despite convincing Glass to finally open his pursestrings and act like a dedicated owner.

Any thoughts on Moore's job performance thus far, or any reaction to my comments or explanations for your grades?

Opening Day Has Arrived

2009-04-07T00:52:00.004-05:00

At long last, Spring, Opening Day, and the green grass has arrived.

*Checks weather outside*

.....Or not. Regardless, baseball is back. After a grueling offseason, which consisted of prototypical midwestern wildly transitional weather, usually involving bitter cold, deadness outside, and continuously bracing yourself before walking outside in your jumpsuit, mittens, and face mask. Now, it may be overcast and 40 degrees outside....still....in early April....but you can't win 'em all.

Let's check the latest Royals news.

The 25-man roster has been finalized. There are obviously several surprises, and several position players and pitchers that I, bluntly, never would have thought to be stationed on the roster at the beginning of the offseason. In my opinion, several positive or potentially beneficial moves took place - placing Brayan Pena on the roster, trading Ross Gload, getting Ryan Shealy to remain in the organization, demonstrating necessary creativity in letting Teahen and his evidently improving second base defense remain at that position, and proceeding with a 5-man bench to begin the season. Unfortunately, it seems the negatives outweighed the positives, though. Tony Pena and his heiling -2 WAR will backup shortstop (and possibly second base), Kyle Farnsworth will be our primary setup man to Joakim Soria, Sidney Ponson made the roster, Ryan Shealy has been sent to AAA Omaha, and the Opening Day lineup is, well, a little bit funky.

Side Note: I have posted incomplete Royals Minor League rosters at Royals Corner. It appears plenty of players - mostly pitchers - will remain in Arizona for extended Spring Training. As a guideline, this appears to be a good idea. Building depth in the Minor League system - even in quantity, if not quality - never hurt. The Wilmington rotation could potentially be loaded, with arms like Santiago, Gutierrez, Duffy, Montgomery, and Fisher hopefully stationed there by midseason. Also, the Omaha Royals could provide some (possibly well) above replacement-caliber talent in Ryan Shealy, Tug Hulett, J.R. House, Mitch Maier, Kila Ka'aihue, and Shane Costa. One minor complaint is that several players appear to be repeating particular levels - Chris Hayes in particular. I understand the organization wanting to transition Jeff Bianchi to shortstop, and thereby letting him repeat Wilmington for another year. Last year wasn't an exactly great year for the 22-year old, anyway. The Wilmington offense is loaded with worthy top 25 prospects: Mike Moustakas, Derrick Robinson, Jeff Bianchi, and Johnny Giavotella, to name four.

As I implied, Royals Message Board Nation has literally been topsy turvy in the last few weeks, with the negative backlash perhaps outweighing the positive. Opinions have been altered somewhat, even among the most cynical at heart of Royals bloggers. Bold declarations have been made. Regardless, perhaps the fact that Jason Smith - who made the Astros' Opening Day 25-man roster - would be our best power-hitting bench threat should reveal something telling about our front office. Defense - notably defense up the middle - takes a dominant priority over offense, especially on-base percentage and power-hitting. As far as probable backups go, why sign Bloomquist when Tony Pena is already on the roster? Why retain Pena, if we have Bloomquist? These are questions that need to be answered if we are to outperform our projections in 2009, and (hopefully) compete in a division that CHONE, PECOTA, and general consensus claims is wide open for the season.

Bullpen - and, to perhaps a lesser extent, starting rotation - construction has been one of Moore's primary strengths as General Manager, in addition to raw scouting potential and drafting and Minor League player development. Moore has made several optimal signings to both areas, such as Gil Meche, Joakim Soria, David Riske, Ron Mahay, and possibly Juan Cruz. However, deeming Kyle Farnsworth primary set-up man and positioning Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez to be our #4 and #5 starters are puzzling, at best. Very, very puzzling.

Here is the final 25-man roster:

Catchers: John Buck, Miguel Olivo, Brayan Pena
Infielders: Mike Aviles, Willie Bloomquist, Billy Butler, Alberto Callaspo, Alex Gordon, Mike Jacobs, Tony Pena, Mark Teahen
Outfielders: Coco Crisp, David DeJesus, Jose Guillen
Starting pitchers: Kyle Davies, Zack Greinke, Gil Meche, Horacio Ramirez
Relief pitchers: Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth, Ron Mahay, Joakim Soria, Robinson Tejeda, Doug Waechter, Jamey Wright

Let's examine that Opening Day lineup, proposed by Trey Hillman. Keep in mind that the lineup will obviously face a left-handed pitcher in Mark Buehrle.

1. Crisp, CF
2. DeJesus, LF
3. Teahen, 2B
4. Guillen, RF
5. Jacobs, 1B
6. Butler, DH
7. Gordon, 3B
8. Olivo, C
9. Aviles, SS

For the record, I don't place much stock in lineups, let alone Opening Day lineups. Roster transactions will soon take place - players such as Brayan Pena, Jamey Wright, and Tony Pena could very well be off the roster, soon, once Sidney Ponson (and, later, perhaps John Bale) is activated.

However, why is Aviles batting 9th? He destroyed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .348/.392/.574 line last season, and (small sample size alert) hit .359/.388/.531 against the Chicago White Sox last year. For the matter, why is Teahen batting third, against the lefty? Guillen is obviously still fourth, but I think a reasonable argument could be made that he should bat lower. I've come resigned to the fact that Crisp will remain in the leadoff hole virtually most of the season, barring a slump or unexpected decline in performance. If he steals efficiently and posts around a .340 OBP, I'll be content with that move. Olivo does hit lefties much well, and throws runners out at a decent clip despite residual complaints about his defense among pitchers. (Unfortunately, that has always been Olivo's reputation. As a pitcher, I, personally, was not picky with regard to catchers).

For the record, here is just one optimal Baseball Musings' Royals lineup, using the 2009 CHONE projections. Holy Cow, I've contradicted myself with regard to Mark Teahen. Keep in mind that this is a generic lineup, not against lefties or righties. That is one particular flaw in CHONE - as far as I can recall, it does not implement splits.

LF Dejesus
DH Butler
2B Teahen
1B Jacobs
3B Gordon
RF Guillen
SS Aviles
C Olivo
CF Crisp

Here is my optimal lineup, using our nine starters.

vs. RHP:

LF - DeJesus
SS - Aviles
3B - Gordon
1B - Butler
DH - Jacobs
RF - Guillen
2B - Teahen
CF - Crisp
C - Olivo

vs. LHP:

LF - DeJesus
SS - Aviles
1B - Butler
DH - Jacobs
RF - Guillen
C - Olivo
3B - Gordon
CF - Crisp
2B - Teahen

But enough about lineups. From what I have read, isn't the difference between a 'good' and 'bad' lineup, using the same players, about 40 runs over the course of a season, anyway? Significant, indeed, but definitely not as significant as filling out an optimal 25-man roster (or, hell, for that matter, a 40-man roster).

You know what? I'm looking forward to tomorrow, and hopefully competing this season in a possibly wide open division. I'm looking forward to interning for Greg Schaum of 610 Sports this summer, working for the postgame show, and (soon) writing for another blog, in addition to this one. More on those stories later....stay tuned.

TRT 2009 MLB Predictions

2009-04-06T23:59:00.002-05:00

Below are predictions for each team, preceeding (well, by two days) the 2009 season. My postseason and award predictions are below. In the parentheses, I've provided my prediction for "Team Most Valuable Player (M.V.P.)", or the top Dempsey-predicted WAR player and pitcher for 2009. Also, I've provided predictions for my awardees, including basic statistics and sabermetrics alike.

* = Wildcard Team

AL West:
1. Los Angeles 92-70, - (Vladimir Guerrero, John Lackey)
2. Texas 84-78, 8 GB (Josh Hamilton, Kevin Millwood)
3. Oakland 78-84, 14 (Eric Chavez, Joey Devine)
4. Seattle 71-91, 21 (Ichiro Suzuki, Felix Hernandez)

AL Central:
1. Minnesota 86-76, - (Joe Mauer, Scott Baker)
2. Cleveland 84-78, 2 (Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee)
3. Kansas City 79-83, 7 (David DeJesus, Zack Greinke)
4. Detroit 77-85, 9 (Curtis Granderson, Justin Verlander)
5. Chicago 76-86, 10 (Carlos Quentin, Mark Buehrle)

AL East:
1. Boston 95-67, - (Kevin Youkilis, Josh Beckett)
*2. New York 93-69, 2 (Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia)
3. Tampa Bay 89-73, 6 (B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir)
4. Toronto 80-82, 15 (Vernon Wells, Roy Halladay)
5. Baltimore 69-93, 16 (Nick Markakis, Jeremy Guthrie)

League Record: 1153-1115

NL West:
1. Los Angeles 92-70, - (Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley)
*2. Arizona 90-72, 2 (Justin Upton, Brandon Webb)
3. San Diego 78-84, 14 (Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young - Peavy gets traded mid-season)
4. Colorado 74-88, 18 (Chris Iannetta, Ubaldo Jimenez)
5. San Francisco 73-89, 19 (Aaron Rowand, Tim Lincecum)

NL Central:
1. Chicago 93-69, - (Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano)
2. Cincinnati 83-79, 10 (Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez)
3. Milwaukee 79-83, 14 (Ryan Braun, Yovany Gallardo)
4. St. Louis 73-89, 20 (Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright)
5. Houston 72-90, 21 (Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt)
6. Pittsburgh 69-93, 24 (Ryan Doumit, Paul Maholm)

NL East:
1. New York 94-68, - (David Wright, Johan Santana)
2. Atlanta 87-75, 7 (Chipper Jones, Derek Lowe)
3. Philadelphia 85-77, 9 (Chase Utley, Cole Hamels)
4. Washington 70-92, 24 (Elijah Dukes, John Lannan)
5. Florida 66-96, 28 (Hanley Ramirez, Ricky Nolasco)

League Record: 1278 - 1314

ALDS: Minnesota over New York (in 5)
ALDS: Los Angeles over Boston (in 5)
NLDS: Arizona over Chicago (in 4)
NLDS: New York over Los Angeles (in 4)
ALCS: Los Angeles over Minnesota (in 5)
NLCS: Arizona over New York (in 7)
WS: Los Angeles over Arizona (in 6)

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (Prediction: .285/.372/.501/.873, 30 HR, 84 RBI, 31/7 SB/CS, 128 OPS+, +7 defender, 6.0 WAR)
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis (Prediction: .336/.440/.615/1.055, 40 HR, 112 RBI, 4/3 SB/CS, 164 OPS+, +8 defender, 9.4 WAR)
(for the first time in a long time [it seems, I think], two MVP's for non-playoff clubs in the same season....I think Pujols is hands down THE best player in MLB).
AL Cy: Felix Hernandez, Seattle (stretch, I know - Prediction: 15-11, 3.27 ERA, 211.2 IP, 74 BB, 179 K, 33 GS, 130 ERA+, 4.1 WAR, 3.66 FIP)
NL Cy: Brandon Webb, Arizona (Prediction: 18-9, 3.22 ERA, 231.0 IP, 63 BB, 186 K, 34 GS, 141 ERA+, 5.6 WAR, 3.73 FIP)
AL ROY: Matt Wieters, Baltimore (Prediction: .276/.345/.446/.791, 13 HR, 67 RBI, 2/1 SB/CS, 107 OPS+, +1 defender, 2.3 WAR)
NL ROY: Dexter Fowler, Colorado (Prediction: .283/.351/.412/.763, 8 HR, 63 RBI, 23/11 SB/CS, 102 OPS+, +0 defender, 1.9 WAR)
AL Manager: Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota (Twins exceed many expectations again, riding an excellent pitching staff to another October)
NL Manager: Bobby Cox, Atlanta (Bobby Cox, former G.M., works the magic again)
AL Fireman: Mariano Rivera, New York (Prediction: 5-3, 2.17 ERA, 67.2 IP, 13 BB, 51 K, 67 G, 42/46 SV/SVO, 155 ERA+, 2.9 WAR, 2.75 FIP)
NL Fireman: Francisco Rodriguez, New York (Prediction: 3-4, 2.65 ERA, 74.2 IP, 23 BB, 77 K, 70 G, 46/51 SV/SVO, 148 ERA+, 2.5 WAR, 2.77 FIP)

Poll Results, Week 3: Royals Win Total

2009-04-02T15:49:00.003-05:00

A record forty (40) people cast their (final) votes for the Royals win total in 2009, and the results were roughly what I expected. It's worth noting that PECOTA projected 75 wins (and a fourth place finish) for the Royals in 2009, while CHONE projected 71 wins for this year. How did The Royal Treatment readers and followers feel?

Less than 70: 0 (0%)
70-71: 0 (0%)
72-73: 1 (2%)
74-75: 1 (2%)
76-77: 1 (2%)
78-79: 7 (17%)
80-81: 6 (15%)
82-83: 8 (20%)
84-85: 10 (25%)
86-87: 0 (0%)
88-89: 2 (5%)
90 or more: 4 (10%)

How I calculated the average prediction was add the middle of each vote. For example, I counted each vote for 78-79 victories as a vote for "78.5" wins. As for "90 or more", I decided to simply project 90 wins. Bluntly, it's quite a stretch to predict the Royals are going to win much more than 90 games this year. I understand some fan bias (and homerism) is to be expected - among yours truly, included - but it's just a little far-fetched to predict we beat the odds by more than 20 or so games. I'm not trying to downplay anyone's (optimistic) votes, but it would certainly be well above and beyond initial expectations.

Nonetheless, here is how the scores stack up:

Average score = 82.45 wins. So rounding down, that's 82 wins. Their first over-.500 season since 2003.

Question: Will the recent pitching moves of Ponson and HoRam being placed in the rotation and Hochevar and Bannister being sent to AAA Omaha affect the season win total at all?

More questions:

How can Trey Hillman distribute playing time differently to overcome the (somewhat) disappointing CHONE and PECOTA projections for 2009?
Can we expect Mark Teahen to fulfill (possible) expectations and approach his 2006 level of hitting?
Will Olivo and Buck truly combine for over 500 plate appearances again, this season?
Will Ryan Shealy, Brayan Pena, and Tony Pena, Jr. make the club and receive significant playing time?
Will Kila Ka'aihue even come remotely close to replicating his monster Minor League numbers of 2008, earning a possible call-up sooner than expected?
Will Billy Butler get extended playing time at first base, displacing Mike Jacobs to a more valuable role in designated hitter?

All worthwhile questions worth pondering. Those questions might significantly affect our win total in 2009.

Here is some more recent news:

- Gload sent to the Fish for a Player to be Named. An obvious move. Too bad we owe a significant amount of his salary, although if we could trade Tyler Lumsden for a player even of Jordan Parraz' caliber, then I'm anxious to see what we can net in return for the gritty utilityplayer.

- Joel Peralta released. His HR/FB rate was flukish in 2008, and I expect him to fulfill an organization's need as an effective 5th or 6th middle reliever, soon. I think a 4.5-5 ERA certainly isn't out of the question, this season.

- Here is the complete list of Minor League players who have been released by the organization:

RHP Joe Augustine, RHP Casey Feickert, RHP Paul Raglione, LHP Anthony Bradley,
LHP Jesse Carver, LHP John Foster, LHP Steve Gilgenbach, LHP Tim Huber, LHP
Orlando Rada, LHP Josh Ruhlman, 1B Devery Van De Keere, OF Brett Bigler, OF
Steve Boggs, OF Brad Correll, OF Warren McFadden

Here is what I posted over on Royals Corner about the cuts:

A little surprised at the release of Raglione, who was the #50 ranked prospect on Royals Corner prior to the 2008 season. Some of these guys were obviously well older for the levels (such as Foster & Van De Keere). A little surprised at the Bradley release...the random Omaha promotion of '07 was a little bizarre. Bigler, I thought, held his own at an advanced level last year. Correll hit well, although he was old for the level. I read some snippets about Huber following last year's draft. Other than that, I remember reading little to none about these guys. This *has* to be difficult for them, though.

MtRoyals: Raw

2009-03-31T19:22:00.003-05:00

Blogger and message boarder extraordinaire 'MtRoyals' joins us in this week's segment of 'Raw.' Antonio, or "The Great M.T.", as I deem him, permeates RoyalBoard like perhaps no other blogger. Although he has posted slightly less frequently, recently, he possesses the greatest non-virus infected post count for a poster over at that website. He also contributes at the Royals blog Royally Speaking, which contains Major and Minor League analysis. He began as an uber-controversial blogger, frequently proving conventional baseball wisdom and its followers wrong with the utmost of new-school sabermetrics. He reigned controversial over at RB, although his attacks seldom, if ever, became personal. He has feuded with several bloggers in the past, but since elevating himself to moderator status has become quite non-confrontational, despite rigidly holding to a bold and uncompromising writing style.

Forewarning: The views of the interviewee do not necessarily reflect the views of the interviewer. The 'Raw' series of this blog is simply an opportunity to interview uncompromising, bold, and at often times controversial members of the Royals blogosphere. MtRoyals has drawn ire and praise over at RB and RS, among other forums.

Recently, I had a chance to sit down in the The Royal Treatment megastudio with 'Mt'...business suit and all. Without further ado....

----------------------------------

TRT: Introduce yourself. How did you become baseball-obsessed?

MtRoyals: Obsession seems to come very naturally to me. If you love something, why not love it with the entirety of your heart and soul? As far as non-baseball related things, I have read the book It 15 times. I've read a ton of books devoted to the Beatles, and even to individual Beatles. I'm currently reading The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich because I LOVE things related to WWII. But to baseball, I left the US when I was eight and I had just really got interested in baseball when I left. When I came back in June of 90, George Brett was in the middle of winning his third batting title (he missed about a week when I came back and he was batting .259--amazing that he got up to where he did) and I lived as close to Royals Stadium as I ever had before. And there was finally someone wanting to take me to the games. (I remember the game well enough that I was able to look up the exact game on B-R, which isn't bad considering I was in the fifth grade.) My brother had already started a small baseball card collection and I started adding to it as well. Ahhh...1990 Donruss, what a fantastically appealing and ugly card! Considering that I was really "coming" to the game "late", I wanted to waste zero time catching up.

TRT: Some Royals fans claim that Jose Guillen had a successful year in 2008 because he hit .264 with 20 home runs and 97 RBI's in 153 games. Why and how can you prove this argument false?

MtRoyals: A successful year shouldn't be restricted to any small group of bland statistics like .260-20-97. Making outs matter. A lot of people, for a nonsensical reason, want to detach not getting out (OBP) and hits of any kind. Being on the base paths matter. Getting on base, whether via a walk, a single, double or a dropped third strike doesn't transfer your pressure as a hitter to your teammate hitting next but to the pitcher. You can sacrifice one way or the other, of course, as long as the proper value is assigned to each. Getting on base isn't just for the top 1-2 hitters. It's important for the at least the first six, but the further down the line it goes, the better, of course. Comparative stats matter in this game because the rules of the game are not uniform. What the environment does to affect the game is not uniform. Basketball/football, these sports exist in controlled settings of time/field and court dimensions/set heighth for hoops and field goal posts. Other than what the crowd does for the local team, the stadiums/areanas are neutral. And when the control is as variable as the baseball field, you have to adjust the stats. Hitting 40 in the 1980s was much harder than hitting 40 in the 30s. You have to adjust.

TRT: Over at RoyalBoard, there seems to be a growing rift between the "sabermetric" and "non-sabermetric" crowds, for lack of better terms. You obviously identify with the former group. You have managed to bridge the gaps - or communication barriers - between the two groups quite well. Question: Which elements of traditional, or conventional, baseball wisdom do you still embrace to this day?

MtRoyals: Let's talk about the growing rift a bit. The first question that comes to mind is: why does it matter to the point of ditching the sites/trashing on the people? Right now, I'm at my dad's and he's watching Fried Green Tomatoes with his wife. I watched Saw IV last night and Rocky Balboa the night before that. I like When Harry Met Sally and I like Swingers and I like Johnny Dangerously. Is it that bad to be different? To have different ideas? To make suggestions contrary to ideas held to be true? The things that we enjoy and the way we choose to enjoy them are a part of our individuality. If you say something "positive" that I think is more delusional than positive, I'm going to call you on it. If I say something "negative" that you think is more cynical than probable, I need to be called on it. When I write about baseball, I put my allegiances to the side because it is too often subjective.

As far as traditional and conventional baseball wisdom, I haven't turned my back on any of it other than the things that really don't matter. The Face: Alex Rodriguez is a fine looking guy and his personal life is in a state of disarray. It hasn't affected his baseball ability. Colt Griffin threw the ball crazy hard and he wasn't ever close to making it to Omaha, let alone Kansas City. Some things are just beyond reasonable thought. Asking a scout how good a player will be is asking a bit much. Yes, Alex Gordon was a phenomenal talent and did every thing right but there's at some point a difference between personality and ability. Did George Brett become a Hall of Famer because of his tenacious personality? Or because of his talent? It's because of both but mostly because of talent. And how do I know that? Because plenty of tenacious guys fall short. Plenty of jerks succeed. Plenty of good guys are nothing more than Ross Gload. Scouts are good at getting an idea of whether a player is a hard worker, commited to his craft and bettering himself, but people change. Trying to decide whether a player is capable of learning the strike zone, of doing this, doing that and whatever other imagining/daydreaming/hoping/praying/predicting a player can/will do is nothing short of a false assumption. There are too many individual personalities. Now statistics cannot predict that stuff and they're actually worse at predicting it than a person would be because a person can get to know a person, stats cannot. Stats can not predict Josh Hamilton picking up a habit, but obviously, neither could the scouts. But the stats were right about Josh Hamilton. The stats said that, if given opportunity, Josh Hamilton will beat the shit out of the ball. And he does. Neither method is perfected on its own but when it comes to predicting what a player will do, the stats are going to hit more on a player with good stats than a scout will hit on a player with lagging stats. How much leeway to give either side isn't an exact science because again, it's always down to the individual.

TRT: You have cited the book Moneyball as a primary influence to your baseball expertise today. Which theme of the Michael Lewis book ("biography" is probably too loose a term) do you readily embrace the most? Which elements of the book (if any) no longer apply in current baseball front office work?

MtRoyals: The theme that I most embrace isn't any one particular statistical idea, but more of a way to be economically sound. If you're buying a car and the most you can spend is 3500 dollars, you don't keep bidding when it's at 4200 dollars. It's not like you're looking through the crap bin at Wal-Mart. How many times have the Royals spent entirely too much on replaceable talent? What is it that Ross Gload really brings? TPJ was arguably a worse player than Angel Berroa. Scott Elarton? Mark Redman? Bringing in players that are slightly less talented but many multitudes cheaper creates opportunities to spend better money at other places. If you're commited to a player that's going to hit .285/.315/.375, why not get a minor leaguer and save a few million dollars? And not money to be put into the owner's pocket, but back into the team some way or another. Yes, let's celebrate spending 10 million on the draft, but let's also ask why people were questioning me for saying it should be doubled or tripled when we were spending 5.5-6.0 million on the draft. Ramirez and one of the catchers and Farnsworth equals Orlando Hudson, financially speaking. And we couldn't "make due" with Shealy/Brayan/reliever like Musser/Colon/Rosa? The Royals restrict themselves by being closed-minded about a lot of things. As far as people that are positive, positive, positive and questions the fandom of people that aren't of the mindset take things entirely too far. Yes, Dayton knows more than most of us (and I am in that group), but that doesn't mean that you can overlook something you disagree with. No, complaining about it isn't going to change it but as I've said many times, what fun would a blog/message board be if you just agree with things over and over again no matter what happens. I'm a surly bastard if you ask many posters, yet this surly bastard is guessing 83 wins. And I've been close in my past guessing.

TRT: You have mentioned on several occasions that you would like to become professionally involved with baseball in some way. What are your top three "dream jobs" with regard to working in a baseball-oriented profession?

MtRoyals: I wouldn't want to be the GM and I wouldn't want to be over many (or maybe any) people. I'd want my opinion to be considered and valued. I don't want it take as gospel but as another man's opinion. Assistant to GM

If I could get paid for Royally Speaking (and if my computer was working so I could actually post on there) or if it lead to a gig that didn't have to pay much but paid enough to have it as my primary source of income, that would be pretty ideal. I do a lot of writing outside of baseball and I'm confident that I could write any thing about any point of view. Baseball scribe

I'm a pretty big fan of analysts and I love being at the park. I would hope that if/when given proper training on what a team is looking for, that I'd be good enough at it to get paid. I love ballpark food. It would be great if I could be able to give the team what they needed/wanted without selling my own ideas of what really makes a successful ballplayer short. Baseball scout

TRT: You're a contributor over at the informative Royals blog Royally Speaking. What can this site offer that another blog cannot?

MtRoyals: That is kind of hard to say because there are so many good Royal blogs out there. What Royally Speaking brings to the huge collection of blogs is a chief writer who is upbeat and positive and a moderate on the stats/scouts issue and mixes that with someone who is a very good writer and does a lot of in-depth information on the prospects and adds a dash of MtRoyals, someone who was once described as, "Blogger and message boarder extraordinaire" and "The Great M.T." haha It's kinda hard for me to honestly say what I bring to Royally Speaking because of two reasons: one, I like to come off as modest (which is quite the task) and two, I really haven't been able to stretch my legs there as much as I would want due to some things in my personal life (roommate moved out and took a functioning computer). Jeff Parker knows that I don't pull any punches. I deal with a lot of "what if" scenarios that are meant to challenged the established view of Royal fans. I want to not only think outside and inside and all around the box, but I want to encourage people to do that as well. As long as I'm not accepting regurgitated crap that they've been saying about baseball and its teams over the many decades, I think I'm doing quite well. A cliche, I was once told, is a cliche because it is true. Not so. A cliche is a cliche because it's been repeated so many times that perception often makes it true.

TRT: You have responded on several occasions at perhaps the most fervently anti-"Mother's Basement" Royals blog, Hapless Royals. How can you bridge the gap between, say, a "Dr. Thunder" and a "Jobber", if it is possible?

MtRoyals: Hapless Royals is great fun, first and foremost. He doesn't see things that way I do and that's what I need out of my baseball entertainment. I want people to be real and to be able to back up what they say, and I'm like that in all walks of life, when they are trying to pass off something as fact. Dr. Thunder and I are night and day, but I've never really had a problem with him even though I've been under his skin.Jobber types things that lean towards sabermetrics, but I find myself disagreeing with a lot of the things he says. Mostly because I see it being very contradictory.As far as being able to bridge gaps, I'd first have to say to both that it should occur to them that the friction is personality, not fandom. To Dr. Thunder and his attitude, I'd have to ask why does he let differing opinions piss him off to such a huge degree. To Jobber, I'd say, yes, OBP goes a long ways towards what you're saying it does, but you treat it like an end all of statistics. The question isn't "when does it end", the question is "why should it end"? Do the message boards die when a team like the Royals win? Because as they slowly get better, more and more of the elated group are getting pissy about ANY dissent. I'd like to tell the elated group that fandom isn't just being happy about progress, just as I'd tell the gloom and doom weary group that fandom isn't just about fretting over every single move. I'm not a fan of the Mike Jacobs trade and I'm questioning the Coco Crisp trade, yet I see clearly what each deal gives the Royals. And at the same time, progress isn't enough for me. Securing a dynasty is what I selfishly want and I will not apologize for that. I have more to add here but I see another question that is more suiting for where my mind is going.

TRT: Joe Morgan. Tim McCarver. Murray Chass. Jon Heyman. What thoughts come to your mind?

MtRoyals: Closed-minded. What have they brought to the discussion of baseball themselves? Where is any evidence that they've thought about the game? Why have these men neglected their jobs to the point that it doesn't even occur to them that there MIGHT be a better way to analyze and report on the game than what their daddies told them in the 50s and 60s? I found something that I wrote someone and it pairs well with both this question and the question about Guillen and it also kind of goes with the question about conventional stats: But I've been at odds with the BBWAA (not that I know any of them or communicate with any of them) for quite some time. Well before I became aware of many of the stats that are available, I could never figure out why they were so intent on basing their voting on RBIs. I was talking about this with some people on a Royals message board in regards to Mike Sweeney. Years ago, when Sweeney was good (can anyone remember such a time?), Mike set a team record with 144 RBIs. WOW! But then next year, he wasn't as good *cough* and only had 99 RBIs. What the heck happened to Mike? Nothing really. He was as good or pretty close to it. When you look deeper into the numbers, you'll see that Mike only had 99 RBIs because the team OBP dropped from .348 to .318. It's kinda hard to knock people in when your teammates aren't doing their job. So it takes more numbers than the basic .290-25-100 to decide if a player has had a good season. I emailed that to someone about 18 months ago. And that's how these men and the people that say Guillen had a good season see the game. It is a team sport, of course it is a team sport. But unlike basketball and football, it's built upon nine guys mostly doing individual things collectively. It doesn't have the same level of cohesion that football has.

TRT: How would you rank G.M. Dayton Moore's job performance thus far in his tenure? What are his primary strengths and what are his primary weaknesses; in other words, what aspects of management does he need to improve upon?

MtRoyals: B- (I'm so negative!) His primary strength would be bull pen construction. This isn't the only one he has, of course, and had he not signed Cruz, his esteem in this regard would have gone down a bit. A strength would be drafting young pitchers in general and high school hitters in the first round. A strength would be front office hiring: Picollo, Francisco, Arbuckle, Medina. I'm not really a fan of Dean Taylor yet. A weakness would be draft strategy, which most of your readers will take as an insult. When he took over the team, many would have said he took over a farm system with the best top three prospects in the game. But they were all about to graduate (and all sent time in KC in '07). But he's only drafted and signed players that were at least four years away from Kansas City. You can't exactly call him a failure in drafting but he doesn't seem to alter his draft philosophy to fit the organizations immediate needs very well. He traded Dotel for a young player that had a lot of unsucessful time accured in the bigs when we needed a prospect that was almost ready and had zero time on his clock. He let Riske walk and took the draft picks when the players that will be ready in '09/'10 needed another teammate. He takes Moustakas/Hosmer (GREAT picks) instead of Wieters/Smoak (GREAT picks that will be ready much sooner than Moose/Hosmer). That's not to say that Moustakas/Hosmer are bad picks or will falter or that I don't like them being with the team. It's just that Wieters/Smoak would have better served the teams needs at the time of those respective drafts. Drafting should never be about high school versus collegians or about positional need. It should always be about the best player ... unless ... there are several "best players" and some of them will get to the bigs much, much sooner. The more you restrict your options when making a decision, the more often you're going to make the wrong decision. (Again, Dayton didn't fail by going the way he went.) Another weakness would be loyalty. Loyalty is great and I see myself as a very loyal person, but it is very possible to be loyal to a fault.

TRT: Which, if any, times have you been proven demonstrably false in the Royals blogosphere?

MtRoyals: People seem not to realize this about me, but I take so many shortcuts to allow myself to never be wrong. I can currently argue in favor of the Meche deal or against the Meche deal. I was against it and thus far (thus far being one of those key things you can use to get away with things), I have been wrong. However, all I have to do is slightly shift the argument/question and ask, "was the risk one that the Royals of that offseason should have taken" and you can continue arguing the position because there is no real, factual answer to that question. Yes, Meche has done quite well, but "what if he hadn't" was a very strong possibility. The Royals beat the odds, but they really can't afford to play those risks too often or they'll get Guillened, I mean, burnt.

TRT: Quick: Give a profile of yourself as a baseball player. Which MLB player - current or all-time - do you mirror the most? Or which player would you compare yourself to?

MtRoyals: I'll e-mail you my home address so you can laugh in my face: Ross Gload. I don't deserve to be on the diamond, but relative to my peers, I am Ross Gload. I get a decent hit here and there, rarely with any power (especially considering my position--first base), and I play pretty good defense. Actually, relative to peers, I'm a better defender than Gload since I'm the best in my leagues. Also, I take walks. I used to play on a co-ed team and there was this girl that wasn't very good when she started out but was doing her sister a favor. I would always tell her, "Be Hatteberg when you're up there." I never made her baffled look go away.

TRT: "Sabermetric junkies cling ruthlessly to 'made up' statistics' and are nothing but Mother's Basement types." How would you respond to this statement?

MtRoyals: First, musclehead, high school is well over. Second, my mother is dead and I don't get along with my step-mother too well sometimes. Third, what is a made up stat exactly? Fourth, who is Harry Chadwick (without looking it up)? Fifth, which player/executive/manager came up with the "non-made up statistics"? The only real made up statistics are the ones that don't get reported on. If you come up with some kind of metric that says that Tony Pena was the best hitter in Royal Blue last year, that one is made up. If you come up with a metric that says Dom DiMaggio was the best DiMaggio the game has ever seen, that one is made up. The thing is that these so-called made up statistics are tested again and again to discover and faulty material. It's not that I necessarily blame the "muscleheads", most of which are PROBABLY as visually unappealing as us Mother Basement types, because when you take something that we love and make it confusing and over our heads, we as people tend to get defensive. If you tried to explain a moment of history, which I love, to me and used a let statement from a geometry textbook, I'd probably get a bit bent out of shape too. But, for me, it still goes back to my obsession for baseball. I have always loved the numbers of the game, though I don't really like complex math, and when I first started reading about stats more advanced than the typical 99 year old stats, I was excited to learn more about the game I obsess over.

As I once read, why do people get so bent out of shape about VORP, but QB-rating seems to be perfectably acceptable? It's no crazier than some of the baseball stats that get railed on. How about saves? How did they become acceptable? They have only been counted since 1969. How about IBB? And if you don't want new stats because they change the perception of the game, what about the changes to the game itself? Shouldn't those against the new stats be against the DH, the 60'6 distance to the mound, the batting helmets, the rise and fall of the mound, the AstroTurf?

As long as you're not bending the numbers to come up with something fallacious, it should be encouraged to explore many new ways to state how good a player is. Going just by HR means Barry was without a question better than the Babe. That Rickey was better than Cobb. You need more than the crude numbers that is BA/HR/RBI/SB The year Rickey stole 130, he was tossed 42 times. That's only a 75% success rate. Was it really worth going for it that many times?

And for the record, http://www.firejoemorgan.com was HILARIOUS!

-------------------------------------------------------------

As a side note, 'Mt' and I have held quite a few exchanges over on RoyalBoard. For instance, we debated fervently about the signing of Jose Guillen, at the time. In essence, I supported the decision, while 'Mt' did not. I was wrong. 'Mt' would deem himself one of the more pessimistic (and certainly bold and uncompromising) posters of RoyalBoard. Several similar posters throughout Royals Blogosphere exist, I think. (NYRoyal from Royals Review comes to mind). Nonetheless, thanks to 'The Great Mt' for agreeing to discuss baseball among other things with The Royal Treatment.

Late Spring Training Odds 'N' Ends

2009-03-31T18:57:00.002-05:00

My apologies about not churning out posts on a more routine basis, especially after this blog officially became my Internet "full time job." Nonetheless, I might churn out several posts at once this evening. Attached are some odds and ends...some recent news surrounding our beloved K.C. Royals, and some brief analysis from yours truly.

- Luke Hochevar has been optioned to AAA. At first glance, this move upset me, especially because I assumed Royals management would proceed with a 5-man rotation, possibly opening the season with Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez in the rotation. While that is certainly a (moronic) propensity, I can understand this move taken out of context. Granting Hochevar more time in AAA could help his development - remember, he had yet to master the AAA level in a meaningful sample size. Also, Hoch's Free Agency clock could be delayed another year. He has accrued 1.019 years of MLB service time, and if the Royals do not recall him before May 19, he will be Free Agent eligible after 2014 (instead of '13), giving the Royals the vast majority of his prime (or through his age 30 season). As I wrote on RoyalBoard, the fact that Ponson and HoRam are still legitimate possibilities for the rotation is a damning indictment of our front office's ability to evaluate talent - even starting pitching talent, which has evidently been one of Dayton Moore's strenghts as a General Manager.

- That said, there are certainly better pitching options available. Here is a list of pitchers who have been non-tendered by their respective clubs late in Spring Training camp. (Hat-tip to RoyalsRetro at Royals Corner). Some intriguing names are Ryan Rowland Smith (Mariners / mentioned in Shealy trade rumors by Schaum early in the month), Chad Gaudin (fell out of favor for a Cubs rotation slot this month), and moderately effective but low-K guy Kyle Kendrick (the butt of a Phillies preseason 2008 prank).

- In Minor League news, final roster cuts and official rosters for each of the full-season affiliates have yet to be finalized, but when they are, expect them to be posted on The Royal Treatment. I know former Idaho Falls Chukar Devery Van De Keere - a good friend of my "boss" Greg Schaum of 610 Sports - has been cut. Certainly more are to come.

- In further news, Rule 5 (V?) selection Gilbert De La Vara, a soft tossing lefty who pitched last season in Northwest Arkansas, has been returned to the Royals by the Houston Astros. I understand Spring Training statistics are essentially meaningless except for determining playing time among equal opportunity candidates, but scouting reports certainly aren't in small sample sizes, I think. De La Vara looked utterly hittable when I watched him pitch against the Florida Marlins (hat-tip, MLB Network).

- The Tigers have released Gary Sheffield, eating the $14MM they owed to him in '09. I understand the DH/1B logjam is....well, a logjam, but I wonder if picking him up for several months in hopes of trading him, by letting him pinch hit, get spot starts at designated hitter, and letting him spot-start in right field, wouldn't be a terrible idea. Keep in mind that I believe Butler should be granted an everyday opportunity at the big-league level, but at $400K, why not?

- According to Baseball America, the Royals have signed Korean catcher Jin-Ho Shin. The Mariners also signed a Korean catching prospect. Here is a humorous interpretation of the event that I posted over at Royals Review:

The M’s signee:

Choi Ji-man: Proficient at playing Diamond Mind Baseball (three time online league champion), lived in Mother’s Basement for 14 years, recurring acne problem, hates bunting and Joe Morgan, wears glasses, loves math, never before played a sport

Projected upside: .230/.420/.580, +20 defender at first base, slow as molasses, strikes out a TON

And now the Royals signee…

Shin Jin-ho: Professional bodybuilder, Christian, and excellent clubhouse character. Never used a computer. Excellent bunter and excellent speed. Approximately 150 misdemeanors, all against Mother’s Basement types. Excellent track record.

Projected upside: .290/.310/.320, -5 defender at shortstop but has good hands, excellent range, and good glove, potential RBI-guy, knows how to make things happen, productive out-guy, clutch hitter, EXCELLENT bunter, can proficiently pin Alex Gordon against a wall and motivate him to hit .350.

Royals Corner poster mloe68 had an extended conversation with Dayton Moore at Spring Training camp, recently. He posts a synopsis over at Royals Corner. Several tidbits: it appears Pena and Gload are both making this roster, Horacio Ramirez isn't necessarily making this rotation simply because he is a lefty, and David Glass is grossly misinterpreted throughout Kansas City (and, evidently, throughout MLB). I wonder if Dayton Moore still proudly doesn't know what VORP is.

The Royals will be guaranteed a winning record for Spring Training 2009 if they can win one more game. They currently stand at 16-12, good for seventh place in the Cactus League.

Coming soon.....'RAW'.....part troix.

Poll Results, Week 2: "The Brain" = Odd Man Out

2009-03-25T18:30:00.003-05:00

Here are the poll results for Week 2 of the feature on the full-time version of this blog:

Who will be the odd man out in the starting rotation?

Brian ("The Brain") Bannister: 8 (47%)
("Cool Hand") Luke Hochevar: 2 (11%)
Horacio ("HoRam") Ramirez: 7 (41%)
Other: 0 (0%)

The club has made it increasingly apparent that Sidney Ponson is a viable candidate for one of the two final open spots. Luke Hochevar appears a near-lock to make the club. However, the club may start him in AAA, considering his relative injury history and the fact that arbitration could be delayed by yet another year. Horacio Ramirez appears to have effectively pitched his way out of the rotation with a (predictably) putrid Spring, but with this rigidly dogmatic at times front office, who really knows?

I still feel the rotation needs to consist of the following:

Meche
Greinke
Davies
Hochevar
Bannister

The five pitchers with (by far) the most upside of any candidate. Bannister has gotten lit up this spring, so I might read arguments for either Ponson or HoRam to occupy his slot (while he begins the year in Omaha - he is not out of options, you know). However, it will appear especially frustrating to see a) Trey Hillman slowly realize what 90% of the rational blogosphere already knows - that Ponson and HoRam are both terrible options as starting pitcher, and b) a damnation that certain dogma (lefties MUST be in the starting rotation!!!11) still permeate this front office.

We'll see. I hope the right decision is made.

My 2009 Fantasy Baseball Team: The Westport Stingers

2009-03-24T23:44:00.005-05:00

2009 marks Year III of the Royals Nation Fantasy Baseball Keeper League over at ESPN.com. Keep in mind that the league recently expanded by 4 teams. It is a head-to-head league that now contains 4 divisions - each named after Royals Hall of Fame members - and 20 teams, overall. Therefore, it is a rather deep league, leaving much less room for error. Not to brag, since I created it, but I think it is the quintessential ultra-competitive baseball league. Being a devoted Royals (and baseball) fan, I like it that way, of course.

We operate using 17 categories, or statistics. We use an odd number of categories to prevent ties in weekly matchups.

9 hitting categories: H, R, HR, TB, RBI, BB, SB, AVG, OPS

8 pitching categories: BB, K, W, L, SV, HD, ERA, WHIP

Below is my team, as well as CHONE projections for the 2009 season, using my categories. I realize CHONE is only one projection systems, but I'm not going to devote the time to average the four (or five, or six, or more) systems together.

Nonetheless, I hope you enjoy!

Starting Lineup:

POS PLAYER H/AB R HR RBI TB BB SB AVG OPS
C - Jorge Posada 115/433 67 16 67 188 62 1 .266 .797
1B - Mike Jacobs 124/479 60 23 60 227 36 2 .259 .787
2B - Kelly Johnson 477/134 80 14 62 215 65 9 .281 .822
SS - Troy Tulowitzki 491/140 80 15 69 221 52 7 .285 .808
3B - Ryan Zimmerman 514/152 78 19 78 251 53 6 .296 .852
OF - Matt Kemp 498/149 84 16 84 237 39 26 .299 .829
OF - Justin Upton 435/112 69 16 69 193 57 8 .257 .793
OF - Carlos Beltran 545/148 101 27 101 265 79 17 .272 .852
UT - Milton Bradley 392/117 71 21 66 204 67 7 .298 .927

Bench:

POS PLAYER H/AB R HR RBI TB BB SB AVG OPS
OF - Jay Bruce 493/136 78 27 77 251 40 10 .276 .843
OF/DH - Luke Scott 455/116 63 21 69 210 57 3 .255 .805
3B - Eric Chavez 473/117 67 19 67 204 58 3 .247 .758
1B - Gaby Sanchez 449/120 67 12 68 190 52 10 .267 .770
OF - Ryan Church 395/102 54 14 54 169 46 4 .258 .770

Starting Rotation:

POS PITCHER IP H ER BB K W L SV HD ERA WHIP
SP - Tim Lincecum 154.0 130 60 175 10 7 0 0 3.21 1.23
SP - Adam Wainwright 124.0 123 52 36 85 8 6 0 0 3.77 1.28
SP - Edinson Volquez 166.0 138 78 170 11 8 0 0 3.58 1.30
SP - Erik Bedard 126.0 108 48 128 8 6 0 0 3.36 1.24
SP - Manny Parra 124.0 125 58 53 105 7 7 0 0 4.21 1.44

Bullpen:

POS PITCHER IP H ER BB K W L SV HD ERA WHIP
RP - Mariano Rivera 63.0 56 20 11 60 - - 2.86 1.06
RP - Rafael Perez 79.0 70 28 24 80 - - 3.19 1.19
RP - Manny Delcarmen 75.0 67 28 28 70 - - 3.36 1.27

Bench:

POS PITCHER IP H ER BB K W L SV HD ERA WHIP
SP - Scott Olsen 176.0 197 97 65 116 0 0 4.96 1.49
SP/RP - Robinson Tejeda 57.0 53 25 29 56 - - 3.95 1.44
RP - Ramon Ramirez 64.0 58 25 27 61 5 3 - - 3.52 1.33

Keep in mind that neither saves nor holds are included in the CHONE projections. I assume that each of the starters won't accumulate either, since they're all pegged at starting almost every single game they play.

Any thoughts? I think I have a nice combination of power and speed in my starting lineup, with Jacobs carrying the former, Kemp providing the latter, and Beltran providing both. I have batting average (Youkilis), OPS (Bradley), walks (both), and good production up the middle, as I hope Tulo can rebound from an injury-plagued '08 and Johnson can continue to provide a little bit of every category.

As for my pitching, I traded both Scott Baker and Chris Carpenter away. Baker was one of my 9 keepers, and I selected Carpenter in the first few rounds of the draft. I traded with Gordon Will Rule The A.L., a divisional rival whom I feel will contend again in '08. Here were the trades.

Scott Baker and Ronnie Belliard to Gordon Will Rule The A.L.
Kevin Youkilis and Rafael Perez to Westport Stingers (me)

Chris Carpenter to Gordon Will Rule The A.L.
Mariano Rivera to Westport Stingers (me)

I'm sure several TRT readers (and several RN members, as well) are reading this post, as I speak. I'm always seeking an upgrade, gentlemen (and lady). So, shoot me an offer if you so choose.

Pitching-wise, I have K/9 (Lincecum and Volquez) and a strong bullpen, with one closer and several competent to very good setup men. Tejeda gives me added emergency value on both sides, but even I'll admit he's a gut-based selection. Scouts rave about his potential, so I took the necessary advantage. The ERA for 4 of my 5 starters projects well into the 3's, and the WHIP could use a bit of improvement. I'm banking on Parra to really step through for Milwaukee and their somewhat depleted rotation this year. We'll see.

Any thoughts?

Likely 25 Man Roster Candidates & Projection Averages

2009-03-24T20:44:00.004-05:00

Below is a compilation - or average - of four projection systems for our beloved Kansas City Royals in 2009. Later, I might use advanced statistics such as wOBP or FIP. I want to link this project, which I worked on earlier today. Hope you enjoy. Contrast these with my projections, which I compiled months ago.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS - Probable 25-Man Roster Candidates
2009 Projection Averages
Using CHONE, ZiPS, Marcel, and Bill James

In my opinion, and in the opinions of bloggers I read from daily over at Royals Review, CHONE is probably the most accurate. Bill James, for whatever reason, is usually the most optimistic of the four. Marcel is the most pitcher-friendly, from what I have seen.

- Regarding the "percentages", I did the process scientifically. For example, I added up the average at-bat total and divided by 4....I didn't simply add the average total and then divide by 4.

Not all projections use games total, and none use 'games started' total. So that has been negated. Because sacrifice flies (necessary for the OBP calculation) were not given for several of these, I decided to simply take the averages of on-base percentage and slugging percentage directly. In other words, I simply added up the four percentages and divided by 4.

- Players with no options remaining - Brayan Pena, Ryan Shealy, and Shane Costa, have not been included. These players have little or no chance of making the roster, in my opinion. Tony Pena, on the other hands, stands a realistic chance, as he remained on the roster last year.

POS PLAYER AB H HR RBI SB/CS AVG OBP SLG
C Miguel Olivo 401 99 14 54 6/3 .247 .277 .418
C John Buck 368 86 13 49 1/2 .234 .308 .398
1B Mike Jacobs 468 123 24 79 2/1 .263 .318 .490
1B Billy Butler 520 151 15 78 1/1 .290 .351 .443
1B Ross Gload 291 82 5 36 3/2 .282 .328 .403
2B Alberto Callaspo 342 96 3 34 4/3 .281 .337 .377
2B Willie Bloom... 234 63 2 19 12/4 .269 .337 .332
SS Mike Aviles 532 154 12 66 9/4 .289 .327 .441
SS Tony Pena 325 78 3 27 5/3 .240 .267 .323
3B Alex Gordon 507 134 17 65 11/3 .266 .348 .445
LF David DeJesus 515 146 10 60 8/5 .283 .357 .417
CF Coco Crisp 452 122 8 49 20/7 .270 .332 .391
CF Mitch Maier 361 99 7 42 7/3 .274 .320 .399
RF Jose Guillen 536 144 19 84 3/1 .269 .319 .437
RF Mark Teahen 523 142 13 63 8/3 .272 .340 .427

*For ERA, the earned runs total wasn't available for the Bill James projection system. Therefore, I decided to add the ERA totals and then divide them by 4 to get the average ERA. Also, for ERA, the ZiPS projections gave partial innings (example: 194 1/3 IP) for pitchers. I simply added the IP totals and then divided by 4, and rounded to the nearest 1/3 inning.

*I omitted saves, as it was only available on the James and Marcel projection systems.

^Also, note that John Bale's projection does *not* include the Bill James projections. I looked on the Internet and tried to find the James projection for Bale, but could not find it. It's in the handbook, I know, but I would have to order it.

*Sidney Ponson has not been included, as he isn't on the 40-man roster.

POS PLAYER W L IP ERA BB K
SP Gil Meche 11 11 194.1 4.13 69 154
SP Zack Greinke 10 9 165.0 4.01 48 140
SP Kyle Davies 7 11 133.2 5.15 59 90
SP Luke Hochevar 6 9 131.2 5.00 48 83
SP Brian Bannister 8 11 159.1 4.80 51 95
^RP John Bale 2 3 42.1 4.33 14 31
RP Horacio Ramirez3 4 59 4.83 21 28
RP Doug Waechter 3 3 55 5.09 18 33
RP Joel Peralta 3 3 63 4.44 18 48
RP Robinson Tejeda4 5 72 4.62 40 59
RP Kyle Farnsworth 3 3 59 4.60 25 55
RP Ron Mahay 3 3 61.2 4.17 30 49
RP Juan Cruz 4 3 63 3.51 32 74
CP Joakim Soria 4 2 63.1 2.57 18 64

- The projections for certain players, like Juan Cruz or Willie Bloomquist, might be slightly different if every projection system projected these players as *Royals* rather than their old teams.

The All Pre-Arbitration Position Player Team: A Competitive Squad?

2009-03-20T23:17:00.009-05:00

Note: I just realized that many loyal TRT readers probably still aren't familiar with statistics such as R150 and wOBA. I hope to create a glossary that readers of the blog can reference when reading my scribblings. ~RN

*Edit* I WILL expand upon this post at a later time, analyzing the bench players and then posting Major League equivalencies with regard to defensive statistics. Hat tip to devil_fingers at Royals Review for posting the following:

Pena might be a decent hitter, but he gives a lot away on defense, according to what I hear
Shealy = Jacobs
Callspo is better than Tug, they are both better than Bloomquist
Aviles is the best SS, obviously
GOrdon is better than whomever
Lubanski is by all accounts horrible at this point
MITCH isn’t close to DDJ or Crisp, but even average defense in CF makes him probably more valuable (straight up) than Guillen.
Same for Costa.
I think the “real” roster is better, but not that much better.

Last week, while we were eating at a subpar Chinese cuisine restaurant in Arizona, I posed a conundrum of a question to my father and uncle. If the Royals employed only pre-arbitration eligible players at each offensive/defensive position, and implemented their current starting rotation and bullpen, what would their final record for 2009 look like? Assume all of those players remain healthy over a course of an entire season. Needless to say, they immediately dismissed the idea that such a hypothetical roster would ever result in a team as competent as I predicted. In fact, both predicted that roster would finish with 50-55 wins, or so. I also posed this question to two prominent local media figures last night, and they essentially responded that we would finish no better than a 100-loss team.

My question to the readers of this blog. How would a roster consisting of the following players impact a team's won-loss record over the course of an entire season? Just for your information, CHONE projected the current (real) Royals roster to finish with 71 wins, and PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus projection, projected a 76-86 finish for the regular season. Although I don't exactly interpret projection systems as gospel, these two seem to be the most realistic options.

Below is the pre-arbitration-eligible roster.

Starting Lineup

C - Brayan Pena
1B - Ryan Shealy
2B - Alberto Callaspo
SS - Mike Aviles
3B - Alex Gordon
LF - Chris Lubanski
CF - Mitch Maier
RF - Shane Costa
DH - Billy Butler

Bench:

C - J.R. House
1B/DH - Kila Ka'aihue
2B - Tug Hulett
UT - Tommy Murphy

Now, here is each player's CHONE projection (hat-tip, Baseball Projection). I've compared such projections for each minimum-maker to that of a millionaire. It's important to assume that such projection systems peg each player with limited playing time. It's highly important that Trey Hillman implement the starters to their full value by giving them more playing time. Hypothetically, because each offensive player does not represent an "everyday" player, they would have to maintain such performance over the course of far more plate appearances (and, thereby, games played).

Catching Starters:

Brayan Pena (C): .284/.335/.402, .326 wOBA, -6 R150 (Out of options, unlikely to make MLB roster)

Miguel Olivo (C): .243/.271/.406, .294 wOBA, -26 R150 (Named MLB starter)

Winner: Brayan Pena trumps Olivo.

TRT Analysis: Brayan Pena is actually out of MLB options, so if he isn't to make the final cut for the 25-man roster, he will have to be placed on waivers, where he would have to clear waivers, and then accept an assignment to AAA Omaha. Such a scenario - him clearing waivers - is highly unlikely to happen, considering his Minor League history. In my opinion, the organization would be passing up a potential beneficial long-term opportunity in Brayan Pena - an opportunity with slight defensive deficiencies but an obviously better offensive candidate for the catching position - for two mediocre at best catching opportunities in Olivo and Buck. Also, Olivo and Buck are costing the Royals nearly $5 million for this year, while a House/Pena tandem will cost dollars over $800,000, the MLB league minimum.

John Buck (C): .233/.307/.396, .311 wOBA, -14 R150 (Likely MLB backup /

J.R. House (C): .275/.339/.422, .336 wOBA, -1 R150 (Already optioned to Minors)

Winner: J.R. House clearly emerges victorious here.

TRT Analysis: The R150s, though negative, are substantially different. Defense is more difficult to quantify, but it's clearly been House's weakness over the course of his lengthy Minor League and short Major League career. That said, a platoon with Pena might boost House's offensive numbers to negate the difference yet further. We're discussing a value here that could eclipse Buck's, if given an opportunity. Let House work 50 games and 200 plate appearances behind the plate this season, platooning with Pena. Sadly, House has already been optioned to AAA Omaha in Spring Training camp. Buck and Olivo are both locks to make the roster, barring an injury or trade. (DFA'ing them now would be silly, as the March 19 deadline for cutting arbitration candidates has passed).

Ryan Shealy (1B): .251/.326/.422, .330 wOBA, -3 R150

Mike Jacobs (1B): .259/.313/.474, .340 wOBA, 2 R150

Winner: Arguable either way. Jacobs clearly emerges victorious *if* he receives substantial playing time at designated hitter in '09.

TRT Analysis: Because Jacobs' work at first base is so historically bad, defense is a vital topic, here. Jacobs had a RZR of -10 last year, and has not posted a positive WAR since 2006. On the contrary, Shealy hasn't proven anything substantial at the big-league level, other than he can perform competently in a meaningful sample size and can perform flukishly well in extremely limited Major League action. Shealy's career average RZR is 7, 6 points higher than Jacobs' career average in this metric. Consider the value differences - Jacobs is making $3.275 million, while Shealy will make $400,000 plus optional "bonuses." Keep in mind that it is possible - in fact, even likely - that Jacobs receives significant playing time at designated hitter this season. If Butler accumulates much playing time at first base, the RZR for KC/'09 in that position won't be much better (at best), but it will help Jacobs' value tremendously. In fact, he could easily post a 2 or greater WAR if he gets - say - 100 or more games sitting on the bench most of the game.

Alberto Callaspo (2B): .284/.344/.387, .326 wOBA, -6 R150

TRT Analysis: I still believe Callaspo, ultimately, emerges victorious as starting second baseman. It's worthy, considering the salaries and upsides. I realize we're in "Win Now" mode, but just consider Willie Bloomquist's comparisons. There is some additional value in Bloomquist in that he can play a multitude of positions, but the value added likely overrules his versatility significantly. Callaspo posted a WAR of 1.1 and a RAR of 11 last season - he's 26 and on his way up. There's an upside here. Callaspo should start at least 110 games this season, assuming Bloomquist is his only rational competition. (I wrote in the Spring Training analysis that there is no way a defensive-minded organization like Kansas City would grant Teahen substantial playing time at second base, as he has looked putrid there, defensively, this month).

Willie Bloomquist: .264/.333/.331, .307 wOBA, -16 R150

TRT Analysis: See above. Bloomquist's skill set would be best implemented by starting him in games where ground-ball specialist in the making (hopefully) Hochevar is pitching. Also, we might want to start him when Bannister is pitching, although Banny is more fly-ball oriented (career 40.7 FB% versus a 37.5 career GB%).

Mike Aviles (SS): .280/.317/.425, .324 wOBA, -8 R150

TRT Analysis: Aviles, obviously, will make $400K plus (minor) additional cash this season, and he's the clear starter. There's no reason in delving much deeper, verbally. He'll accumulate 550 PA's, if healthy, with Willie Bloomquist and (hopefully, NOT) Tony Pena receiving occasional sport-start duty. And even that will be highly occasional. Aviles turns 28 this season and has no significant history with regard to injuries. On the contrary, TPJ of the -2 WAR in 2008 should not make this roster, even as a backup. How scary would the AAA Omaha roster look with both Pena, Jr. and Luis Hernandez in the same lineup? For the record, I've provided Pena's numbers below. He's a +15 or so player, defensively. (Meaning he saves 15 runs or so, a season, at least according to my BA Handbook from 2008).

Tony Pena (SS): .242/.270/.329, .266 wOBA, -40 R150

Alex Gordon (3B): .265/.349/.440, .350 wOBA, 5 R150

TRT Analysis: Well, although he's experienced back problems especially recently, Gordon has no substantial injury history, and he'll likely accumulate 140-145 games and 550 plate appearances at third base, this year. Other than Mark Teahen stepping in on an interim basis, the Future of the Franchise has zero competition in this area. I'd like to see him batting third this season, and anywhere from 3-5 for the remainder of his prime (2010 and forward). (And where's that long-term contract?)

Chris Lubanski (LF): .239/.303/.388, .305 wOBA, -20 R150

David DeJesus (LF): .279/.354/.406, .339 wOBA, 0 R150

TRT Analysis: Lubanski has trimmed down this offseason, losing approximately twenty pounds. According to manager Trey Hillman, he looks quicker in the field in camp and looks more athletic, overall. DeJesus still outweighs Lubanski both offensively and defensively, for 2009 and for the forseeable future. I previously noted that Lubanski's best case scenario, at this point, is still that of a Russell Brayan. A platoon hitter with some isolated power and decent plate discipline, who can play both corner outfield positions competetently. Lubanski, of course, can't play infield and has a bit quicker fleet-footedness in upside.

Mitch Maier (CF): .268/.313/.393, .311 wOBA, 15 R150

Coco Crisp (CF): .271/.334/.398, .328 wOBA, -7 R150

TRT Analysis: Crisp clearly emerges victorious, although if he posts RAR of 4 or 8, as he did in '06 or '08, respectively, much more competition would, hypothetically, exist. Consider that Crisp will make $5.75MM, this year, and has averaged a WAR of 1.8 the last three years. Consider that Maier will (obviously) make roughly 1/12th Crisp' salary, to post a wOBA 17 points less. 17 points is a significant number, don't get me wrong, but it's not as if there is a night and day difference between the two. Crisp is a legitimate everyday center fielder, whereas Maier's upside is likely no better than a placeholding starter on a mediocre or rebuilding baseball team, and a fourth outfielder on a competitive baseball team. Maier is regarded as the best defensive center fielder other than Crisp, whereas Crisp posted a +32 defensive runs saved in 2007, which was near Andruw Jones-in-his-primean levels.

Jose Guillen (RF): .265/.317/.428, .327 wOBA, -3 R150

Shane Costa (RF): .279/.333/.420, .332 wOBA, -3 R150

TRT Analysis: Costa is projected to be the better player! How about that? I thought his '08 season was an unquestionable success considering he hit 20 home runs and drove in 97 runs. Total zone isn't kind to Guillen, typically, as he posted a -11 in 2007 and 2 in 2008. If he could return to his 2007 level of production (2.5 WAR) then he would be less of a liability, but as it stands, he possesses an above average arm but well below average range and glove in right field. How is Shane Costa, defensively? Unfortunately, he hasn't accumulated enough big-league playing time to really gauge his strengths and weaknesses at this level. However, total zone is friendly to him (6 and 5 in '06 and '07, respectively) in extreeeeemmely limited time. Well...let's just say that the fact that Guillen will get paid a dozen - or perhaps two-dozen, if Costa clears waivers and accepts an assignment to AAA Omaha in his seventh year in the organization, and playing almost exclusively in the Minors for the last four seasons, after he made his MLB debut - more dollars than Costa...well, you get the idea. The offensive production is a toss-up, and the defensive production actually gives Costa (probably, maybe) a slight advantage. Unbelievable...but I'm selecting Costa over Guillen in this regard, especially with regard to value added.

Billy Butler (DH): .289/.356/.444, .353 wOBA, 9 R150

TRT Analysis: Butler's value will likely be hurt if he accumulates significant time at first base this season, but consider his mobility will likely only decrease after age 25 or so (especially given his moderate old-player skills). The Royals would serve themselves best determining whether Butler can play first base sooner rather than later. Butler should have received more P.T. at the (other) hot corner in 2007 and 2008, but that's water under the bridge.

Conclusion: I understand teams want to increase their payroll, and I have long stated that MLB payroll is an area David Glass and the Royals needed to vastly improve upon as we move toward a more competent administration in Dayton Moore & Company. However, Moore clearly needs to further understand the concept of what constitutes replacement value. Also, he needs to do a better job in distributing Glass' precious payroll, by handing only significant cash to the true superstars, or players with legitimate upside. Guillen, for example, probably has more offensive upside than Shane Costa, overall, even in 2007 - however, the fact that Guillen will make $12MM and Costa might very well not be a Royal on April 5 - is still rather damning. I've stated this before, but it's important that, in a small to mid market like Kansas City, we spend money only where appropriate. I'm not slamming the Jacobs and Crisp trades - I see the rationale behind both - however, there is a legitimate chance a team of primarily pre-arbitration players actually outperforms our current squad. That is the point I was trying to conclude with this rather long-winded blog post.

J.R. House. Brayan Pena. Shane Costa. Ryan Shealy. These are names that, under even the best circumstances, will not overwhelm offensively (or even defensively). However, these players deserve consistent opportunity in this market, and deserved opportunities in the past, especially over players like Ross Gload and Reggie Sanders.

My father and cousin said that 100-plus losses was a likely scenario, with this roster. I say that 70-plus wins is actually extremely likely. (Of course, pitching is significant in determining a team, as well, so the Meche-Greinke-Davies-Soria et al, et al, et al lineups will help this hypothetical position player element of the roster substantially). However, didn't CHONE project 71 wins for the current (actual) Royals roster? Isn't there a good chance this roster of young studs (Butler, Gordon) and relative no-names (B. Pena, Shealy) actually guides the team to a more respectable record? I say "yes."

Poll Results - Zack Greinke Reigns Supreme

2009-03-18T20:34:00.006-05:00

The first weekly TRT Poll revealed a fairly self-explanatory result. The Zack Greinke contract^TM extension was clearly the highlight of the offseason. The hiring of ex-Philadelphia Phillies executive Mike Arbuckle - who has worked with the organization since 1992 and is credited as an instrumental force in the Phightin' Phils' recent World Series championship - finished a rather distant second. Arbuckle serves now as Senior Advisor to the General Manager and Head of Scouting and Player Development. 'Other' (whatever that means) and Moore's numerous Minor League depth acquisitions pull up the rear.

Because the implications of the question were so subjective, we likely won't know the true 'answer' until many years from now, unless others eliminate themselves by default. (In essence, if Greinke suffers a career-ending injury, none of Moore's Minor League moves this offseason pan out, and 'Other', well....you catch my drift. By the way, will the voter for 'Other' care to explain his or her casting?)

As a celebratory gesture, let's unravel Greinke's contract, per Cot's Baseball Contracts (linked above).

Zack Greinke rhp
4 years/$38M (2009-12)

2009: $3.75MM
2010: $7.25MM
2011: $13.5MM
2012: $13.5MM
[signed extension with Kansas City 1/26/09 (avoided arbitration, $4.4M-$3.4M)]
[Limited no-trade protection in 2009, 2010]

Kansas City celebrated the move. Virtually every blog reported. The message boards went berzerk. Thank you, David Glass.

Gordon? Butler? You're next.

25-Man Roster Breakdown: The Catchers

2009-03-18T19:41:00.004-05:00

I'm making a concerted effort to compensate for lost time, as The Royal Treatment went approximately 100 hours without revealing a new post. I will compensate by churning out several posts within the next couple days, including the last post and this one. Not too long ago at Royals Nation, I predicted the final Royals 25-man roster, and then submitted my own 25-man roster (or what the roster should look like if Jack Dempsey were in Moore's helm).

I'll break down the positions by organizational depth charts. As a blogger-extraordinaire, I'll fantasize about actually holding the authority of General Manager and making these decisions. I'm an armchair G.M. at heart, ladies and gents. I won't describe the probable Moore selections, but will describe my own choices in limited detail. I might delve further into this subject in a future post.

Here is the Opening Day roster as I see it for 2009. Unfortunately, the "usual suspects" remain. Olivo and Gload are back. At least Pena's gone. To counter with some positivity, though, the defense looks better. And the front of the rotation and back end of the bullpen look awfully solid, don't they? And Trey Hillman has established that Joakim Soria's role will be somewhat expanded in '09.

Catcher: Miguel Olivo-starter, John Buck-backup
First Base: Mike Jacobs-starter, Ross Gload-backup
Second Base: Alberto Callaspo-3/5 starter, Willie Bloomquist-2/5 starter
Third Base: Alex Gordon-starter, Willie Bloomquist-backup
Shortstop: Mike Aviles-starter, Willie Bloomquist-backup
Left Field: David DeJesus-starter, Mark Teahen-backup, Ross Gload-backup
Center Field: Coco Crisp-starter
Right Field: Jose Guillen-starter, Mark Teahen-backup, Ross Gload-backup
Designated Hitter: Billy Butler-starter
Starting Rotation: 1. Meche, 2. Greinke, 3. Davies, 4. Ramirez, 5. Bannister
Bullpen: CL - Soria, SU1 - Cruz, SU2 - Mahay, MR1 - Farnsworth, MR2 - Tejeda, MR3 - Peralta, MR-4 - Waechter

Here is my proposed 25-man roster. Note that certain players (notably backups) have been repeated. I understand that Teahen can also play first, third, and possibly second base. However, for all intents and purposes, I included backups in positions where they might receive, say, 100 innings or more of playing time (barring extended injury). Notice that I have pegged Billy Butler as my starting first baseman against right-handers, and starting designated hitter against lefties. This enables a) Butler to play every day, b) the minimization of Jacobs' defensive woes, and c) an opportunity for Ryan Shealy to give us a plus-bat and plus-defense against his greatest offensive strength: left-handed opposing pitchers. Although Shealy would accumulate less than 200 PA's likely, total (in this hypothetical scenario), the difference is more than worth it. Gload's defense and ability to play two corner outfield positions in mediocre fashion is overstated. Shealy provided a TZ* of -1 in 188 PA's in '09. Gload? A -9 in an entirely too high 414 PA's at three different positions. Cut Gload. Also, implement Bloomquist as your starting second baseman, but only behind hopeful groundball specialist-in-the-making Luke Hochevar and probable "defensive specialist" Brian Bannister (let's hope he rebounds from 2008, where nine Craig Nettles' couldn't have prevented a Banny implosion). Limit Bloomquist's exposure by monitoring the Banny situation closely. If Bannister rebounds to 2007 levels or begins posting the Greg Schaum/Craig Brown-predicted 2007-8 'mixture' levels, then give 'Bert' the green light on those days. Use Callaspo and his upside of league-average defense as the primary second baseman, otherwise. Gordon is the starting third baseman. Aviles is the starting shortstop. Bloomquist essentially backs up several positions, with middle infield being his primary exposure. Mark Teahen platoons with Jose Guillen in right field (Yes, dejesus9, you've finally won me over). DeJesus, Crisp, and Butler, and voila, there is your offensive roster.
(Total Zone - a measure of defensive range based on analysis of retrosheet play by play data)

As far as pitchers are concerned, keeping HoRam out of the rotation should be the utmost priority. Why do we need a lefty in the rotation? Such a notion is overrated. Moore & Co. have performed solidly at not entrenching themselves in this particular mindset in the past, as Perez, Bale, and De La Rosa were all reasonable options for the rotation, competition include. However, Ramirez - isn't. No upside there. More on this to come. Just go with the 5 pitchers that rounded out the rotation for much of last summer, and leave the rest behind. Option Waechter to AAA Omaha, and reinvent the closer term and implement Soria as 'designated bullpen ace', designed to enter the game in the most crucial situations (usually in the later innings, admittedly). Extend Soria to 90-100 innings this season, where he can provide yet more value. The rest is history. Cruz and Mahay as prime set-up men are fairly self-explanatory. Farnsworth should be limited in high leverage situations. Tejeda should be a multi-inning middle reliever and possible set-up man should Cruz and/or Mahay falter. And Peralta and Ramirez rounding out the final two slots.

Catcher: Brayan Pena-starter vs. RHP, J.R. House-starter vs. LHP
First Base: Billy Butler-starter vs. RHP, Ryan Shealy-starter vs. LHP
Second Base: Alberto Callaspo-3/5 starter, Willie Bloomquist-2/5 starter
Third Base: Alex Gordon-starter, Willie Bloomquist-backup
Shortstop: Mike Aviles-starter, Willie Bloomquist-backup
Left Field: David DeJesus-starter, Mark Teahen-backup
Center Field: Coco Crisp-starter
Right Field: Jose Guillen-platoon, Mark Teahen-platoon
Designated Hitter: Mike Jacobs-starter vs. RHP, Billy Butler-starter vs. LHP
Starting Rotation: 1. Meche, 2. Greinke, 3. Davies, 4. Hochevar, 5. Bannister
Bullpen: BA* - Soria, SU1 - Cruz, SU2 - Mahay, MR1 - Tejeda, MR2 - Farnsworth, MR3 - Peralta, MR-4 - Ramirez
*BA = Bullpen ace

With regard to catcher, I understand Brayan Pena has reportedly had numerous communication problems with pitchers in Spring Training, especially during the practices and intrasquad games. However, he is generally regarded as an average defensive catcher. Don't let his pudginess fool you, as he is listed as 5'11" and 247 lbs. over at royals.com but appears more like 5'9" and 250 lbs. He is a rather fast runner and, as I observed in Spring Training, particularly fast when running from home plate to first base. (It is difficult to gauge a catchers' "range", as such a term only questionably exists, in the first place). Pena is a switch hitter with a career Minor League quartet of .313/.362/.411/.763 with only 193 strikeouts in 2,184 plate appearances. His career caught stealing rate is hovering at 50%, so it would be wise not to implement the running game for B. Pena this season in a hypothetical starting role at Kauffman II. CHONE believes Pena will post a .285/.338/.408/.746 line in K.C. over 365 at-bats. That likely translates to approximately 1 WAR, which is excellent for $400K in value. Pena has actually mashed lefties to the tune of a .931 OPS. However, the BABIP is a flukishly high .406. He's likely still a better right-handed hitter (unlike most switch hitters), so implementing him as such would be relatively wise in '09. More or less, the other Pena epitomizes the "Moneyball mentality", something which many members of Moore's former organization are evidently not particularly fond of. Exercising the most value of a $400K player with upside as an everyday MLB player is essential in this market. Pena should start most days. Cut Miguel Olivo's horrific on-base percentage and get rid of Buck, while we're at it.

CHONE projects a more-than-respectable .275/.339/.422 line for J.R. House in 2009, as well. At age 28, can House still be considered a prospect? He has demonstrated tremendous hitting potential in the Houston, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh organizations throughout his Minor League career, but thus far that production has translated to a measly 63 big-league plate appearances? Like Pena, he has scored a MiLB OPS of .939 against lefties, and has still hit righties well, although not nearly *as* well. The Royals must exercise their Jack Cust-Beane-P.T. abilities and "break the mold." Although his defense could grade as mediocre at best in the Major Leagues, I think House could serve as a legitimate backup, and could post a positive WAR, overall. Again, for $400K? Excellent distribution of your resources. Scope his 2009 projections - and give him a chance to duplicate John Buck's upside for 1/10 the price.

-------

Explanations for my picks for first base, second base, third base, and so on will be prominent features of The Royal Treatment from now until Opening Day. In the meantime, be on the lookout.

And I wanted to conduct 'Raw' Interviews with Scout.com posters rock8888 and Duraflame, but have yet to hear back. Come on, guys, I know you want to unleash your fury on another Royals blog, and now is your chance!

Spring Training Wrap-Up, Recent Royals News & Notes, and More

2009-03-18T18:42:00.006-05:00

For those of you who have yet to figure it out, I at often times get zealous with my Spring Training observations and remarks. Hey, it's a once-a-year experience. The weather is second to none, the scenery is beautiful, and after five months of cold miserable midwestern/Missouri mayhem (how is that for alliteration?), I get to experience my quintessential life passion and joy, like I did when I was 7? Nonetheless, with regard to the photo-distributing, it gets frustrating when I churn out several hundred photos in a particular day, and then Wireless Internet - a wonderful technological endeavor, but not without its flaws - prevents me from posting them on Facebook or on this website in a time span somewhere south of 3 1/2 hours - extending well into moonlight hours.

Below are links to each Spring Training photograph album that I planted on Facebook. I hope these links work. I'll list them linear-ly: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, and, finally, Part 8. You have to be a registered Facebook member to view, and there's always a chance you could be the second coming of Charlie Manson, but my life is an open book, anyway. At least through Internet sources.

Anyway, Season #8 (I attended Baseball City, FL in 1997 and 1999, and attended Surprise Spring Training in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, and now 2009, respectively) was a resounding success. I met some Jennifer Love Hewitt and Britney Spears lookalikes along the way, so that was an added bonus. Just kidding (and, yes, Britney is still slammin').

I've offered the Royals Nation admin-job to skillset, but have yet to read a reply. If you're interested, skills, let me know. I think there is quite a bit to work with, myself. The board seems to have a loyal following without me. But I'm an Internet perfectionist, at heart. It was all or nothing - and as I stated earlier, I felt I wasn't reaping benefits for the time I was devoting to the board. and I'm a relatively busy guy. That's probably difficult to agree with, given the amount of times you read from 'Royals Nation' on several Royals blog/sites, but I'm like 1984 Rickey Henderson on these late-20th century devices. It gets the best of me, sometimes.

In other news, several Major and Minor League transactions have taken place in the last several days.

The Royals released southpaw/shoulda-been coulda-been 2003-2006 and 2008 LOOGY (left handed one out guy) Yimmy Yobble on Wednesday. As mentioned by Drew Silva in MLBTR, the Royals will shave roughly $1.1MM off the 2009 payroll with this release. It's a crying shame Trey Hillman couldn't have exercised his career splits more in the pitcher's (and the team's) favor last year. Gobble fell somewhat out of favor with casual fans after posting a career-high 8.81 ERA, and being used in an all-too high Game Leverage Index (gmLI) of 0.75. He posted a VORP of -10.6 in '08, costing the team approximately 1 1/2 wins. Nonetheless, his projections for 2009 don't appear too bad. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but projections don't account for situation implementation among relievers.

CHONE: 4.21 FIP, 4.73 ERA, 59 IP
Marcel: 4.60 FIP, 4.88 ERA, 47 IP
ZiPS: 4.41 FIP, 4.74 ERA, 49.1 IP

OK, rather pedestrian numbers, overall. But consider that lefties hit .200/.246/.323/.569 against him overall, in 2008, and .241/.325/.398/.724 against him in 2007. Eliminating the curve-ball likely hurt him, last year. I consider this a plus-pitch for Gobble, and if he could re-implement it for another club, he could likely add to his apparent success as a LOOGY for that particular team. (Note that many people believe that small to mid market ballclubs like the Royals cannot afford the luxury to devote an entire million dollars - and a roster slot on the 25-man - to a situational pitcher like Gobble. I disagree with this notion. In 2007, Gobble pitched 53.2 innings - a sizeable chunk for any relief pitcher making roughly twice the league minimum. Approximately 60% of the batters he faced in this season were left-handed. I understand cherry-picking should be avoided, but if he can post a 3.02 ERA, then he could prove as an asset. (And, yes, I understand the ERA was somewhat artificially small - his FIP this year was 4.23, which indicated that the defense played flukishly well against him in '07. His LD% was 79.9% this year - an amazingly high number despite his low result). Still, if implemented correctly, he is still worth devoting a roster spot to - especially over the likes of Ross Gload (1.6 WAR in 2008) and Tony Pena (-2.0 WAR in 2008).

In other news, the Royals have signed Sidney Ponson of Aruban/Dutch influence to a Minor League contract. Sir Sidney now reigns supreme as heaviest current Royal in Spring Training (watch out, Phoenix-area buffet-lines!) but I think his chances of making the 25-man roster out of camp are slim to none. In fact, they're probably less than 1%. Greg Schaum (tanana) described the situation best at Royals Corner, when he stated that Ponson, a la Jamey Wright, will simply audition this spring for a permanent spot on any 25-man roster that will take him, even if that team is not named 'K.C.'

Here is my mini-analysis of the acquisition, posted directly at Royals Corner:

This is a 'bleh' move. I'm indifferent to it, overall. It's worth noting that Ponson has little, if any, upside, anymore, as a starting pitcher. The K:BB numbers have been too dangerously close to 1 the last several years. His career high ERA was 3.85 and his career high FIP was 3.67 (no other year did he have an ERA or FIP under 4). CHONE, Marcel, and ZiPS all project ERA's over 5 and FIPS over 4.8 for him this year....which makes him a borderline #4 and a decent #5. The problem with that is nobody seriously wants to pursue a #5 pitcher with upside that limited. That is why young pitchers with potential usually grab this role. His bit of success with the Yankees was a fluke - brief spouts of success like such happen more than occasionally b/c of the "book syndrome" (there's a real term for this, but I don't remember what it is).

He reminds me a bit of Horacio Ramirez. Similar OK-ish groundball-inducing ability, both are FB-SL-CB guys, similar K:BB ability. Maybe he'd fit in the bullpen. Who knows? More than likely Omaha fodder. OK move, though. Worth a flier on a MiLB contract, I guess.

As I mentioned, whatever upside Ponson had vanished sometime in the early 2000's. He is now seeking to eat innings in any fashion he can stomach (two puns in one sentence!)

Another "Minor" move occurred today. As mentioned in the MLBTR-linked Gobble blurb above, the Royals have signed ex-Atlanta Brave Anthony Lerew. You're probably thinking, "Why sign another ex-Brave, Dayton? Weren't the first 50 low-risk Minor League acquisitions enough?" The subject of ex-Brave acquisitions and their impact on the success of the ballclub is a valid one, and it is a subject likely worth tangling on TRT on another instance. Lerew has spent the majority of the last two seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he is worth a flier. I see no potential downside in this move*

*Of course (as always), if the player is implemented correctly.

Here are his projections for 2009, for what they are worth (and it's not much, given his recent injury history).

CHONE: 5.18 ERA, 43:32 K:BB, 66 IP
Marcel: 4.58 ERA, 44:23 K:BB, 56 IP
ZiPS: 6.49 ERA, 37:38 K:BB, 61 IP

J.J. Picollo originally signed him back in 2002. He has almost exclusively started games in the Atlanta farm system, so I assume Moore will implement him as a starter for this organization. However, Minor League experts might know better in this regard. The Braves evidently eliminated his curveball last year, although it was in limited duty. I described him as a fastball-change pitcher. His fastball ranges from 90-93 miles per hour, roughly, which is a tick above average velocity-wise. How have Lerew's secondary pitches progressed since undergoing "the knife"? It's strange the Bravos released him, as some upside appears to be remaining. In limited big-league time, he didn't appear ground-ball oriented, but has limited opposing batters to just 33 home runs in 763 innings pitched throughout Atlanta's system. Not too shabby.

Numbers-wise, his career Minor League ERA still stands at 3.41, and his K:BB ratio is a quite Kyle Davies-upside like 2 1/2 to 1.

Below are some pictures of Lerew. Hat-tip to none other than Dave Sanford at Royals Corner for providing these photos in the thread dedicated to the signing.

Spring Training Trip: Final Day (3/14)

2009-03-14T22:20:00.005-05:00

Today marked our final full day in the blissful comfort of the 70+ degree weather in the Arizona desert. It featured an early rising from yours truly, as I (once again) traveled to the practice fields to witness the players up close and take pictures. I was sent on assignment to deliver photos for three Royals' Minor Leaguers, but I could only find two. At first, I was puzzled why pitchers were mysteriously missing from camp, but they stood in the outfield virtually the entire time to shag fly balls and gap hits from the hitters' batting practice. That doesn't make for many Kodak moments, especially considering how far away I stood and how the sun beamed down upon the hitters virtually all morning.

Anyway, as far as pitchers went, I snapped several photos of Carlos Rosa, whom I assumed had been reassigned permanently to MiLB camp. He threw several fastballs, and appeared to be popping the ball quite well into the catchers' mitt. The Royals' officially announced the transaction today, and this has sent the blogosphere abuzz, somewhat. The forecasts don't appear too friendly on Rosa, as CHONE, Marcel, and ZiPs project FIP's of 4.72, 4.20, and 4.13 respectively. These projections don't exactly mirror that of a bullpen ace, but I think Rosa's "1, 2 punch" - his fastball and slider - are Major League bullpen ace-caliber. Obviously, the K/9 rate forecasts are modest considering they essentially rate him as a starter (two of the projections peg him as tossing more than 100 innings). The Royals have announced that Rosa will pitch exclusively out of the 'pen in '09. I would personally rather them implement Rosa as a starter in the Pacific Coast League, and then act accordingly from there. However, I'm not sweating, as he does not possess a plus tertiary pitch and has an abundant history of injuries.

In the Minor League camp, I caught several groups of players conducting batting practice. Prospects Shawn Griffin, Carlo Testa, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Jeff Bianchi, Jamar Walton, Devery Van De Keere, among many others took B.P. in the cages. I was quite impressed with Moustakas and Hosmer, who were shooting the gaps extremely well. Shawn Griffin also impressed, notably. Patrick Norris appeared to have a more ground-ball oriented swing, which is okay, in my book....I have heard rants and raves about his speed, for what it's worth.

Here are some general notes for the day. It was an otherwise bleak Royals game - virtually no hitting to speak of.

- Brian Bannister looked, once again, like the Brian Bannister of 2008. Just simply falling behind too many hitters and surrendering big hits. His lack of an "out pitch" helped induce many batted balls.

- With the above said, it did seem that the Diamondbacks were incredibly lucky with their batted balls this year. They found the holes and hit many dunkers that scored as hits.

- Brandon Duckworth looked gritty, once again. Unfortunately, he demonstrated why he'll likely spend the vast majority of '09 in Omaha. 3 earned in 2 IP.

- Yasuhiko Yabuta's circle change cost him in terms of a three-run home run. Yowza!

- Ryan Shealy made a nice diving/sliding play at first base. He also went 2-for-2, overall.

This could be characterized as blasphemy around these parts, but I started feeling excessively tired around 3:30, to the point of where the Sandman froze me for roughly an hour and a half until we felt an urgency for Asian food. The Chinese restaurants out in Arizona do not hold a candle to the 'straunts (new word) in Springfield, MO. Oddity of location be damned, those places are incredible.

By the way, as I was writing this blog post, I chatted online extensively with a Royals Minor Leaguer. This is completely unrelated, but Minor League cuts will likely occur soon. I realize cuts are inevitable - this week must be one of the single most difficult ones for Minor League players in every organization. One day, you're a professional ballplayer, with obvious job security. The next hour, you are unemployed. Needless to say, I hope to see this person playing again this year.

Anyway, today marked a rather short synopsis, but what can I say? It was a bleak Royals game that featured little hitting and suspect pitching. The Minor League practices consisted mostly of B.P. rounds, shagging in the outfield, and the intermittent infield drills.

Spring Training Trip: Day Five (3/13)

2009-03-13T23:25:00.004-05:00

Unfortunately, the second consecutive Friday the 13th marked an overnight (roughly 12 a.m. until 10 p.m.) of tumultuosity between being awake, being pseudo-asleep, and being involved in an extremely deep sleep. I slept in the same room as my father, who somehow obtained ridiculous nasal-related problems which forced him to snore incessantly most of the overnight. I *loathe* the idea of snoring, as I never sleep. Anyway, push came to shove, and I did not sleep soundly until roughly 8:30 in the morning. I finally woke up around 10:30, and scrambled to get everything ready in order to take an appropriate amount of pictures at Minor League practice fields before they departed, which ultimately was approximately 11:45.

Anyway, I ended up snapping six or seven dozen photographs throughout the day - at the practice fields and game alike - so it was work well done. Sometimes, I feel that when conversating with my father about the particular Minor League players of choice, I'm yaking at thin air - or a wall which either stares at me blankly or ignores me entirely. My uncle and father are dedicated Royals fans, to be sure, but I doubt my father could tell you first hand who pitcher Tim Melville is. Neither could tell you who David Lough is. Certainly, neither one of them would devote their fanhood to snapping pictures of practices, or for that matter - even calling into radio programs more than once a week. However, both of them share a profound interest in the game, and probably know more about historical aspects of the game - especially, analytically, as they obviously attended games from as early as the 1960s - than I do.

As a side note, sometimes I feel that the verbage that gets circulated routinely throughout the blogosphere sounds awkward in real life. In other words, I often stumble when saying 'VORP' when describing a particular player. At first, I stumbled when using the "trio" (as I call it) of a particular player. When I'm reading blogs aloud, reading the batting average, followed by the on-base percentage, followed by the slugging percentage, sounds awkward to me. Does the 6 belong in the previous percentage or the next percentage? Where do the numbers end and begin? And trying to ignore the 'RBI' chatter....I'm sorry, but it is very well possible for a 90-RBI guy to have a subpar year, as Guillen did last year. Anyway, I digress.

Fortunately, despite my late arrival, I captured a couple dozen pictures of Minor Leaguers in action. I found that mostly batting practice - with sets of fielders standing at their respective positions - was taking place. The players walked by me at an amazingly close level. Anyway, I've been sent on a particular assignment for Saturday's morning practice field excursion, so at least I'll have one purpose (I crave these, by the way).

I caught the catchers - notably, Salvador Perez, Sean McCauley, Josh Vittek, and Jose Bonilla - hitting in the cages. I wouldn't say any particular catcher dazzled, but the sample size is (as always) extremely limited. I was impressed with Perez' ability to hit in the gaps and Bonilla snapped a few long gap hits, as well.

In one of the photos at the bottom, you'll see the several hundred minor leaguers filing off to the Surprise Stadium clubhouse. To see the players' mass exodus - so soon - took me by surprise, no pun intended.

Here are several notes from the Major League game. By the way, we attended the Surprise, AZ 4-1 victory today. Not the 5-1 beatdown over in Phoenix, where the Milwaukee Brew Crew call home.

- My father noted that the dominant aspect of every game we have seen thus far, including the game that I witnessed on Tuesday, has been fantastic pitching, notably the starting pitching. Meche, HoRam, Davies, Hochevar, Tejeda each surrendered three earned runs or less in multiple innings. (I feel that HoRam's earned run in the first inning of Thursday's game should have been unearned - Teahen completely botched that play).

- Another aspect of the game was that even I'll admit that Ross Gload looks thoroughly fantastic at the plate, in this limited playing time. I believe Gload is a near-lock to make the final roster cut. Tony Pena will likely end up in AAA, with Buck, Bloomquist, and Teahen making those final three bench roster slots. Again, that's just my opinion and gut feeling. For the record, Bill James projects a .294/.340/.423/.763 line for Gload this year, which isn't entirely awful for a backup.

- Luis Hernandez looks slick around the bag at shortstop. I forsee a Tony Pena, Jr. lookalike playing at Omaha virtually the entire season (sans, possibly, September). His career .245/.289/.316/.605 line in the Minor Leagues looks positively TPJ-like. I hope the organization doesn't make the mistake of running him out there for a -1.2 WAR for two consecutive seasons.

- Covelli Crisp continues to work the count well. He covers quite a spell of ground in center field, as does DeJesus in left (although he lost a ball in the air today). I predict very good things defensively for the left side of the diamond in '09 (i.e. Gordon, Aviles, Crisp, and DeJesus).

- John Buck hit a towering 2-run opposite field shot. Essentially a no-doubter.

- Billy Butler looked fooled on breaking pitches. He has looked fooled on these in games prior.

- Robinson Tejeda's stuff looked thoroughly dominant. Unfortunately, he worked himself in a few strong hitters' counts - and issued a few walks - but he struck out seven. The heat - and slider - was clearly functioning today.

- I captured several photographs of the Royals management team, including "interim" manager Mullet.

My uncle noted yesterday that at certain times, a player's contributions on the field transcended numbers or statistical data. He emphasized that at certain times, a player's willingness to work or hustle hard, or have positive personality attributes that can rub off on teammates well, the team could be considered better. He said that Gload and Bloomquist's reputation as "winners" in the clubhouse helped - and could help - their respective teams perform better on the field. He said their situations mirrored those of average people, who can use personality and hard work to achieve what they want and rub off positively on everyone around them, making everyone around them better. In baseball terms, I won't delve into my opinions - but it's food for thought. He basically insinuated that the Royals are modeling themselves under this philosophy - that "clubhouse" men can help. What does the TRT audience think about said scenario? Should we now ignore the statbook? (TRT says "NO!") (TRT also says, "but paying those guys millions and overplaying them over more deserving cost-controlled youngsters is an anti-progressive move for a low-budget organization nowhere close to contention!") The rest of the majority of the blogosphere agrees, while Hapless Royals probably wants to shoot me right now.

Unfortunately, we had to leave at approximately 3:10 p.m. - or the beginning of the Seventh Inning Stretch - to go hot air ballooning. I say 'unfortunately', although this activity also would have been fun. Because of a looming storm and some high wind gusts, the adventure was cancelled. We essentially drove one hour and then drove in a van for thirty extra minutes, and waited another twenty minutes, to get let down, but que sara, sara. And, yes, I probably mispelled that grossly.

News & Notes

2009-03-13T01:00:00.002-05:00

Below is a gander at what is on the TRT news front for the coming days and weeks.

- I hope to get an official, permanent 'The Royal Treatment' logo for the website, soon. If anyone has photoshop experience, it would be greatly appreciated. Much like the New York Yankees, I'm having to seek outside sources for my organizational talent. Again, you'll be credited on this site, as I'll generally bow before you in gratitude.

- My Spring Training trip lasts until Sunday, so I'll churn out daily updates through Saturday's game (3/14).

- As I mentioned earlier, I decided to depart Royals Nation, as I felt it was becoming too high-maintenance on my part, and I wanted to devote more time to discussing the Royals in great detail. I wasn't reaping enough benefits for the time devoted to the site. That's certainly not an indictment against the many loyal readers and posters who devoted much of their time to the site. Hopefully, we can make the transition of power - if there is one - as smooth as possible.

- If you have any suggestions for the website, e-mail me (e-mail is in my profile).

Spring Training Trip: Day Four (3/12)

2009-03-12T21:04:00.012-05:00

Today's version of the event drew as much action as Day One, if not more. I traveled out to the Major and Minor League practice fields for a 30-minute photo roundup before retreating to my hotel room, and then picking up my uncle, cousin, and father at the Phoenix airport. A little off-topic related note: I missed the hotel breakfast so I had to travel to the grocery store to pick up a muffin or fruit, or something of that nature - something that fit the profile of a prototypical breakfast. I didn't have much time to spare, but I - shockingly - find that the grocery store is rather crowded at 10 a.m. on a Thursday morning. Why, you ask? Well, Surprise, Arizona is home to prolific retirement communities, and the official retirement community - Sun City - is not too far north from the area. So, you do the math. It was frustrating, because I stood in line for about 3 minutes behind 5 elderly people - to find no progress - and then finally retreated to Starbucks for an instant purchase-and-go-. Keep in mind that I love the elderly folks! I just hate the aggravating slowness that accompanies standing in a line behind 5 or more of them.

(Sometimes, I feel that I'm uncovering Narnia with these anecdotes. It's as if I'm discovering hidden gems in the bottom of an ocean that no man has yet discovered). Nonetheless, here are some general notes from Minor and Major League practice camp.

- The major leaguers rotated the baseball around a circle on the diamond consisting of 9 to 10 players, each. They rotated in two groups. One drill was to toss to any random player, and the other drill was to toss to a random player, and then state the name of another player. Minutes later, the team worked on outfield drills, where they relayed cutoff throws down two lines in the outfield, located in left-center and right-center. There were roughly a dozen onlookers like myself, some of which were taking pictures.

- I then retreated to Minor League camp and watched several pitchers throw from the mound and do drills, either throwing to second base, fielding bunted baseballs, or simply going through the motions fulfilling simulated situations. I captured many pictures of these events, which were taking place simultaneously on all four diamonds.

- Pitchers Tim Melville, Paul Raglione, and Pernell Halliman towered over other pitchers in camp. There was also a pitcher whose last name was 'Villa' who appeared astonishingly short. Who was this guy?

- I watched several batting drills, as well. Marc Maddox and Jose Duarte, among others, stepped in. I only devoted 25-30 minutes, overall, so I didn't have time to analyze them.

- Size is his advantage, but Brian Buchanan looked a bit awkward in the batting cage.

- The big-leaguers looked incredibly quick with the timing, handwork, and release of their throws, when witnessing them in person.

And now several notes from the game. The Royals, quite obviously, won 9-3, thanks to several stellar individual offensive performances and a lights-out performance from Hiram Kyle Davies. Davies seeks to crack the #3 slot in the rotation, and at this point, at least #4 is all but a certainty.

- As I mentioned, Davies turned out quite dominant today. He struck out several White Sox batters, and dropped his curveball in the strike zone quite well. Also, he was spotting his fastball extremely well.

- Horacio Ramirez was by no means dominating. I convinced my father and uncle that he did not possess any particular 'out' pitch, and that the quality (or lack thereof) would hinder him from striking out many batters this season, which is why his upside as a starting rotation is severely limited. He relies on defense.

- Mark Teahen will *not* be playing second base this season. It was a curious experiment worth devoting time to, in my opinion. However, it is one that has and will not work. Teahen jabs at the ball like an outfielder or third baseman and does not lower his backside when fielding the ball. In the first inning, a ball was hit about 10 feet to his left, and he could not make the play. Simply inexcusable. His two-run home run was promising, though. He possesses the potential - can he ever convert that potential into consistent results.

- Alex Gordon worked the count generally well but didn't display the power I would have liked to see. He covered quite a spell of ground at third base, though.

- Billy Butler made a nice leaping catch at first base, that was rather unexpected. We were obviously pleased. I would like to see Butler play primarily first base throughout the season, because although he doesn't possess the agility, he has the soft hands necessary to field the position. (He was drafted, originally, as a third baseman).

- Chris Lubanski hit a towering three-run home run to right field that was, in essence, a no-doubter.

- Corey Smith looked quite competent at the plate. I'm looking forward to seeing him fulfill Chad Spann's vital role to the success of the O-Royals.

- Crisp worked the count quite well, drawing two walks.

- Mike Jacobs hit the ball hard when he was at the plate, but unfortunately did not work the count well, at all. Over or under on a .310 OBP this season? I hope he hits 30+ homers.

For more photographs, you'll have to access Facebook.

Spring Training Trip: Day Three (3/11)

2009-03-11T23:11:00.005-05:00

Below are some brief notes from my third day on my Surprise, Arizona excursion - and my second day in Royals "camp" as unofficial guest blogger.

We'll begin with some notes from Minor League camp.

- Mike Moustakas has taken an active role in vocal leadership. He was instructing fellow (ex?) Bees Jeff Bianchi, David Lough, and Johnny Giavotella in bunting exercises. He sounds like a real active team leader. Something that, unfortunately, in my opinion, was sadly missing in Billy Butler and Alex Gordon throughout the minors and during their brief Major League tenures.

- Moose also looked quite awkward at times, when walking around. ESPN's Keith Law has noted that Moustakas is difficult to project, and seemed to imply in a recent article that the 20 year old would be best implemented as a starting catcher. It's difficult to disagree with him. Moose is bulky, but short, but contains many tools that would be prevalent for a cornerman: a 70-arm on the 20-80 scouting scale, and, you guessed it, POWER.

- I caught many pitchers doing cardiovascular exercises on massage tables immediately outside one of the practice fields. It was interesting how they set these tables up. There were approximately four tables, total, and the pitchers would rotate turns exercising on these tables.

- Suspended Royals Jason Taylor and Jarrod Dyson were not present in camp. One player tested positive for an amphetamine, and another was suspended for another drug. 50 games each.

- Jamar Walton towered over many Royals players. The Bees' roster lists him as 6'4", but he looked at least 6'7". I have read nothing about Walton's allegedly(?) expanded physical frame, but is it even possible for 23 year olds to grow vertically? If so, then I might become tall enough to safely project as a starting pitcher for many organizations. (In 1980 and before, I would have had no problem).

- Outfielder Jordan Parraz, who was acquired in a trade with the Astros for Tyler Lumsden, seemed like he knew quite a few Royals on the field. I think obtaining even Parraz - a once high-ceiling prospect who had fallen somewhat out of favor in the 'Stros organization - was a miracle for Lumsden, who came off an abysmal season where he was banished to mopup bullpen duty for an otherwise depleted Omaha rotation down the stretch in 2008. Parraz is a classic 'ability' player with no single outstanding skill, other than his propensity for getting on-base, which counts as a (sixth) skill in some scouts' books.

- Anthony Seratelli looks like he lunged at several baseballs low. Definitely a gap-to-gap hitter who needs to lay back on breaking pitches in order to succeed. Since he played mostly first base for the Rocks last season, he'll need to work on those weaknesses.

- The low minors guys scream 'I Got It!' insatiably loud before catching each pop fly. It's fairly evident they preach a loud signaling throughout the minors as far as catching fly balls.

- Sean McCauley has added significant weight. A major necessity, in my opinion. I'm glad.

- I was surprised to see Miguel Moctezuma practicing with the upper-Minors players. He is stocky, but hit the ball quite well in batting practice.

- Idaho Falls pitcher Colby Beach was throwing flames in the pitching sessions.

In the meantime, peruse the TRT top 20 prospects, below. I described these prospects quite thoroughly in one of my previous posts.

Here are some notes (and pictures) from the Major League contest.

- Gil Meche did not use pitches terribly efficiently, and (to his bad luck) induced plenty of foul balls and unlucky batted ball data (BABIP), which contributed to his high pitch count for the afternoon. He finished hitters quite well (3 strikeouts) but still walked two. He must have thrown at least 50 pitches, which is entirely too high for 2 1/3 innings.

- Joel Peralta and Heath Phillips were lights out. Phillips struck out 3 hitters in 2 innings and Peralta struck out the side (but also surrendered a blazing liner back up the middle).

- Jimmy Gobble was his normal self. He labored through his inning, surrendering two hits and falling behind several hitters, but ended the inning unscathed, thanks to some liners which were hit directly at fielders. Definitely the Gobble of '08. He's likely on the outside looking in, as far as nailing one of those two final bullpen slots. I would say Waechter and HoRam have the inside track for those roster spots.

-Billy Butler raked. He hit a three-run home run and generally worked the count well. He was in command of the strike zone.

- Alex Gordon needs to lay off the off-speed pitches low, and needs to stop taking perfectly good pitches inside the strike zone deep in the count. I'm not normally a proponent of an overtly aggressive style of offensive approach, but in Gordon's case, he needs to balance over-aggressiveness and over-passiveness. Because he often wavers too heavily in both directions.

- Brayan Pena is quite speedy for his heaviness. He hustled down the first base line, but was thrown out after getting a terrible jump off a Seattle pitcher in the seventh inning. As I have written several times, I hope he makes the team. For the record, BBTF's Zips Projections pegs Pena as posting a trio of .280/.326/.392 this year - which outperforms both Buck and Olivo (yet still doesn't approach House's .291/.346/.436 projected line). Why can't we see a Pena-House platoon for the Royals Catching Solution 2009?

- Dave DeJesus worked the count well, despite not drawing a walk.

- Welcome back, Mark Teahen, Miguel Olivo, and Jose Guillen! Olivo started, but Teahen did not play, and Guillen was absent due to the birth of his son. The Canadian and Dominican Republic WBC teams were eliminated yesterday. Anyone else thoroughly shocked at the early demise of the stacked D.R. squad?

Below are three pictures. All photos can be found via Facebook.

Spring Training Trip: Day Two (3/10) - Non-Baseball

2009-03-11T22:40:00.012-05:00

A fair warning to the TRT faithful: Tuesday, March 10 marked a day entirely devoid of any baseball activity, whatsoever. It was indeed a day in which Dayton Moore's Royals were forced - or locked out? - of camp, and therefore no baseball activity ensued on my (lowly) end of the spectrum.

However, I did several other fun activities throughout the day. The morning was spent beginning a writing assignment for one of my classes (fun!) and the afternoon was spent driving to Tombstone, Arizona, home of plenty of Old West cinemas from the 1950s and 1960s (thanks, Uncle Mike!) and home of the prestigious Bird Cage Theater.

Now, paranormal buffs such as myself know about the SciFi television program Ghost Hunters. It just so happens that the season premiere of Ghost Hunters ensues Wednesday evening at 9/8 pm. central. The Atlantic Paranormal Society (TAPS, for short) visited Tombstone over two years ago and discovered plenty of activity at the small Bird Cage Theater - everything from phantom smells to noises coming from the ceiling to full-bodied apparitions. Watch the episode here.

Either way, I've provided some photographs below. I experienced precisely nothing myself, but I was shocked by how small the vicinity was in person. Sometimes, television gives us misperceptions, and makes things - and, sometimes, people - appear to be larger than they truly are. There were five rooms, total, in the area - on three different (1/2) levels.

The Bird Cage Theater was essentially a turn-of-the-decade era saloon and, yes, a whorehouse. Many prominent gamblers, such as "Doc" Holliday, played here. It was essentially a temporary "home" for local and national celebrities during that era. The Theater (obviously) contained an auditorium, and was essentially *the* place of Tombstone during that era. It contained a wind hall, several gaming tables, and a couple rooms downstairs where the high rollers carried on illicit love affairs. Quite fun.

For the record, I am beginning a paranormal investigation group tentatively titled 'Mid-West Paranormal.' We will be actively exploring reportedly haunted regions throughout the midwest. In fact, we have already explored Stull, Kansas - supposedly one of the seven gateways to Hell, Sauer Castle in Kansas City, Kansas, Hotel Savoy in Downtown Kansas City, where a person was murdered inside one of the rooms, and Odd Fellows Insane Asylum in Liberty, Missouri, home of several paranormal phenomenon. Keep in mind that this project is tentative, and we need to organize paperwork and add members, as well. As of now, only three members of this group currently exist. We cover material systematically and scientifically, so EMF detectors are used, as well as tape recorders, thermometers, and cameras. For more information on the group, contact yours truly.

Jack, I thought you were covering baseball material on this blog?!

TRT vs. RN

2009-03-11T20:33:00.002-05:00

I've decided to officially close Royals Nation. I extend admiration for all loyal RN posters, but I felt the website was becoming a daunting task, as the level of commitment I put into the site didn't result in much output. Translation: I wasn't yielding many benefits from the website, as participation was too sparse. I appreciate the active posters, though. There are other message boards throughout Royalsnet that can provide the fan with greater wealths of information. From here forth, I will focus exclusively on this blog, The Royal Treatment. I've also been told I will contribute actively over at the 610 Sports' forthcoming Royals-oriented baseball site. Be sure to peruse that website, once it becomes available....for the 2009 Royals season.

I'm looking forward to communicate to the fans in (hopefully) a more consistent manner. I'm brainstorming several features that I hope this site will bring. Note that the site may not provide all of these avenues. Rather, this is open brainstorming on my part.

- Game results, summaries, and general game-oriented thoughts. This feature is a bit generic, but sometimes final conclusions can be drawn on individual games. (For example, 'x' should no longer be our starting pitcher after 'y' game).

- Open discussions and contests. (Should Alberto Callaspo or Willie Bloomquist be the starting second baseman?)

- Reactions/responses to recent newspaper stories. (This is rather self explanatory. Reactions to particular team acquisitions may surface).

- Dwelling into individual players, statistically (What is Ross Gload's xBABIP?)

- Positional battles. (1B, 2B, SS....)

- Division previews & general baseball chatter. (The A-Rod saga!)

- Occasional off-topic discussion (Politics, music)

- Minor League analysis (scouting reports and updates on the farm)

- Firsthand accounts of games/practices (Spring Training 2009)

As always, TRT will maintain an open and friendly outlook on basic and advanced statistics in baseball. Some advanced statistics that will be readily embraced (among others) are:

EqA (equivalent average), FIP (fielding independent ERA), OPS+ (On-base + Slugging percentage adjusted), WAR (wins above replacement player), VORP (value over replacement player), tRA (ERA adjusted), and wOBA (weighted on-base + slugging percentage).

However, I will implement these statistics in lamen's terms, and I will also provide tools-oriented and scouting-based analysis that is more understandable to casual fans and fans who don't devote much of their time to statistical research or analysis.

Fellow contributors Skills, dejesus9, RLBlue, gordon3b, plotty, and Blown Save are also invited to continue posting on this website in any matter they see comfortable. Their manner may not exactly mirror my manner, although I'm probably doing most of the posting, from here forth.

An updated blogroll has been placed on the right hand of your screen, and the general layout for the blog has been updated, so more information can be readily accessible toward the top of the page. In other words, the information has been spread out, so more is available on 'x' page.

I'm looking forward to a bright TRT future! Hope you enjoy!

Spring Training Trip: Day One (3/9)

2009-03-09T21:13:00.006-05:00

Yesterday marked the return of the (almost) annual RN/TRT excursion to Arizona. Rather than form some long-winded introduction, I'll just provide some simple photos and a general synopsis of the day (from my website Royals Nation) below. (*Edit* It took me about 10 min. to edit this post after posting those pictures. Blogger freaking sucks). (*Double edit* Now Blogger is effing up my spacing. Screw you, Blogger).

Enjoy!

Non-baseball related:

- Stunning weather - highs in the mid 70's and lows in the upper 50's. Monday was a partly cloudy today, with the sun not typically shining too bright. Definitely plus-plus weather.

- I lost my ID at the KCI Airport yesterday. Thanks to security (if, by some .00000001% chance, you're reading this forum) for handling the transfer, so I could actually rent a car.

- They screwed up my Rent-a-Car service, so I now have a nice Nissan Maxima until Thursday. Pretty sweet.

- My hotel location = awesome.

Baseball related:

- Kyle Farnsworth looked terrible today. Straight fastball and falling behind hitters. Walks and flyball tendencies are not a good thing. Overpaid, and hindsight is 20/20, but foresight wasn't exactly 20/1000, either, with regard to that contract.

- Saw prospect Kyle Martin hitting in the cages today. He can rake. He was on a role, cranking at least two home runs and several more deep to the gaps. He's an intriguing prospect, and one could at least make arguments for top 20 or 25 on a Royals list.

- Saw other top prospects Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas up close today, as well as virtually every other minor leaguer and top 'spect (Giavotella, Bianchi, among many more). Some major emphasis on bunting in Spring Training, at least today.

- Who knew the Minor Leaguers use training/baggy pants for sliding? Rather than getting your polyester uni's wet, this is an excellent idea.

- Royals hitting was anemic, and resembled their Hacktastic ways of 2007 and 2008. Definitely not good. Ah, life in a Dayton Moore offense. Be aggressive!- Gload starting in right field, Pena starting at SS, and Bloomers starting at 2B. Not a good omen for Opening Day.

- Brian Bannister resembled the Banny of '08 today. Too many fallen behind hitters and home runs/fly balls allowed. He has no out pitch, folks. I'm worried.

- Bullpen other than Farnsworth (Wright, Waechter) didn't look much better.

The Royals lost Game 1 at Mesa (vs. the Cubs) 9-1. Here is Kaegel's KCRoyals.com summary.

And below are four pictures from Minor League camp and Monday vs. the Cubs at Hohokam Park. For the complete picture set, you'll have to access Facebook. If you don't have Facebook, then too bad.

Mike Stinkey: Raw

2009-03-05T22:28:00.004-06:00

NOTE: Keep in mind that this segment of 'Raw' only consists of two questions, total.

Mike Stinkey has posted around Royals Corner nearly as long as the site has been around. His opinions have generally inspired polarizing reactions - everything from resentment to agreement (but mostly resentment). Although I disagree with his sentiments on the obvious former ex-Royal, I happen to understand the logic in much of what Mike Stinkey says that doesn't revolve around the former captain. I think even he'd admit he's a bit of a cynic, but he provides non-self effacing comic relief to the board.

Unfortunately, I couldn't extract much from the determined Mr. Stinkey, but here are a couple questions to which he did respond. Keep in mind that the sentiments of these particular posters do not necessarily mirror those of yours truly. Also, these series are unedited. I decided to triple-space the responses in classic Stinker fashion.

TRT: Introduce yourself. How did you become a fan of the Royals, and how did you discover the Royals message boards, notably the message board you currently contribute to, Royals Corner?

MS: Born & raised in KC. As Roy Williams might say: "I'm Royal born and Royal bred. And when I die, I'll be Royal dead." The fact is, you're given your sports teams at birth, or at least in childhood. I'm stuck with the Royals unless they fold/re-locate.

TRT: You have made your antipathy for Mike Sweeney well-known throughout Royals Message Board Nation over the past several years. Tell us how you *really* feel. All kidding aside, how did the disgust - or frustration? - for the Royals' former catcher/designated hitter/first baseman begin? Do you remain as frustrated with "Stinkey" today as he heads to the Seattle Mariners' Spring Training camp?

MS: Mike Sweeney is problematic for me on several levels. First and foremost, he was a colossal bust. Everyone can and should agree with that.

So what else is it? I am convinced he used PEDs. If that is true, everyone should dislike his usage and his denials.

He was injured a lot - 1/3 of his games under that contract. The fans & media excused the time off as simply bad luck. Quite a pass.Primarily though, I dislike the way he made Royals fans defend him to the death. The "Cult of Sweeney" was something I doubt we'll ever see in this town again, almost as strong as the "Cult of Derrick Thomas". As adults, we should know everyone is imperfect....but fans don't look at THEIR GUYS as having flaws. That is odd and contributed to my disillusionment on Mike. You simply couldn't criticize his performance without being shouted at. Or worse - as hating his religion. I always found that attack to be quite weird.

-------------------

That's basically it. I would love to hear back from the Stinker in the future. The opportunity was simply too beneficial to pass up. I think I've made a lot of headway / covered unventured ground in even interviewing him, though.

In the meantime......cheers!

Dr. Thunder: Raw

2009-02-26T17:56:00.003-06:00

This marks the first of a several-part segment we will feature here at The Royal Treatment. In these features, I interview controversial - or uncompromising - bloggers throughout the Royals blogosphere. You know who they are. Lurking or posting around. At often times, they have an attitude. Many posters loathe them. Many posters love them. But they're always lurking around. Controversial, to be sure. Dr. Thunder is no different. And, man, has he captured the Royals blogosphere by storm. He has made his discontent for advanced statistics, Baseball Prospectus, and the concept of "Mother's Basement" well-documented throughout KC-baseball Blog Nation, in but an astonishingly short period of time.

He generated quite an uproar over at Royals Review when his blog, Hapless Royals, was launched almost two months ago. He has routinely cheered and jeered several posters on what I would describe his "home" message board - Royal Board. However, like the rest of the bloggers I will interview - he holds nothing back.

*Note* I do not or will not necessarily agree with all of the content posted by these bloggers. This is a controversial segment, to be sure. I hold nothing personal against anyone in the Royals blogosphere and, although I may not agree with all of you, I enjoy what you have to offer. Note that swearing and personal "calling out", so to write, might occur. The Royal Treatment remains committed to devoting a rugged appeal among these bloggers. This series is unedited....and, yes, raw.

This week, we present the sometimes polarizing but always adamant blogger Dr. Thunder. Thunder gained his blogging momentum from this site, where he posted for several months under the same moniker. He departed TRT several months ago and began his own blog, Hapless Royals, in January. Welcome back to the friendly pastures, Thunder. Take it away.

TRT: Introduce yourself. How did you become a Royals fan? Is it difficult tracking the Royals success out in California, and where do you get most Royals game updates (ex.: MLB Network, MLB Gameday, etc.)?

DT: Considering there are people who are plotting my demise as we speak, I'll just continue to introduce myself as Dr. Thunder. I'm a sexy young 30 year old man and am originally from South East Kansas, Pittsburg actually. I'm married to a woman WAY out of my league, and I have 4 beautiful children. When I say out of my league, I mean it. I fit the stereotype of a military guy. I smoke, I drink, I cuss all the time, work too much, and am always on time, for everything. But the only stereotype I don't fit, is having a fatass old lady. Its weird man. Drive up to Fort Riley some day and look around. Cows as far as the eye can see. Privates are so stupid. They hate living in the barracks so much, they marry the first pig that gives them a shot of ass. Luckily I didn't fall into that trap. I met my wife in Los Angeles and she should have never fell for a guy like me, but my charm won her over. I lived in Texas during my late teens and early 20's so I developed that Texasd rawl, and if you have ever seen the movie Ed Tv, you'll know that it don't hurt with the ladies.

As for how I became a Royals fan, it all started with little league baseball when I was in the third grade. Our coach had us all volunteer for a weekend washing cars and selling sandwiches, pop, and chips to raise enough money to take the whole team to a Royals game. At that point, I didn't even know who the Royals were, but I was still excited about venturing off to the big city. When we got there, I absolutely fell in love with everything Royals. I'd never been in a stadium so big, it was breathtaking. It was a Sunday afternoon game in August vs the Blue Jays. The Royals won that day but to tell you the truth, I couldn't have cared less, I was too awestruck to worry about winning or losing. From that day forth, they've been my sports heart and sole.

I keep track of the Royals now, mainly through the inter-webs. I have a desk job, so I always leave a Royals site in the background to check forthings, especially during the season, I use gamecast or whatever that thing is called on mlb.com to track the game. I always order the extra innings package on cable every year. It's actually a really good deal considering the shear amount of games you get a year for just $150. My only complaint is that there are no pre-game or post-game shows. My wife and I yell out "GOOD NIGHT" as soon as the last out is made because if you've never watched a game on extra innings you're missing out. It seems like the moment the last out is made, they immediately cut to a blue screen with the words Good Night in huge letters, with the most ridiculous music playing in the background. At first its annoying, but after a while my wife and I made a game of it, to see who could predict the exact second it appears.

TRT: You're a military man. How did you get involved with the army, and what inspired you to join? Are baseball and the military related in anyway? In other words, has being in the military taught you, or can it teach anyone, about baseball?

DT: I wouldn't really say anything really inspired me to join the Army other than my family heritage. My father was a Staff Sergeant in the Army from 1948-1952, and my grandfather was a corporal in the Army during world war 1. Yes, you read that right, world war ONE. I never met the guy, he died in the 60's and I wasn't even born until 78. My dad always told the best stories about the Army and the stuff he did, so hearing that my whole life definitely planted the seed for enlisting. The funny thing though, is it wasn't my first choice. I wanted to join the Air Force, but the recruiter seemed like a shifty dirtbag, so I walked next door to the Army office and the rest is history. Baseball and the military are related in a lot of different ways. The military is all about leadership and teamwork. Those are 2 of the things you hear about most when you hear about a baseball team. The new guys don't talk to the established vets, and you know your rank and file, just like when a rookie comes up for the minors. You have to understand that just because a guy is a veteran, doesn't make him a leader, it just means he's been around for a while. I hate the word manager. I don't manage people. I lead people. I am a leader. The manager of a big league ball club has to wear a lot of hats, and I think the reason a lot of them fail is that they are really good at knowing the game, but not knowing the people. Some guys need to be coddled to do a good job, others need their asses chewed daily for them to just do their damned job. It's a fine line, you have to treat everyone with respect, but stay away from group punishment. That shit almost always backfires.

TRT: You are the current administrator and writer for the blog Hapless Royals. Give us a quick synopsis about the intention of the blog. How does it differ from other websites throughout the Royals blogosphere?

DT: The blog is my way of relieving stress. Its about 75% Royals related 25% other shit. It's the common man's blog. No advanced stats, no Vorp (I could write an entire book on that term alone. Where is this magical replacement player? Is there a replacement player farm where they grow these guys?).

It differs from most Royals Blogs in the sense that I refuse to hold anything back. If someone pisses me off, chances are they'll get whats coming to them on there. I don't write it to cater to anyone but myself.

I submit 90% of the material and my only friend left from childhood, Southern Lightning, will supply the rest. He isn't really much of a baseball fan, he's more into the NFL. He's a bandwagon hopper. He was on the Red Sox wagon for a while after they won the series. We play the MLB 2K series on xbox live and he always chooses one of the top teams, and I beat his ass with the Royals every time, because I know how to use each player to their best abilities and he just plays with the set roster. He always wonders why I'd start Gathright or Larue over Sweeney or Buck, and then in the 8th when he's up by one, I'll bring in Sweeney, Buck, or Lime Brown to pinch hit and jack a 3 run bomb. I swear it happens every game, he gets so mad! He currently likes the Chiefs, but during the stellar Cowboys run in the 90's he was all about them, starter jacket and all.

TRT: You make your discontent with the predominance of the concept of "Mother's Basement" blatantly known throughout Royals websites. What is"Mother's Basement", exactly, and where and how did this resentment begin?

DT: First off, who are we to question the GM? A bunch of middle aged armchair quarterbacks with nothing more than a beer gut and stores from the "glory days" to our name, sitting around our computers wishing we were at where they already are. There's a big difference between sitting in your garage having a beer with your buddies bitching about the team, and posting it for the world to see on the inter-webs. I mean seriously, why do you think I flame idiots like NYROYAL and JOBBER on my blog, it's a taste of their own medicine. They sit and bitch and complain and bellyache all day long about Dayton Moore. So I say they're fair game, too. If they can badmouth Dayton Moore, I can badmouth them. The funny thing is, you never see Dayton Moore making up aliases and blasting these guys bitching about him. But if I bitch about these fucknobs, they make up stupid handles like sallyanncavanaugh2 and get all up in my shit. Why? Because they're insecure. They can dish it out, but they certainly can't take it.

Another guy I have a problem with is this Rany Jazzayerli character. You do realize everyone on the internet takes everything he says as the gospel right? It's just a guy with a blog. I heard he wrote some bookor something, but that still doesn't mean he's always right. If writing a book makes your right 100% of the time, we'd all be speaking German right now, praising Adolf Hitler. I like his writing style and his blogs, because he still writes about himself and his kid's births andstuff that he really embraces, not just stats and shit. But I don't worship the guy like a lot of folks do. The man-crush a lot of people have on this guy is amazing. I've actually read people saying, I wonder how Rany feels about this? WHO FUCKING CARES! How do YOU feel about this. Have an original thought! Make your own assumptions and post your opinions, not some other guy's opinions.

TRT: Which of Dayton Moore's player personnel decisions and transactions have you agreed and disagreed with the most?

DT: The funny thing is, I try not to get too worked up about a trade or decision I don't necessarily like. I just shrug it off and figure they know more about it than I do, so good for the guy getting paid I guess. But since you asked, I don't like the Doug Waechter signing. I'm kidding I just figured I'd say that one because its one that I've never seen anyone bitch about. But seriously, though I don't get the Horacio Ramirez signing. No one else was going to give this guy any money above the minimum. Why we gave this guy over a million dollars is crazy to me.

For the one I agreed with the most, hand down the Coco Crisp trade. I like it on so many levels. Here's a guy that fell out of favor in Boston. But was an certified badass in Cleveland. In my opinion, first he hurt his finger, which hurt his status, then Ellsbury catches fire and the Sox win the Series. The guy had a foot out the door the minute Ellsbury stepped into center field. I think you're going to see a much better and much more motivated Coco Crisp this year. And yes, I see the Royals picking up his option for next year, and him tearing it up in his contract year. I may be wrong, I am a lot, but I think this move singlehandedly turned this franchise around for good. I mean come on, we got Coco Crisp for Ramon Ramirez, who we got for Jorge De La Rosa, who we got for Tony Graffanino. Any way you look at it, that's a good trade.

TRT: Which Royals message boards and/or blogs do you recommend?

DT: Royal Board. I spend more time there than any other website. Royals Nation is good for the casual fan. Royals Review can lick my sack, there is nothing but self absorbed cocksuckers that overload that board with their incessant rantings. I'm talking to you Devil_Fingers.

For blogs, MtRoyals' blog is pretty good. To be quite honest I can't remember the name (Editor's Note: Royally Speaking), Royal something. In Dayton we trust is pretty good, but not updated that much. Big League Stew is fantastic. Old man Duggan's blog is good "royalscentricity" or something like that. Everything on that MVN site is garbage. Minda33 and those douche bags. And of course this blog, hey, it's where I got my start.

For other teams, Drunk Jays Fans (Toronto) is a good read, along with Gas Lamp Ball (San Diego).

TRT: It seems I first started reading from you over at Royal Board. How did you discover the Royals webosphere?

DT: To be honest, Royal board is listed on the sports illustrated Royals website. That's where I found it, and have been going ever since. Except for that 8 months I was banned for flipping out on that eyeoftiger dude. During the time I was banned is when I became more involved on your site, Royals Nation. I really don't have a flashy answer for this one, its pretty cut and dry.

TRT: You're obviously not a fan of sabermetrics and other advanced statistics in baseball. Do you know, watch, or read from any national sports writers who share similar opinions?

DT: You know, I wouldn't really say I read any one person's stuff in particular. I just read whatever I see posted by people on Royal Board and your site. And I read the stories posted on the official Royals site everyday, along with Around the Horn and Kaegel's Blogs on there. I used to really enjoy "Royales with Cheese" but he quit blogging for some reason. I'm a big fan of big league stew, as well. Those guys get it. I hated fire joe morgan with a passion. The day they quit writing was a red letter day at the Dr. Thunder mansion. Blue Collar Baseball is a nice blog to read. The guy who writes it just simply loves baseball, period.

TRT: If Dayton Moore were fired today, and Dr. Thunder assumed duties of the Kansas City Royals, which players would you sign, trade, release, etc. etc.? Basically - how would you handle the team from here forth to (hopefully) the promised land? (Assume a David Glass-like budget).

DT: I like this question, but I'm going to give it a twist. If they are STUPID enough to fire Dayton Moore and hire Dr. Thunder, then they are stupid enough to give me all the money I want to run this club. Seriously, who would fire Dayton Moore to hire me? I'm an idiot.

But going on that, Tony Pena Jr. will be the first to get the ax. Outright released. And not with some "we wish him well in futureendeavors" type statement. The press release would read like this: The KC Royals today released shortstop / backup infielder / complete waste of money/ elf, Tony Pena Jr. GM Dr. Thunder had this to say. "The guy should have never been on this roster in the first place. He's garbage and couldn't hit his way out of a wet paper bag. We wish him nothing but embarrassment and humiliation, the same way he humiliated this club every time he came up to bat and swung at a pitch 7 feet outside of the strike zone. Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out". Pena was not available for comment.

Next, I'd hire Matt Stairs as man coach. He has no duties related to baseball, he simply there to teach these metrosexuals how to be MEN. He has full authority to slap them silly if he catches anything bitch-like going on with Dejesus or Teahen or any of the other women. Traveling uniforms will be wrangler or levis jeans, chuck taylor tennis shoes, untucked tee shirts, NORMAL tee shirts not these Ed Hardy things I seerich douche bags wearing these days. Everyone on the team will be required to have a facial hair. Period. Acceptable forms include: Giambi mustaches, full beards, trucker beards (think lead singer of motorhead), or fu-man-chu's. No faggity penciled in mustaches, nojockstrap goatees, no soul patches. Hair will be unkempt at all times, 70's style. Black guys, the afro is authorized, white guys the mullet is authorized. Hispanics, just grow everything and we'll figure it out later.

Also, Matt Stairs will be Joakim Soria's personal bodyguard. He will protect him at all times, just one thing though. The braces gotta go. Messed up choppers will only enhance your aura as closer.

Powder blue road uniforms are back! The powder blue home jerseys with powder blue pants. These will no longer be worn with white pants at home. Also, the home whites are the only authorized home uniform, no dark blue tops. 2 uniforms, that's it. Simple.

That's about it. I'd just hire people who knew more about it than me and let them make the decisions until I became comfortable doing the job. I'd just be the figurehead who took all the flak for shit people didn't like.

TRT: How do you feel about the concept of steroids in baseball? Should steroid punishments continue to be instigated, or should players havethe freedom to use any performance enhancing supplement they see fit?

DT: Oh man, the million dollar question. This subject has been beaten like a dead horse by every major sports outlet in America. Here's what I'll say. Anything before MLB rules is a moot point, it wasn't against the rules so who cares, and if you ain't cheating, you ain't trying. Anything after the rules: suspend them for 1 season. If it happens Sept 6th, 2009... Your last day of suspension is Sept 5th 2010.

Drugs will never go away. Players have been using different forms of drugs to get an edge since the game was invented. Its now in this politically correct pussy society we look down on a guy trying to get an edge. There will be more and different ways to cheat, and if they get caught, they should pay the piper. If not, more power to them.

To be honest, I have much bigger things to worry about than who did steroids and when.

TRT: Which non-Royals baseball players are currently your favorite ones to watch, and why?

DT: Manny Ramirez- The guy doesn't give a fuck about what people think about him. His flamboyance is hilarious.
Derek Jeter- The consummate professional. Embodies what a leader should be.
Kevin Millar- Funniest ballplayer in the game today.
Josh Hamilton- His life hit the skids, but he turned it around and might just be the closest thing to Roy Hobbs we'll see in our lifetime.
Albert Pujols- The one guy I will say without a doubt we should have drafted. But revisionist history is douchey, so I'll just say he's a hell of a player, and I wish we had him.
Lance Berkman- Fat, long hair, nice guy. Perfect fit for my dream Royals team. There is probably more, but off the top of my head, that's all I got.

There is probably more, but off the top of my head, that's all I got. Thanks for interviewing me. I appreciate the support on my website. Once the season starts I will update it more regularly. Until then, Stay Classy, Kansas City.

-----------------------------

And that is Dr. Thunder.

Join us next week.....when we present a certain Scout.com poster with a burning antipathy toward a certain prominent ex-Royal. Stay tuned!

On The Turdburds: America's Joke

2009-02-16T21:42:00.001-06:00

I just find many Cardinals fans I encounter to be holier-than- thou in their attitues when comparing St. Louis vand Kansas City. However, many fans from St. Louis are strangely insecure and overtly defensive about their hometown. If you gather three K.C. men and three StL. men, and hold a conversation about the two cities, chances are the conversation will be dominated by the St.L. men, and will center on the city of St. Louis.

Cardinals fans, generally, want nothing to do with the Royals. They are *above* the Royals. They don't have time to remotely care for them, except for making references about a Hall of Fame Royals player who retired 16 years ago - and notably, how big of an arrogant jerk he is, and how his sexual preference fits into the picture.

I know/knew many good Cards fans, including my grandfather (Lee & Mike's dad) and my dad's business partner. But so many are completely arrogant and ignorant to matters K.C.-related. My dad's business partner will tell you that willingly.I don't see the Midwestern pride with the city of St. Louis. They are supposedly the "gateway to the west", but St. Louisian Cardinals fans are either consumed with how great of a city Chicago is and how much they envy/loathe/ despise/hate the Cubs, or are consumed with culture of the east coast. Sometimes, it seems that entire city belongs in eastern Pennyslvania or New Jersey - not freaking Missouri.

Cardinals fans continuously deem themselves the "GREATEST FANS IN THE WORLD" and are obsessed with their throwback brand of small-ball, bunting, and double-switches that have proven to not work in a number of scientifically- based baseball texts, including the renowed Moneyball. Cardinals fans readily jump at anyone who questions their team or the city. I have heard two St. Louisians deem the Arch the tallest building in the United States in my lifetime.

There is still a rivalry between the Cards and Royals. My cousin admits it. Other Cardinals fans I have encountered - including a couple at a Springfield Cardinals game - have admitted it. Otherwise they wouldn't flock to Kansas City in the thousands and thousands to watch an evidently meaningless July game.

Their 2006 squad was worse than about 5 N.L. squads and 10 A.L. squads, yet they made the postseason. Their roster, since 2005, has been shot to Hades, and they still feel entitled as "America's team."

The arrogant Turdburds fans of which I speak are a joke. And I'm looking forward to watching that team drown in a Royal-like two decades of haplessness and misery.

There.

Now I feel better.

Former Royals Throughout Baseball

2009-02-14T16:36:00.002-06:00

Here is a list of former Royals throughout baseball and which organizations they are now affiliated with. Updated 2-14-09. If I'm omitting or skipping any player, then feel free to comment below, or e-mail me.

C - Jason LaRue (STL)
C - Paul Phillips (COL)
C - Paul Bako (CHN)
C - Gregg Zaun (BAL)
C - Sal Fasano (COL)
1B - Craig Brazell (BAL)
1B - Doug Mientkiewicz (FA)
1B - Mike Sweeney (SEA)
1B - Matt Stairs (PHI)
2B - Fernando Cortez (FA)
2B - Tony Graffanino (FA)
2B - Mark Grudzielanek (FA)
2B - Jason Smith (HOU)
2B - Ruben Gotay (FA)
2B - Donnie Murphy (BAL)
SS - Angel Berroa (NYA)
SS - Jeff Keppinger (CIN)
SS - Andres Blanco (CHN)
SS - Angel Sanchez (TOR)
3B - Jose Bautista (TOR)
3B - Gookie Dawkins (FA)
LF - Emil Brown (FA)
LF - Justin Huber (FA)
LF - Chip Ambres (BOS)
LF - Matt Diaz (ATL)
LF - Alexis Gomez (DET)
LF - Dee Brown (FA)
LF - Raul Ibanez (PHI)
LF - Endy Chavez (PHI)
LF - Johnny Damon (NYA)
CF - Joey Gathright (CHN)
CF - Carlos Beltran (NYN)
RF - Jermaine Dye (CHA)

SP - Brett Tomko (NYA)
SP - Odalis Perez (WAS)
SP - Jorge De La Rosa (COL)
SP - Billy Buckner (ARI)
SP - Scott Elarton (FA)
SP - Todd Wellemeyer (STL)
SP - Mark Redman (FA)
SP - Runelvys Hernandez (Korea)
SP - Chris George (FA)
SP - Paul Byrd (FA)
SP - Jeff Suppan (MIL)
SP - Miguel Batista (SEA)
SP - Glendon Rusch (COL)
RP - Ramon Ramirez (BOS)
RP - Leo Nunez (FLA)
RP - Horacio Ramirez (KCA)
RP - David Riske (MIL)
RP - Ryan Braun (CHA)
RP - Octavio Dotel (CHA)
RP - Denny Bautista (PIT)
RP - Bobby Keppel (MIN)
RP - Andrew Sisco (CHA)
RP - Elmer Dessens (NYN)
RP - Joe Nelson (TBA)
RP - Ambiorix Burgos (NYN)
RP - Scott Dohmann (Japan)
RP - Adam Bernero (FA)
RP - Chris Booker (WAS)
RP - Kyle Snyder (NYN)
RP - Mike MacDougal (CHA)
RP - Steve Andrade (FA)
RP - Jose Diaz (LAN)
RP - D.J. Carrasco (CHA)
RP - J.P. Howell (TBA)
RP - Jeremy Affeldt (SFN)
RP - Shawn Camp (TOR)
RP - Jonah Bayliss (FA)
RP - Nate Field (FLO)
RP - Dennys Reyes (FA)
RP - Rudy Seanez (FA)
RP - Ryan Bukvich (FA)
RP - Miguel Asencio (FA)
RP - Jamey Wright (KCA)
RP - Les Walrond (Japan)
RP - Brian Shouse (TBA)
RP - Chad Durbin (PHI)
RP - Jose Santiago (FA)
RP - Dan Reichert (FA)
RP - Tim Byrdak (HOU)
RP - Jamie Walker (BAL)
RP - Tom Gordon (ARI)

FA = Free Agent
If there are any errors, let me know, as well.

Odds 'N' Ends

2009-02-12T22:44:00.003-06:00

I plan on visiting Surprise, Arizona in March for Spring Training. I will be there from Saturday, March 7 through Sunday, March 15. I'll attend 5 to 6 Royals games, and then probably do a family-oriented event, as well, as I plan on attending with several family members. Speaking of which, the S.T. forum (or sub-forum, to be precise) has now opened over at Royals Nation. Available there - and, soon, here - will be photographs from my vacation in Surprise, game summaries, and much more. Check it out.

I might be interning this summer for a reliable source. More information on that endeavor to come. Nothing is finalized, yet.

Roberto Alomar, meet the Family Guy Ragtime Quintet. In all seriousness, though, this act - if true - is a grotesque and evil act. Does this affect Roberto's Hall of Fame chances? I think it certainly does. But then who gets inducted from Baseball's Ongoing Steroid Era? McGwire? A-Rod? Bonds? Freaking Greg Maddux? Everyone's legacy is eclipsed, in my opinion. Furthermore, no player - not even Mike Sweeney - is immune from at least a small morsel of that lurking steroid shadow.

Would you juice for the benefit of being a bonafide Major Leaguer? I most certainly would not.

I compile weekly personal charts over at Pulse Music Board. The charts are posted weekly (or sometimes semi-weekly) at this thread.

I will soon begin multiple segments where I will interview uncompromising and sometimes controversial figures throughout the Royals blogosphere. I hope to land and interview several prominent names - names you have probably encountered in your short or long time frequenting message board and blogs Royals-related. The first interview could be posted as soon as next week. Stay tuned.

Murray Chass, You Are A Moron

2009-02-06T20:16:00.002-06:00

Royals Nation Does Not Exist!!!

According to arguably one of the laziest and mis- or ill-informed sports writers in the last decade, the term Royals Nation does not exist. I find this insulting and amusing at the same time. Anyone who has done any research into the Royals blogosphere knows that I frequent many other Royals websites using this moniker. In addition, I'd like to think my site holds some relevance in the blogosphere. (Not as much as Royals Review or some others, but it's been linked on many occasions). 255 members ain't bad. And, believe me, I'm not trying to sound egotistical or naive, but it shows how much Chass truly loathes the blogosphere, "Mother's Basement" types, and how little research he actually puts forth in the vast majority of his articles. There are several dozen extremely active Royals message boards and blogs out there. Maybe he should do a little research next time.

Spread the word that Murray Chass is truly an awful sports writer who has no clue what he's talking about.

Some helpful links for Murray Chass, the moron:

http://royalsreview.com/
http://royalboard.com/
http://royalmania.com/
http://royals.scout.com/
http://610sports.com/
http://lighthittinginfielder.com/

I'm proud of my contributions to each of these fine websites.

Oh, and....

http://royalsnation.proboards62.com/
http://theroyaltreatment.blogspot.com/

If anyone wishes to read an e-mail that I sent to Chass, e-mail me or respond here.

Murray Chass.

MORON.

Teahen Thoughts

2009-01-26T06:46:00.001-06:00

Mark Teahen moves to second base… I like it – I think.

Let’s start with this and get it out of the way: The Royals are to blame for the disaster Teahen has become in respect to the Beltran trade. If the move to second base is completed, Teahen would have played at first, second and third base, all three outfield positions and designated hitter for the Royals since Opening Day of 2008. 2008! Asking a guy to help you forget about Carlos Beltran and not give him a position is very difficult to ask of a guy.

It is clear what Dayton Moore’s plan was going into 2009. He wanted Rafel Furcal so he could move Aviles to second and have a couple guys on the bench to fill in when necessary. It is also suddenly clear why Moore saw Furcal as the “only guy I would go to ownership for to get more money” because there was literally nothing out there in terms of middle infielders. Moore was hesitant to trade prospects for a middle infielder when a projected everyday second baseman is a season or two away. Signing Furcal wasn’t an option, but the only option. Furcal not signing threw the Royals through a middle infield loop and now you can see why Teahen is “more valuable to us than he ever has been” according to Moore.

***

The negatives of this move are obvious: It is a completely new position for Teahen (again), his size for the position is gigantic (but not unheard of – see: Alexei Ramirez) and turning the double play is one of the more difficult things to do in baseball.

But if you look at it this way, the Royals really do not have a true “defensive second baseman” on their roster. Yeah, they have guys who play second base, but none of them with such defensive excellence that it would be utterly foolish not to play him. The Royals options outside of Teahen are as follows:

Alberto Callaspo: Has never played a full big league season, has no power and has off-field issues.
Estaban German: Cannot play a full season and maintain production (see: 2007 season).
Willie Bloomquist: Has never played a full season.
Mike Aviles: Is currently slated at short stop.
Tony Pena Jr.: Can’t hit.

Throw in that the Royals are full in the outfield and at first base and there really is nowhere for Teahen to play. The Royals have nothing to lose here.

And let’s also consider Teahen’s value as an outfielder is next to nothing on the trade market. The Royals, with all of their maneuvering, have managed to not set a value on Teahen high enough to get anything for him. If Teahen can become a steady second baseman with an above average bat for the position, he could not only establish a high value on the trade market but also keep the Royals from rushing prospects like Johnny Giavotella.

***

Statistically, Teahen projects as a middle of the road second baseman.* Behind the Chase Utley’s, Ian Kinsler’s, Dustin Pedroia’s and Brian Roberts’ of the OPS world, but ahead of guys like Brandon Phillips (minus the 20-plus home runs).

*Bill James’ projections were used.

Something else to consider is Teahen is not going to be asked to hit 25 to 30 home runs this year. That burden will fall on Jose Guillen, Mike Jacobs and Alex Gordon. Hopefully, the more laid back approach will see a decrease in strikeouts and more extra base hits for Teahen. This may bump him up in the statistical rankings for second basemen.

Teahen always seemed to me like he would be a great two- or seven-hole hitter. He’s a good OBP guy (minus his lousy 2008 season) and runs the bases very well. To me, the Royals have three of those types this year – guys who get on base, hit for extra bases and run the bases well – in David DeJesus, Coco Crisp and Teahen. And without even discussing the x-factors that are Mike Aviles and Billy Butler, the Royals offense could be much improved

So, looking at it through that spectrum, I’m really excited about the possible move of Teahen to second base. And more importantly, Teahen seems to be excited about it too. The last few seasons, when the Royals were shifting him around the outfield, Teahen had several of those generic, “Whatever helps the team, I’ll do it” quotes. But, even when read, those statements always seemed to have that begrudging tinge about it – the “I really don’t want to do this, but I have no choice” aura.

But reading Sam Mellinger’s article, it almost seemed like Teahen was excited about the prospects of returning to the infield.

“I like being on the infield, I like being in the action,” Teahen said. “If second base gets me there and gets me in the lineup every day, I’ll do everything I can.”

There’s an urgency there – a desperate energy mixed with excitement about being “in the action.” It is like he’s finally returning home or something. Teahen knows he has to make this work, which makes me think that it will. He doesn’t have a lot of shots left.

My Awards Night/FanFest Experience

2009-01-19T01:59:00.002-06:00

I attended the Royals Awards Banquet Friday evening, and it was a very well organized event. I received autographs from (I’ll just list them)

Joakim Soria, Kevin Seitzer, Trey Hillman, Dayton Moore, Zack Greinke, Frank White, Mike Aviles, Jeff Bianchi, Daniel Cortes, Toby Cook

…on one baseball. Not to gloat, haha.

I had extended conversations with 610 Sports analyst Greg Schaum (I sat next to him). I also discussed the team at some length with Dayton Moore, and said a few (considerate!) words to Hillman, Greinke, and Daniel Cortes.

To expand upon the above comments, I discussed the Bloomquist signing, a possible push toward signing Andruw Jones, and a couple other topics with Dayton Moore this evening.

- He claims that Bloomquist’s clubhouse character played a significant portion of his acquisition of the former Seattle player. He says that the character will rub off positively on Alex Gordon. Say what you will, folks….., I’m just relaying the information.

I also asked him about a possible pursuit of Andruw Jones, and he said they were comfortable with the current outfield.

I told him I’m excited about players within our farm system on the verge of MLB status, such as Kila Ka’aihue and Carlos Rosa. He agreed with me when I stated Rosa could be a top-flight setup man but admitted health was a concern ("he needs to stay healthy")

He also seemed positive about his acquisitions Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp, going out of his way to mention them.

Also, I was holding an autographed baseball, and asked him to sign the baseball. I said that I had been waiting and my fingers were getting tired trying to avoid the ink placed on the now ultra-valuable baseball (because of the players he acquired). He smiled and patted me on the shoulder. That was my comic relief for the evening.

(I wonder if he recognized me as that blogger on Royals Nation and the Royals blogosphere who has practically obsessed over every one of his personnel decisions? Something in me felt that he did…..)

- Also, I received Zack Greinke’s autograph, and mentioned the high tension from his mid-to-late inning outings in 2007. He didn’t really say a word, but just nodded in agreement to what I was saying. (I mentioned that it felt odd asking for an autograph of a player approximately two years older than me).

- I met and talked with Daniel Cortes (Royals #3 Prospect) for awhile. We discussed somewhat briefly his Red Bull commitment from several years ago, and he asked me where I played, or used to play. I told him that I was a pitcher, but nowhere near his caliber (which is why he’s playing for the NWA Naturals and I have a part-time computer hobby).

- Zack Greinke’s girlfriend. Kila Ka’aihue’s wife. Mike Aviles’ fiancee. Wooooowwww.

- Greg Schaum sat next to me the entire evening. We discussed many things at great length. That’s a fairly broad statement, but we made notes throughout the event, talking about the singing (which I felt was unnecessary) and just the event in general.

- I got Trey Hillman’s autograph. He told me that he kept his facial hair the entire offseason. I just wished him a general ‘good luck’ on next season.

- When Soria was signing my autograph, I asked him to write "Joakim. Soria" on the baseball. My obvious (funny) joke of the evening….he laughed.

- I told Frank White "it must be a hard life" after he had continuously tried to leave the building but kept getting hounded for autographs and talking. What a classy guy.

- I met Steve Stewart, Ryan LeFebvre, and saw Mike Sweeney up close at the event, as well. Steve Stewart actually went out of his way to shake my hand.

- I also got Jeff Bianchi’s autograph, and we exchanged a few words. He seems like a genuinely nice guy.

Anyway, those are my (brief) notes from that event.

I attended the Royals caravan last week in Columbia, MO and received autographs from Denny Matthews, Joakim Soria, Billy Butler, Kevin Seitzer, and Willie Wilson on one baseball. Hooray! (Soria and Seitzer would of course be repeated two days later).

My FanFest experience was rather brief. I posted these sentiments over at Royals Nation. I only stayed in the center for roughly an hour. I originally was going to help usher players to the 610 booth, but when I arrived I discovered that the minor 'duty' was no longer available. Funny how I've become the intern, although I'm not technically an 'intern' (yet).
Anyway, I don't regret paying the $14. The prices seemed a bit steep at first, but then considering it's supposed to be an all-day event, it wasn't too bad. I'm of a different mindset, though. If I have to wait in line for more than 15 minutes or so at a time, I usually consider the endeavor a waste of time (which is why I don't attend theme parks often). So, basically, I ordered a cappuccino refreshment, and snapped a few dozen photographs of the event. I also stopped by the booths and picked up some giveaway material, including a few Northwest Arkansas Naturals and Omaha Royals baseball cards and gear.
All in all, it's a spectacular event for families, and for the most part action-packed, but not for older adults. It really pales in comparison to the awards banquet, where you get to meet players firsthand, get tons of autographs without waiting in line, and hear speeches and actually discuss baseball with people at the "dinner table." I'm 22 and hence don't have small children, so I'm not the obvious targeted demographic of the group. Be prepared to wait in line, though. My God, the lines are ridiculous.....

The full picture archive can be found here and here. Enjoy!

Thanks, but goodbye.

2009-01-17T01:28:00.004-06:00

Thank you Royals Nation. I extend to you my sincerest thank you for letting me write for this blog (even though I only did 2 or 3 times last summer).

But today I've decided to start my own blog where i'll be able to say and do anything I want.

If anyone wants to read it from time to time it will be located at

http://haplessroyals.blogspot.com/

Thank you to everyone, and I wish you all the best. Some of the best Royals fans in the world post on this site and your forum Royals Nation.

Odds 'N' Ends

2009-01-14T01:13:00.003-06:00

This week and weekend promises plenty of adventure in Royal-land. For one, I plan on attending at least one Royals Caravan event: in fact, I'll probably attend the Wednesday session in Butler, MO.

Also, I'm attending Awards Night this Friday. Plenty of pictures are promised.

Furthermore, FanFest is this weekend at the Overland Park Convention Center. Pictures are promised.

Here are questions that I would never be allowed to ask Dayton Moore:
- To what extent do you use statistical analysis in the organization
- Kyle Farnsworth to 2 guaranteed years. Why?
- Alex Gordon 7th in the lineup????!!!!

I have given Moore criticism where I feel it's due, but he's nonetheless an intriguing G.M. to follow. His old-school methodology just might work. And, well, it's not like I'm hanging up my Royal cleats anytime soon. In fact, I'm becoming a bigger and bigger fan every single day (no, not weight-wise....in fact, exactly the opposite at times!)

It appears some message board-ites loathe the idea of blogs. Who knew?

In the meantime, please visit TRT's sister site, Royals Nation. All-Time MLB Player Survivor is still happening in General Discussion.

In the meantime, the Royals invited five more Minor Leaguers to Spring Training camp. I provided a short analysis on the players at my site.

3 of these five players seem like filler types, which is perfectly acceptable to me. One is a possible future backup MLB catcher, and two more could eventually provide value on the bench, I think.

Clark is a definite filler type - really more of a bullpen catcher.
Howell's absolute upside is that of an easily replaceable MLB backup catcher. 25-years old just entering the Texas League? Hmmmm....
Suomi is organizational filler.
Duarte could be a 4th outfielder/pinch-runner type at the MLB level. Some isolated power...not a lot of on-base ability.
Robinson is intriguing because of his speed and defense. Definitely seems like a Moore guy. I'm not at all sold on him. He's an excellent athlete who can run well, but at this point he is Willie Mayes Hayes stuck in preseason batting practice mode in the movie Major League. The upside is obviously there. I project a Joey Gathright type career for him.

Cheers! Looking forward to sharing my FanFest/Caravan/Awards Night experiences with "Royals Nation" - both visually and verbally!!!

My Current Perception Of 'The Boss' (no...the other one)

2009-01-12T22:55:00.003-06:00

Here is a copy of what I posted over on Royals Corner.

I feel the Willie Bloomquist signing has helped solidify my perception of Moore. He's very much a traditional baseball man, not too enthralled by sabermetrics and other advanced statistics, but willing to dabble in them - to an extent - in acquiring talent.

He is very much traditional, as I mentioned. He likes raw talent in the draft - high schoolers with potentially tremendous upside. He likes to gamble in the draft.

He thinks clubhouse chemistry matters. He has gone on record stating this numerous times. I don't feel he wants to load the clubhouse with 'nice' guys, but potential 'impact' guys like Jose Guillen. People who will shake the clubhouse up, or generate an interesting (non-tense) one, nonetheless.

He likes speed and raw athleticism. In terms of statistics, he thinks the timing for 400-meter dash or the timing from home to first base is extremely important.

Defense matters. If a guy has good range to his left or right, good hands, and good instincts, it definitely matters, regardless of what his FRAA or UZR/150 shows.

Every move is carefully considered. Moore and other front office members gather around a table, watch extensive videos of that player, share comments regarding the player, and then arrive at a conclusion regarding where to go with that particular player.

Makeup is extremely important, as a pitcher. The pitcher has to have command of more than one pitch. Ambiorix Burgos and Mike MacDougal-types, pitchers with raw tools - height, tremendous stuff, occasional dominance - are emphasized less and pitchers like Kyle Davies, with a fairly solid couple pitches and a good makeup with clean mechanics, are emphasized greater.

Offense matters, too, though. Power is important, but on-base percentage only matters vitally with a couple spots in the lineup. #s 3-9 are responsible for driving runners in, and making sure they make contact on any pitches in or near the strike zone. OBP is slightly overrated. Speed is an important element of offense, though. Slap-hitters - guys who can hit .280 - are emphasized more and raw OBP/pitches-per-plate-appearance and other advanced statistics are emphasized less.

Pitching is the currency of baseball. If you develop pitching, and then if that pitching doesn't quite fit into the future mold, you can trade them more conveniently and have a greater pool of players (in return) to choose from. Relievers *are* very much tradeable and replaceable - or at least semi-replaceable - commodities. The perception of a multi-million making 'closer' is somewhat overrated, but to have a lights out pitcher in the ninth inning is still vital. Good pitchers of any caliber can easily be developed, and can be replaced at any cost.

Dayton is a traditional baseball man, which can have positives and negatives. He seems to grasp several concepts (i.e. drafting, bullpen handling, OBP at the top, defense [which is sort of the new 'OBP in terms of baseball, in terms of being undervalued - although I'm not 100% sure Moore is aware of this). On the contrast, he needs a little help grasping other concepts (i.e. replacement value, the importance of on-base percentage, college players are important as well).

This team is resembling a throwback team more and more. Such a method of establishing a team could work....look at the Braves, Twins, and current Angels. Granted, some of those teams have greater budgets than others. I think Moore carefully executes each move and isn't rash, by any means, in personnel decisions. He has built a solid front office with experienced and talented baseball men; although most are probably men who hold a more traditional view on how to evaluate talent. He's professional - runs a tight ship, and holds personnel and management accountable.

I think in Hillman he found a manager who agrees with him on many of these issues. Hillman isn't by any means rigidly old-school - he shows willing open-mindedness toward on-base percentage and the problems with bunting - but doesn't abandon many traditional old school methods (run! run! run! the closer should only be used in the ninth inning, etc.). Luckily for Hillman, many, many managers follow a similar method of thinking. Several G.M.'s follow a similar method of thinking as Moore; Tony Reagins, Doug Melvin, and Terry Ryan come to mind instantly. With Moore, fewer G.M.'s share a similar line of thinking, but enough to make the competition interesting.

Any thoughts?

NOTE: Also, on message boards, I've never understood why these folks never bother to argue with the poster they disagree with. They just '1-star' the post, conveniently, and move on. It happened awhile ago when I featured 'karma' on my website, or where you could 'exalt' and 'smite' somebody. A person was excessively 'smiting' people, and never bothered to reveal their identity or actually argue the point. Ridiculous.

Bloomquist in K.C.? Stop The Whining!

2009-01-11T02:39:00.003-06:00

Here is an assessment of the 2-year/$3MM contract Willie Bloomquist agreed to on an early Friday morning.

Advantages:
- Bloomquist can play a multitude of different positions - some better than others. Basically, he can ably play every position except catcher and pitcher - a pretty valuable asset from the bench
- The Bill James and Marcel projections don't reveal terrible #s for an essential middle infield backup for 2009
- We have enough worthwhile candidates for starter spots that Bloomquist can be safely stowed on the bench

Disadvantages:

- It's a two-year contract. I have to think that a one-year deal, or at least a 1 year deal with an option could have been available. Willie Bloomquist is not more valuable in 2008-9 than Miguel Olivo was in 2007-8.
- The formidable possibility remains that Bloomquist unseats Alberto Callaspo (and, to a much lesser degree, Mike Aviles) for the starting role sometime sooner in 2009. That would be a mistake. He doesn't possess nearly the upside Callaspo does, defense included. (Callaspo is a .300/.360/.380 hitter, at best, which is very good for a 2B.

I think the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, but only narrowly. A one-year deal for Bloomquist certainly would have been a better move than 1-year for Eckstein or Counsell, but a 2-year? Hmmmm.....management needs to handle Bloomquist correctly.

I think Bloomquist is a worthwhile signing....it makes sense. But why the second year, Dayton? Although I'm encouraged by his OBP last year (.377), I'm almost entirely convinced it's an outlier. He'll likely return to his .265/.330/.340 line next year. For the money, and coupled with his ability to play an above average middle infield, and capability of playing five other positions in a pinch (including center field), I think it's an understandable move.

A note to the blogosphere, though. I understand your point that potentially bad moves can add up, preventing us to land Vladimir Guerrero to a 6-year/$140MM deal in 2012, but for now, it's a worthwhile signing. In the end, it's David Glass' problem, not mine. Overall, I'd give the offseason a C or C-. Pretty significantly below average, but certainly nothing to proclaim Doomsday over.

In other news, is anyone attending FanFest next weekend? I have posted regarding this matter over on RN's General Discussion area. I plan on attending on Saturday and taking plenty of pictures. Nonetheless, I do feel a bit smited, as the event is now a 30 minute drive (and 15 minute park+walk time) in my own freaking hometown, as a Jackson County taxpayer who is helping several hundred thousand others commit to a huge renovation project to a perennial losing ballclub. Also - my father's season tickets to the Club Level seating have now been deemed officially unrenewable by the ballclub. They promised seating changes, but they haven't fulfilled them. Wow! I'm beginning to think we should have voted against the stadium renovation initiative. Way to go, ballclub. Anyway, rant over. As for FanFest itself....apparently Ross Gload, Jimmy Gobble, and Esteban German will not be present at the occasion. Trade bait, anyone?

For more details on the players who will be present at the event, here is the official page. Pictures to come! Promise!

Belated Happy New Year! (Cheers To Trey Hillman's Lineup!)

2009-01-04T21:03:00.002-06:00

Question #1: Is it rude to wish a Happy New Year to Royals Nation almost five days too late?

Question #2: Is a 'Belated Happy New Year' even possible?

Some conundrums for your mental pleasure on this Sunday night. Nonetheless, I hope everyone had an awesome, party-hardy New Years for '09.

I understand the difference between the best assembled and worst assembled lineups for any group of nine players is but a few dozen runs, but is the lineup below seriously the best Trey Hillman can conjure up for the 2009 season? I'm going to nitpick what I feel is incorrect about the lineup, and how I feel our manager is slightly misguided in his thinking. Granted, his thinking is still rather dubious. I think he understands the importance of OBP, but doesn't exactly know which old school statistics not to implement.

Keep in mind Hillman's original reveal of a likely 2009 lineup is rather dated, but it manifested itself once again in Dick Kaegel's looking forward of (to?) 2009.

CF	Coco Crisp
SS	Mike Aviles
LF	David DeJesus
RF	Jose Guillen
1B	Mike Jacobs
DH	Billy Butler
3B	Alex Gordon
C	Miguel Olivo
2B	Alberto Callaspo

1. Crisp
Why? Because of his lifetime .331 OBP, a full 5 points below the league average during that time span? Because of his mediocre 72.9% career stolen base percentage? Because of his negative career WPA, which would almost certainly be anti-progressive in the leadoff spot of a lineup seeking to vastly improve from its paltry 691-run performance in 2009? He may 'make things happen' and be somewhat inefficiently 'fast', but it doesn't mean he should bat leadoff on any respectable squad. On the contrast, #2 hitter wouldn't be a terrible option, since OBP isn't as dramatically important in that spot as it is in the #1 slot and the #s 3-7 slots.

2. Aviles
I understand this decision. Aviles performed respectably in the 2-hole last season, hitting .293/.329/.457. However, that total doesn't resemble his balmy yearly totals (122 SOPS+), and he was batting mostly between two of the team OBP leaders for last year, Dave DeJesus and Alex Gordon.

3. DeJesus
David is an asset to a team like the Royals. Good contact ability, excellent patience, and a team-friendly contract. However, I would be more inclined to pencil him into the leadoff slot, mostly because, well.....he's a true leadoff hitter. I'm afraid the organization views his lack of speed as a deterrent against placing him in that role. Such a mentality isn't proper evaluation of your club's resources. He gets on base and runs the bases reasonably well (although, granted, his career SB% is an atrocious 56%).

4. Guillen
The reigning team leader in outs enters the cleanup spot, once again. Look, I supported the Guillen contract at the time, but to place such a horribly low OBP in the cleanup spot doesn't make sense. I hope Hillman isn't too enthralled by Guillen's circumstantial HR and RBI totals, again. I *do* feel Guillen will become much less hack-tastic in 2009, mostly because a) he does have better protection in the lineup, and b) I really do feel his low BA-OBP split of 2008 was an abberation. The team would serve itself better placing either Jacobs, Gordon, or Butler in this role, at the very least. Maybe the organization doesn't feel inclined to piss off the veteran, but then irrational bias toward vets over youngsters has been hindering teams' success for decades. It would best serve the Royals to escape such a mentality, but that's another story.

5. Jacobs
I'm more supportive of the Jacobs trade than most members of the Royals blogosphere. I feel his low BABIP total of 2008 (.260, which didn't correspond with his not terribly low LD% of 17.6) was an abberation, and a .277/.335/.470 performance next year is a safe bet. In our lineup, an argument could be made that he best fits our #5 slot. I feel the Royals should pencil a 'DH' next to Jacobs' name instead of a '1B', but that's another story. (Yes, Butler has good hands at first, and while that doesn't cover up his atrocious agility, it makes him a better fit at the corner slot than Jacobs...also keep in mind Jacobs has a -26 FRAA, while Billy has a career -0.9. Time accrued is, of course, important, but it isn't as if Butler's a complete downgrade).

6. Butler
I agree, but only to an extent. It is sensible, taken alone, to place Butler in this slot. By virtually all standards of evaluation, he underachieved last season, and it might make sense to place the 22-year old in a complementary role rather than a role of centerpiece (cleanup spot). However, I still would rather see Butler manning the #4 or #5 slot than Guillen or Jacobs. (And let Butler stand at 1B!)

7. Gordon
Ummmmm....no. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. No. Gordon had the second highest OBP for a full-time player last season, and the third highest VORP (19.7) behind DeJesus (29.1) and Aviles (34.5), who sat in the #1 and #2 slots last year, respectively. Placing less pressure on the kid makes zero sense when his OBP is higher than anyone else in this lineup who played an entire season (sans DeJesus). Bat Gordon third.

8. Olivo
I would almost rather J.R. House or Brayan Pena assume leading catching duties, given that they are bound to OBP much higher than Olivo for 2009. Olivo OBP'ed .278 last year, and had a .251 EqA. Olivo can throw runners out effectively, hit lefties with power, and can run the bases reasonably fast - and well, but he shouldn't start, in my opinion. However, if he did, it would probably make best sense to place *him* in the #8 slot.

9. Callaspo
#2 or #7 probably makes more sense, in this lineup (and possibly even #1), but I'll give Trey Hillman a pass, basing my agreement on the now commonly well regarded notion that the #9 man should serve as a secondary leadoff man.

So, in essence, grading Hillman's selections:

#1. D+
#2. B+
#3. C
#4. D
#5. C+
#6. C+
#7. F
#8. C (A- on placement / D- on selection)
#9. B
Overall: D+ (a well below average lineup - C+ being average)

Here is my lineup for 2009:

1. DeJesus, LF
2. Aviles, SS
3. Gordon, 3B
4. Butler, DH
5. Jacobs, 1B
6. Guillen, RF
7. Callaspo, C
8. Crisp, CF
9. Pena, C

....and choosing among these nine players, I would simply move Crisp to the 9-hole and replace Pena with Olivo and move him to the 8-hole.

The 2009 Dempsey Projections

2008-12-30T16:35:00.000-06:00

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls of all ages....

The 2009 first annual 'Dempsey' projections are now in. Below are my projections for every Royals player in 2009. My apologies to fellow family message boarders lelandinkc and RoyalLoyal, who (ironically?) share the same last name.

Keep in mind that this list isn't strictly scientific. I incorporated a number of elements in my nonscientific projections - age, body type, BABIP/LD% (or general luck) from the previous year, as well as other important factors like league and ballpark switching, and protection in the lineup.

I'm not pretending the accuracy of this list will mirror that of B.P. or Bill James. I maintain what some fans may regard as pessimism or optimism with certain players.

Anyway, you get the idea. Here are my projections for 2009, adjusted for playing time allocation.

C - John Buck .232/.297/.386, 189 AB, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS
C - Brayan Pena .275/.339/.408, 315 AB, 3 HR, 37 RBI, 2/1 SB/CS
C - Miguel Olivo (traded in June) .261/.283/.395, 102 AB, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 3/1 SB/CS
C - J.R. House .287/.361/.409, 52 AB, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS
1B - Mike Jacobs .271/.329/.476, 497 AB, 22 HR, 87 RBI, 1/0 SB/CS
1B - Kila Kaaihue .266/.367/.472, 162 AB, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS
1B - Ross Gload .291/.318/.377, 85 AB, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS
1B - Mike Stodolka .375/.444/.375, 7 AB, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS
2B - Alberto Callaspo .289/.347/.362, 523 AB, 2 HR, 47 RBI, 2/3 SB/CS
2B - Esteban German .276/.349/.389, 140 AB, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 2/0 SB/CS
2B - Jerry Hairston (F.A. acquisition) .250/.322/.395, 127 AB, 0 HR, 12 RBI, 2/1 SB/CS
SS - Mike Aviles .281/.324/.446, 560 AB, 12 HR, 59 RBI, 6/3 SB/CS
SS - Tony Pena .218/.237/.286, 72 AB, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1/0 SB/CS
3B - Alex Gordon .267/.361/.469, 601 AB, 23 HR, 87 RBI, 13/3 SB/CS
3B - Ed Lucas (LONG shot, but I'm daring here) .250/.297/.412, 17 AB, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS
LF - David DeJesus .290/.367/.408, 553 AB, 8 HR, 71 RBI, 7/3 SB/CS
LF - Chris Lubanski .182/.182/.273, 11 AB, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS
CF - Coco Crisp .262/.329/.386, 576 AB, 8 HR, 56 RBI, 26/10 SB/CS
CF - Mitch Maier .271/.322/.390, 152 AB, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3/2 SB/CS
RF - Jose Guillen .274/.325/.462, 429 AB, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 3/4 SB/CS
RF - Shane Costa .283/.349/.417, 182 AB, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 2/0 SB/CS
DH - Billy Butler .285/.351/.433, 490 AB, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 0/0 SB/CS

SP - Zack Greinke 33 GS/33 G, 16-10, 3.25 ERA, 216.1 IP, 56 BB, 172 K
SP - Gil Meche 29 GS/29 G, 11-12, 4.36 ERA, 172.0 IP, 52 BB, 123 K
SP - Luke Hochevar 28 GS/28 G, 9-11, 4.69 ERA, 183.2 IP, 62 BB, 110 K
SP - Kyle Davies 26 GS/30 G, 12-7, 4.77 ERA, 165.0 IP, 67 BB, 113 K
SP - Brian Bannister 15 GS/16 G, 6-9, 5.18 ERA, 92.2 IP, 29 BB, 49 K
SP - Sean Marshall (why not? - acquired midseason) 17 GS/17 G, 4-6, 4.60 ERA, 102.0 IP, 43 BB, 76 K
RP - John Bale 43 G, 5-5, 4.30 ERA, 52.1 IP, 23 BB, 40 K
RP - Carlos Rosa 6 GS, 41 G, 4-2, 3.18 ERA, 45.1 IP, 14 BB, 33 K
RP - Robinson Tejeda 50 G, 3-4, 3.85 ERA, 61.0 IP, 29 BB, 50 K
RP - Kyle Farnsworth 61 G, 5-2, 4.52 ERA, 67.2 IP, 35 BB, 60 K
RP - Ron Mahay 53 G, 2-1, 3.86 ERA, 57.0 IP, 22 BB, 36 K
RP - Jimmy Gobble 9 G, 1-0, 4.85 ERA, 19.2 IP, 8 BB, 12 K
RP - Horacio Ramirez 6 GS/41 G, 2-1, 5.31 ERA, 32.1 IP, 16 BB, 19 K
RP - Julio Cesar Pimentel 5 G, 1-0, 3.88 ERA, 6.2 IP, 3 BB, 3 K
RP - Devon Lowery 33 G, 2-2, 5.63 ERA, 35.2 IP, 14 BB, 23 K
RP - Doug Waechter 26 G, 1-3, 6.13 ERA, 23.0 IP, 11 BB, 14 K
RP - Franquelis Osoria 15 G, 0-0, 7.20 ERA, 22.1 IP, 14 BB, 14 K
RP - Joakim Soria 61 G, 2-4, 2.39 ERA, 66.2 IP, 15 BB, 72 K, 45 SV/51 SVOPP
RP - Dusty Hughes 4 G, 0-0, 7.25 ERA, 3.2 IP, 1 BB, 3 K
RP - Yasuhiko Yabuta 9 G, 1-0, 5.43 ERA, 16.0 IP, 4 BB, 7 K

*Ryan Shealy claimed off waivers in Spring Training, and traded for a Player to be Named.
*Jerry Hairston, Jr. signed as Free Agent - short 1-year, $2MM or so signing.
*Joel Peralta traded for a Minor Leaguer during Spring Training.
*Mark Teahen traded for Minor League pitcher in Spring Training.

Scouting Report On......Errr....Myself

2008-12-29T23:46:00.003-06:00

Apologies about the twelve day break between posts. I was visiting family in Springfield, vacationing in New Or-LEANS, and, finally, heartbroken without a computer - if for merely one day - in Kansas City. Either way, I recently wasted about ten minutes and posted a scouting report for....myself.....over on - where else? - Scout.com/Royals Corner message board. Props to RC poster RoyalsRetro for beginning this intriguing post topic. (Retro drew some inspiration from Minor League blogger extraordinaire John Sickels).

Without further ado, here is a scouting report for your humble The Royal Treatment blogger, Royals Nation.

Keep in mind these pictures are extremely dated. The information may or may not be accurate. For everyone who thought I couldn't hit in high school, shadddup!!!!11

Royals Nation - HS, Pembroke Hill
P / 2B / 3B / COF
Ht: 6'0", Wt: 185

Pitching:
Windup resembles that of Bronson Arroyo; somewhat unconventional and slightly herky-jerky. Fastball 81-83mph., plus-plus changeup, curveball is inconsistent and could use work. Trouble spotting his curveball accurately and trouble with the usual 11-5 break. Changeup works like a charm but batters often roll their bat over on it and loop it just beyond infielders but too shallow for outfielders. Plus-defender with good instincts and accurate arm. Odd release to pitches. Has trouble in the first inning.

Offense:
Spray hitter with very little home run power and limited doubles power. Plate discipline excellent but leads to astronomical BB and K totals....not a great combination with his lack of power. Very little speed not ideal for right-handed hitter. The ultimate streaky hitter. Slumps lead to benching but spurts lead to the occasional batting at the top of the order. Possible #2 hitter. Very selective hitter an advantage with finesse and wild pitchers who rely on strike zone placement. Velocity-oriented pitchers and lefties give RN a difficult time.

Defense:
Plus-defender with decent instincts but mediocre speed and quickness. Not terrific with glove; arm is somewhat inaccurate at 3B. Good instincts and sure-handedness make him best suitable for second base. Mark Grudzielanek-type player without much flash. Difficult plays hard on RN, easy plays are almost always converted. Not tremendous with double-play potential.

Speed/Baserunning:
Little to none, whatsoever. Not a threat to steal, at all. Instincts on basepaths a weakness in his game.

PHS represent! (That's me on the left).

Are you asleep yet?

TRT/RN Confidence Index

2008-12-17T23:00:00.002-06:00

On the sister website to The Royal Treatment, Royals Nation, I submitted a questionnaire based on a series of questions posed, monthly, by Royals Review poster NYRoyal. This questionnaire serves, more or less, as a 'Confidence Index' for posters over at the other website.

Basically, I asked a series of question and asked the posters to submit an answer of how they feel about the questions, ranging from 1 (very pessimistic) to 10 (very optimistic)

Here are the questions and my number values, followed by my explanations. It's important to remember that, for me at least, 5.5 is average.

1. How do you feel about the 2009 Royals?

6

I feel it's been a somewhat disappointing offseason. We've traded two stellar relievers for slightly above average, at best, players. I think the team will struggle with OBP, as the priorities of management, in my opinion, are somewhat flawed. I remain cautiously optimistic that this team will outperform the '07 team, offensively, defensively, and pitching-wise. However, I was expecting more.

2. How do you feel about G.M. Dayton Moore?

6

When we signed Dayton Moore, he was the logical choice at the time. Many G.M.'s regarded Moore as the top General Manager prospect in the game, as he served under G.M.-extraordinaire John Schuerholz under much of Atlanta's incredible 14-year dynasty. He's a good scout and a traditionalist, intelligent 'baseball man.' However, as I mentioned above, his priorities are somewhat flawed. I believe, like most scouts, he overemphasizes certain aspects of the game - speed, defense, and the notion that pitchers serve as 'currency' in baseball, when that isn't entirely true. His strengths, thus far, are finding pitching, notably relief pitching, and he has a keen scout's eye for talent, I think. Of course, this grade is still somewhat preliminary. I'm hoping it will change for the better, and soon.

3. How do you feel about Manager Trey Hillman?

4

He was pitiful, early on, at handling the bullpen, had slow hooks on players such as Tony Pena, Jr., and showed irrational biases toward players like Ross Gload and Brett Tomko. He's a traditionalist - flawed - manager. His lineup selections among the players he *chose* to play did hinder our success (although, keep in mind that poor lineup selection can only hinder a team by a maximum of 40-50 runs). His ridiculous - though preliminary - lineup selection for 2009 - hurt his cause.

4. How do you feel about Owner David Glass?

3

Look, I've made my harsh opinions on Glass crystal clear through a multitude of mediums (how's that for alliteration?) He isn't off the hot seat he placed himself in until we actually begin contending. The progress is there - increased monetary commitments in drafts, no meddling with Moore's personnel decisions, adding a Minor League team, committing to player development, among other minor things. He needs to continue such commitments to even approach a '4' or '5'. Keep in mind that he was a firm '1' for many years before Moore took helm, in June 2006.

5. How do you feel about the 2009 Royals offense?

3

We will struggle with regard to OBP, and slightly less with power, I think. Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs won't be the players Moore thinks they will be. I don't see an awful lot of progression from Butler (although he's young). Crisp will likely be barely above replacement-caliber in center field, unfortunately. If they continue to play Gload, Pena, and Olivo/Buck, and not show a bold open-minded commitment to the Kila Kaaihues of the world, then they're in for an awful lot of trouble. Keep in mind that signing Adam Dunn or another impact bat could raise this score to as high as a '6'.

6. How do you feel about the 2009 Royals pitching?

8

I'm probably a little irrationally biased toward our pitching staff. I haven't viewed acquiring an impact starting pitcher (Lowe? Burnett? Sheets?) at all a pressing issue, this offseason. I see Hochevar making strides and benefitting from better luck and a better defense (Crisp, DeJesus in LF, expected improvement at 3B in Gordon, a healthy Guillen in RF). I see Bannister leveling out his BABIP and gravitating toward his XFIP with an ERA around 5. I see Davies benefitting as a borderline #3 with a plus-curveball and plus-changeup. I see Meche maintaining, generally, his 2007/8 performance. And Greinke is a stud. Although signing Farnsworth was a poor decision, I think, and using Horacio Ramirez as a starter would be an irrational move, I think we have plenty of cheap bullpen options such as Robinson Tejeda, Julio Cesar Pimentel, Carlos Rosa, Doug Waechter, John Bale, the LOOGY-Jimmy Gobble, not to mention prominent (paid) relievers like Ron Mahay and Joakim Soria.

Greinke - 3.2 ERA
Meche - 4.1 ERA
Davies - 4.5 ERA
Hochevar - 4.5 ERA
Bannister - 5 ERA

....It's probably not great, but consider the average #s teams net from the 4 and 5 slots, and the fact that we can expect health from all 5 options (in the past two seasons, only one of these pitchers has suffered from any sort of extended injury) and it's the makings of a solid rotation. Keep in mind my estimates are conservative. The upside here is still pretty strong, I think.

7. How do you feel about the 2009 Royals defense?

6

I'm a bit worried that Moore uses his "scout's eye" to his disadvantage, sometimes. Will Carroll from B.P. has reported that a frenzy has taken place in a number of organizations to emphasize, in a Moneyball-fashion, defense. According to Carroll, only the organizations have gotten access to important defensive numbers. I hope Moore & Co. have taken notice, but something tells me that they only dabble in advanced statistics. I think the Royals will benefit from having an entire year of Aviles in the middle infielder (although his defensive numbers will diminish, somewhat, I think), an improved Gordon at 3B (yes, I trust the scouts and believe the franchise centerpiece will improve), and having a much-improved outfield (the 2008 Baseball Prospectus edition compared Crisp's defense to that of Andruw Jones in his prime, and said we can expect him to be a plus-defender each year, if not injured). DeJesus will also improve defensively, spending the entire year in left. I think Guillen will improve a bit in right field. I'm still worried about catcher, first base, and second base. There's a realistic chance Jacobs' -20 glove will be granted entirely too much time at 1B and Guillen's defensive ability will actually decrease in right field with age. Callaspo at second is obviously a problem, and that is why Moore has aggressively pursued other middle-infield options (Furcal).

8. How do you feel about the 2009 Royals Minor League system?

7

I'm going to keep my explanations here somewhat short, since I have rambled in response to previous questions. I like our Minor League development team. Hey, the 2008 draft has the potential to be historically great. We have a legitimate Minor League system, and I'm looking forward to watching the Hosmers, Cortes's, and Moustakas's prosper, while rooting for lower-end top prospects with legitimate upside (David Lough, Daniel Gutierrez, and Jason Taylor). I think a similiarly successful 2009 draft could boost this score to a '9' or, dare I say it, '10'.

9. How would you rank Dayton Moore's offseason performance?

4

I recently gave Moore a '4', but the score might be raised if his commitments to 4 Minor League Spring Training invites yield any positive performance at the Big-league level. I'm not counting on it, and I'm still a bit disappointed by the trades (Ramirez-for-Crisp, Nunez-for-Jacobs) and the high-monetary acquisitions (Farnsworth). His minor moves, such as signing players like Waechter, catcher J.R. House, and re-signing John Bale on the cheap, really carry his score, I think. I'm holding my breath for his first true impact acquisition. We now sit at 39 men on the 40 man roster. I'm crossing my fingers.

10. How do you feel about the future of the Kansas City Royals?

7

I'm cautiously optimistic. I doubt we'll ever return to years of 100-loss performances like we did under Baird, but I must pose this worthwhile question: will we contend - or become another Oakland Athletics or Minnesota Twins - with tremendous monetary and market-size disadvantages? Will we become another Cleveland Indians, or even compete intermittently like the Marlins? Ownership commitment must reign consistent, and Moore must continue to hit draft after draft after draft. And even then....a little luck can go a long way.

For the bonus questions provided below, I'll just provide my numerical responses. We'll let those do the talkin'.

Bonus questions:

How many games will Ross Gload play in 2009?
37

How many games will Kila Ka'aihue play in 2009?
53

Will the Royals acquire another Free Agent this offseason? If so, whom?
Yes, but no impact-signing

How many games will the Royals win in 2009?
83

Former Royals In Baseball

2008-12-15T00:29:00.003-06:00

The other day, I compiled a final list of former Royals throughout baseball. If you have any information about some of the obscure players on this list (Steve Andrade? Fernando Cortez?), then feel free to send me an e-mail or comment on this site. Thanks to former site contributor Ray W, who compiled an in-depth analysis entering the 2008-9 offseason over at his blog, Royals On Radio, Etc.

C - Jason LaRue
C - Paul Phillips
C - Paul Bako
C - Gregg Zaun
C - Sal Fasano
1B - Craig Brazell
1B - Doug Mientkiewicz
1B - Mike Sweeney
1B - Matt Stairs
2B - Fernando Cortez
2B - Tony Graffanino
2B - Jason Smith
2B - Ruben Gotay
2B - Donnie Murphy
SS - Angel Berroa
SS - Jeff Keppinger
SS - Andres Blanco
SS - Angel Sanchez
3B - Jose Bautista
3B - Gookie Dawkins
LF - Emil Brown
LF - Justin Huber
LF - Chip Ambres
LF - Matt Diaz
LF - Alexis Gomez
LF - Dee Brown
LF - Raul Ibanez
LF - Endy Chavez
LF - Johnny Damon
CF - Joey Gathright
CF - Carlos Beltran
RF - Jermaine Dye

SP - Brett Tomko
SP - Odalis Perez
SP - Jorge De La Rosa
SP - Billy Buckner
SP - Scott Elarton
SP - Todd Wellemeyer
SP - Luke Hudson
SP - Mark Redman
SP - Runelvys Hernandez
SP - Chris George
SP - Paul Byrd
SP - Jeff Suppan
SP - Miguel Batista
SP - Glendon Rusch

RP - John Bale
RP - Ramon Ramirez
RP - Leo Nunez
RP - Horacio Ramirez
RP - David Riske
RP - Ryan Braun
RP - Octavio Dotel
RP - Denny Bautista
RP - Bobby Keppel
RP - Andrew Sisco
RP - Elmer Dessens
RP - Joe Nelson
RP - Ambiorix Burgos
RP - Scott Dohmann
RP - Adam Bernero
RP - Chris Booker
RP - Kyle Snyder
RP - Mike MacDougal
RP - Steve Andrade
RP - Jose Diaz
RP - D.J. Carrasco
RP - J.P. Howell
RP - Jeremy Affeldt
RP - Shawn Camp
RP - Jonah Bayliss
RP - Nate Field
RP - Dennys Reyes
RP - Rudy Seanez
RP - Ryan Bukvich
RP - Miguel Asencio
RP - Jamey Wright
RP - Les Walrond
RP - Brian Shouse
RP - Chad Durbin
RP - Jose Santiago
RP - Dan Reichert
RP - Tim Byrdak
RP - Jamie Walker
RP - Tom Gordon

In the meantime, let's check some recent Royals quick hits:

- Braves pitcher Chuck James was non-tendered on Friday. Should the Royals seek to acquire the lefty at a (questionable) discount?

- According to Peter Gammons and Steve Phillips at ESPN, the Royals are currently frontrunners in the Rafael Furcal sweepstakes. I hope to read something more substantial, soon.

- The Royals non-tendered John Bale, Joey Gathright, Jason Smith, and Jairo Cuevas. Craig Brown at Royals Authority analyzes the move.

Speaking of Craig Brown, I was obliged to meet him at "Ground Zero" for all Royals radio chatter in Kansas City, the studio (and building) of 610 Sports. I have been obliged to 'quasi-intern' for 610 Royals analyst Greg Schaum, shadowing him on his program, Baseball This Week, every week. Greg writes for the website Light Hitting Infielder. Listen to his most recent program here. (Podcasts of every program are available over at 610 Sports.com).

Rule 5 (or V?) Draft: What To Pursue, What To Pursue

2008-12-10T18:09:00.004-06:00

It's no secret that every Winter Meetings period brings a multitude of rumors - some founded and many completely unfounded - to us bloodthirsty bloggers. What is the latest gossip surrounding Manny Ramirez? Which large-market organization will prepare that bombshell contract for that highly coveted starting pitcher? Will Dick Kaegel visit that sunny, warm southern destination and present Dan Glass with that hard-hitting question surrounding Angel Berroa's socks and Ken Harvey's personal maid?

This Winter Meetings period has been no different. I, for one, am stoked for the Rule 5 draft, which takes place Thursday morning in Las Vegas. Here is a brief look at some Rule 5-eligible players who the Royals can potentially gobble up for bucks on the dollar (and a roster spot devotion). Keep in mind the Royals draft 11th in the Rule 5 draft. Their 11th overall pick is only tentative, of course. Teams who draft above them can opt out of participating, as the Royals did - irrationally, at the time, in my opinion - last year.

By the way, Rule 5 drafts, as a rule (nice pun, RN!), are an excellent opportunity for small to mid-market organizations who have finished with subpar recent results - such as the Royals - to take a cheap gamble on another more talented organization's trash.

Anyway, here are some players eligible for the taking that I would look into, if I were in Dayton Moore's shoes. Thanks, Baseball Analysts.

Ryan Mullins Minnesota

Position: Left-Handed Starter
Born: November 1983
2008 Level: Double-A

A third-round selection out of Vanderbilt University in 2005, Ryan Mullins is a 6'6'' lefty with a fringe fastball and a big-league curveball, which are just the right ingredients for a 2009 MLB LOOGY. His 2008 numbers at Double-A were nothing to write home about: 169 hits allowed in 148.1 innings, 3.58 BB/9, 6.01 K/9, but check out the splits:Left-Handed Batters: .204 AVG, 0.88 WHIP, 1.45 BB/9, 12.8 LD%Right-Handed Batters: .314 AVG, 1.72 WHIP, 4.24 BB/9, 17.9 LD%

Donald Veal Chicago (NL)
Position: Left-Handed Starter
Born: September 1984
2008 Level: Double-A

A former top prospect, Donnie Veal has stagnated at Double-A. In two
seasons at that level, he has allowed 276 hits in 275.2 innings of work. His rates in 2008 were not so good at 5.02 BB/9 and 7.62 K/9. Obviously, his control is lacking but he is a lefty that can consistently throw in the low 90s and he has two solid secondary pitchers: a curveball and change-up. He faced 142 left-handed batters in 2008 and did not allow a home run. His splits suggest he could also have some success as a LOOGY: Left-handed batters hit .221, while right-handed batters hit .290.

James Skelton Detroit
Position: Catcher
Born: October 1985
2008 Level: High-A/Double-A

One of the more quizzical omissions from the 40-man rosters, James Skelton creates flashes of Jesus Flores, whom the Washington Nationals stole from the New York Mets with the sixth overall pick of the 2006 Rule 5 Draft. Flores is now producing just as well for the Nationals as the Mets' big league catchers, and at a much lower cost. The Tigers organization is seriously lacking in prospects and the 40-man roster had room for Skelton. He was originally selected by the Tigers in the 14th round of the 2004 draft out of a California high school. Skelton has hit more than .300 in each of the past three seasons - a rarity for catchers. This past season, he hit .307/.467/.406 in 212 High-A
at-bats and moved up to Double-A and posted a line of .294/.423/.388 in 85 at-bats. There are concerns about Skelton's defence. His is just 5'11'' and 165 lbs - small for a catcher. His arm also lacks strength, but he threw out 43% of base stealers in 2007, and 19 of 54 (35%) at High-A in 2008, followed by nine of 19 (47%) at Double-A. It will be shocking if no one takes a flyer on the left-handed hitting catcher with an excellent eye at the plate and the ability to hit for a high average. The list of clubs that could use catching depth include Toronto, San Diego, Cincinnati, Houston, Chicago (NL), Washington, Florida, Balitmore, Chicago AL, Tampa Bay and Boston.

Jamie Romak Pittsburgh
Position: Outfield
Born: September 1985
2008 Level: High-A/Double-A

The Rule 5 Draft's outfield depth is lacking, but Jamie Romak is an
interesting name. The former Braves prospect was traded to Pittsburgh during the 2007 Adam LaRoche deal and was rated by Baseball America as the Pirates' seventh best prospect entering into 2008. He offers massive power potential but a low batting average. He is still very raw, but the Canadian has intriguing upside. In 2008, he hit .279/.351/.552 with 25 doubles and 18 homers (.272 ISO) in 290 High-A at-bats. Upon a promotion to Double-A, he hit .208/.307/.433 (.225 ISO) in 120 at-bats. He is a huge risk, but if he rebounds in 2009 a club will have a tough timing prying him from Pittsburgh. That said, he struggles with off-speed stuff and could easily become a Quad-A slugger.

TRT Top 20 Prospects For 2009

2008-12-08T23:13:00.003-06:00

It's difficult to believe, but I'm eager to develop and encourage blogging activity and responding, as I'm going to start posting here more often.

Fellow The Royal Treatment posters may disagree with me, and at the risk of sounding a bit pompous, I'll go ahead and submit an official The Royal Treatment Top 20 Royals Prospect list. Since I founded the site, it's probably a necessary evil.

I've organized each prospect by star ranking and have assigned each player a letter grade. I've provided their projected 2009 destination, as well, and estimated time of arrival to the big-leagues. Also provided is a short comment or two about that particular player. Any thoughts?

The Moose heads the first annual TRT prospects list for '09.

1. Mike Moustakas *****, A, A+ Wilmington, ETA: 2011
Legitimate stud who should battle for middle of order by beginning of decade. Plus-plus arm, contact, and power. Likely 3B or COF. Projected line: .300/.360/.500

2. Eric Hosmer *****, A, A Burlington, ETA: 2012
Another All-Star in the making. I see him as a contact hitter, first, and a power hitter, second. 1B or COF.

3. Kila Kaaihue ****1/2, B+, AAA Omaha, ETA: Mid-2009
I'm higher on him than most fellow bloggers. His extraordinary plate discipline and power foundation will pay dividends, soon, I think.

4. Daniel Cortes ****1/2, B+, AAA Omaha, ETA: 2010
#2 starter in the making. Could be in K.C. by September '09.

5. Daniel Duffy ****1/2, B+, A+ Wilmington, ETA: Mid-2011
Left-handed starter reminds me of a Darrell May 2003 version with better stuff. Possible mid 90's stuff but projects as more of a finesse man, for me, at least.

6. Tim Melville ****, B, R+ Idaho Falls, ETA: 2012
The gem of the 2008 draft. He represents the change in draft philosophy for the Royals. Right-hander possesses the entire package, as a pitcher. Possible #2 or #3.

7. Mike Montgomery ****, B, A Burlington, ETA: 2012
Some scouts rank him higher than #7. #3 starter, I think.

8. Carlos Rosa ***1/2, B, MLB Kansas City, ETA: 2009
5-star reliever and 4 1/2-star closer. Plus-plus fastball and slider. I think he'll be Octavio Dotel without the injuries.

9. Daniel Gutierrez ***1/2, B, A+ Wilmington, ETA: Mid-2011
One Royals scout ranked him higher than Cortes on the prospect depth chart. I love his curveball. Possible #2, but needs to build off promising '08.

10. Jason Taylor ***1/2, B-, A+ Wilmington, ETA: Mid-2011
My personal favorite. I'll be rooting for that speed, plate discipline, and power to manifest again next year.

11. Johnny Giavotella ***1/2, B-, A+ Wilmington, ETA: 2011
Gritty second baseman could provide for a little Dustin Pedroia-like excitement in K.C. come '11.

12. Blake Wood ***1/2, B-, AA Northwest Arkansas, ETA: 2011
Mentioned as that 'throw in' prospect for any trade scenario involving MLB-ready vets, it seems. I see Wood as a potential dominant relief pitcher, but likely no better than a fourth starter at the big-league level.

13. Jeff Bianchi ***1/2, C+, AA Northwest Arkansas, ETA: 2011
Rebounded a bit in '09. Really needs to finally show the hype that surrounded him in the '05 draft. Michael Young??!!! More like Michael 'None' until '08, where he displayed a power spike. Let's see if he can build it in NWA this year.

14. Julio Cesar Pimentel ***1/2, C+, AA Northwest Arkansas, ETA: Mid-2010
Groundball-extraordinaire. With his repertoire, I see him as a reliever-first. We'll see.

15. Joe Dickerson ***1/2, C+, AA Northwest Arkansas, ETA: 2011
Needs to continue to hit for power to project as a cornerman prospect.

16. Tyler Sample ***1/2, C+, R+ Idaho Falls, ETA: Mid-2012
Growing pains in '08. He's a long ways off. Tremendous potential. We'll see.

17. Derrick Robinson ***, C+, AA Northwest Arkansas, ETA: 2011
Joey Gathright-lite. Absolutely needs to develop power. My #17 ranking is generous. The organization loves his toolsiness and speed.

18. David Lough ***, C+, A+ Wilmington, ETA: Mid-2011
610 Sports radio personality Greg Schaum loves this corner OF. Under-the-radar prospect if I've ever seen one. Lefty-hitter.

19. Blake Johnson ***, C+, AA Northwest Arkansas, ETA: Mid-2010
Love his curveball and frame. I'm also friends with him on Facebook, and that'll earn extra points, but only for the bottom of this list.

20. Sam Runion ***, C+, A Burlington, ETA: 2012
K-BB troubles in Burlington forced him back to Rookie-ball in '08. Long ways away. Curveball is his best pitch.

Money, Roster Decisions and Rumors

2008-11-25T15:52:00.006-06:00

There has been a lot of talk this offseason about the Royals and their payroll limits. I have heard Dayton make statements that the payroll can be in the $70 - $75 million range. I have also heard reporters and bloggers alike stating that Glass is cheap as he won't allow payroll to be much higher than it was last year which was a little over $58 million. Let's take a look at the current 40 man roster and see how the payroll projects. I am sure the roster will continue to change this offseason but the only change I am making today is leaving Jason Smith off the roster and putting in his place a Rule V pick. All salaries are shown in millions.

Jose Guille - $12
Gil Meche - $11
Coco Crisp - $5.75
Ron Mahay - $4
David DeJesus - $3.6
Zach Greinke* - $4
Mike Jacobs* - $3.3
Mark Teahen* - $3
John Buck* - $2.8
Miguel Olivo - $2.7
John Bale* - $2.2
Luke Hochevar - $1.2
Jimmy Gobble* - $1.5
Ross Gload - $1.9
Esteban German* - $1.4
Joel Peralta* - $1.1
Joakim Soria - $1
Kyle Davies* - $1
Joey Gathright* - $0.5
Brian Bannister - $0.45
Ryan Shealy, Alex Gordon, Tony Pena Jr., Billy Butler, Alberto Callaspo, Robinson Tejada - $0.42 each
Shane Costa, Neal Musser, Mike Aviles, Devon Lowery, Carlos Rosa, Jairo Cuevas, Jeff Fulchino, Kila Ka'aihue, Mario Lisson, Mitch Maier, Brayan Pena, Julio Pimentel, Henry Barrera, Rule V pick** - $0.4.

* = arbitration eligible. Approximate salary figure.
** = unknown player until the Rule V draft in December.

The above 40 man roster will cost the Royals $72.52 million in 2009. Plus the Royals still owe Yasuhiko Yabuta $3 million in salary for 2009 and an additional $500 thousand buyout of his 2010 option giving the team a player salary commitment of $76.02 million.

Now there are several issues with this roster. Currently Guillen, Crisp, and DeJesus are locks for the outfield leaving one spot for Teahen, Costa, Gathright and possibily Maier as a backup. Well Teahen, Costa and Gathright are all out of options and would have to clear waivers or be released outright if they fail to make the 2009 team. Likewise we have three catchers who are all out of options as well leaving one to be cut. The infield has Gordon, Aviles, Callaspo, Jacobs and Gload as locks for the roster unless traded leaving just 2 more spots open on the 25 man roster assuming a 12 man pitching staff. So Butler, Shealy, German, Pena Jr., and any free agent addition is left fighting over those last 2 spots. My thinking is one of Butler and Shealy would take a spot rotating in with Gload and Jacobs at 1B and DH and German and Pena Jr. would fight for the backup infielder job.

So let's say that German is cut in favor of Pena Jr. and Costa is kept as the backup outfielder with Maier in Omaha. Then the club deals John Buck for a prospect and keeps Pena as a backup catcher. (This scenerio saves the club the most money.) That means that German, Buck, Teahen, Gathright, and possibily Shealy get cut from the roster. For this scenerio lets say Shealy is gone too as Butler makes the team. So that is $8.12 million dollars shaved off of the team payroll. Now we have a payroll of $67.9 million. Dayton would still have on his offseason list a starting pitcher, preferrably left-handed, relief help and a middle infielder. You can see why Dayton is not planning on doing much shopping in free agency. What Dayton needs to do is flip those players who aren't in the plans anyway for role players who fill the needs just mentioned.

So what can we get for Teahen, German, Gathright, Buck, Shealy/Ross Gload plus about $5 - $7 million? That is what Dayton Moore has been busy finding out. There are rumors out there of a Mark Teahen for Sean Marshall trade with the Cubs. Marshall is a LHSP who will likely make $420k next season. What would the Padres, Reds, or Brewers give up in return for Buck? I could see Gload fitting in well with the Mariners, Cardinals or Giants. As for free agents, the Royals could be looking at players like Willie Bloomquist, David Eckstein, Nick Punto, Ramon Vazquez and Felipe Lopez in the middle infield but I expect them to do most of their player acquisition through trades. What are some other players that you feel like the Royals could acquire this winter? Please post your thoughts in the comments section.